Professor David Walwyn IAMOT 2017 Building the Hydrogen Economy through Niche Experimentation and Digitalisation Professor David Walwyn IAMOT 2017

Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle Win a CD: what vehicle is this and what is the fuel consumption?

Overview of Presentation Technological Innovation Systems used to analyse supports supports Sustainability Transitions Hydrogen Economy South Africa Digitisation (Grid Management) & Fuel Cell-Based Public Transport essential to achieve

Sources of Energy Source: IEA Statistics ,2015

Sankey Diagram (Global; EJ) Direct Consumption 138 Coal 137 Industry 105 Transport 173 Natural Gas 105 Power Production 173 Residential 173 Renewables Hydro, Biomass, Solar and Wind 73 Refineries and Other Transformation 181 Services 173 Nuclear 29 Non-Energy 35 Power Losses 118 Oil 173 Refinery Losses 34 Losses 146

Sankey Diagram (South Africa; TWh/annum) Oil and Oil Products 340 Natural Gas 45 Nuclear 42 Renewables (Biomass/PV/Wind) 184 Power Plants 786 Non-Energy 50 Transport 208 Electricity 194 Heating 202 Coal 1,185 Liquification 197

South Africa’s Carbon Footprint (million MT/annum)

Meeting COP21 in South Africa; decarbonising energy, transport & industry Biogas 20 Solar PV 300 Nuclear 42 Biomass 100 Hydrogen to Fuels 200 Electrolysis Fuel Cell 50 Non-Energy Transport 208 Electricity Heating Wind

Schematic of Hydrogen Fuel Cell (FC) Gas Diffusion Layer Electrolyte Cathode Anode e- O2 Air H2 Electric Current

Hydrogen Value Chain (South Africa)

South Africa and Platinum Why are fuel cells important to South Africa? South Africa’s output is 5.2 million ounces, equivalent to 72% of the total global production 41% of platinum market covers two applications within internal combustion engines (ICEs), hardening of spark plug tips (to prevent corrosion) auto-catalysts (to oxidise exhaust gases). Neither of these applications will be required for battery electric vehicles Given that the platinum loading is 0.5 to 1 g/kW, the annual platinum requirement for a scenario of a purely FC powered new car market would be about 90 million ounces

Existing FC Components Markets > $500 million

Perspectives on Global Markets There are not yet any profitable companies No viable applications with the exception of the use of fuel cells to convert freely-available hydrogen at the premises of existing chlor-alkali facilities to electricity and ‘island installations

Critical Development Targets A reduction in the cost of hydrogen conversion and increased cost- efficiency of electrolysers is required for scaling the hydrogen economy Growing pressure to phase out the use of diesel in public transport/heavy vehicles (McClellan, 1987). As a result, buses and underground mining capital equipment could be the earliest viable option for fuel cell technology and particularly for PEMFC

Theoretical Framework Can new technologies in support of sustainability transitions become more dominant within their respective market applications? Two approaches were selected for this study, namely the framework of technological innovation systems (TIS) (Bergek et al., 2008; Hekkert et al., 2011); and Theoretical understanding of sustainability transitions (Markard et al., 2012), in particular the concept of niche management (Schot and Geels, 2008).

TIS 7 broad key areas that need to be addressed in the maturation of emerging innovation systems (Hekkert et al., 2011) entrepreneurial experimentation and production (F1); knowledge development (F2); knowledge exchange and diffusion (F3); guidance of the search (F4); market formation (F5); resource mobilization (F6); and legitimation or counteracting resistance to change (F7).

Assessment Questionnaire-based Overall system still in its formative phase

Niche Experimentation Crucial demand side interventions which need to be driven by government: use of fuel cells in the metropolitan public transport sector. Buses operate on a round trip basis, which reduces the need for a distribution hydrogen infrastructure, and the present use of diesel in the inner city is considered to raise levels of dangerous particulates Digital technologies will be critical to the management of supply fluctuations induced from an increasing dependence on renewable resources Although integration of relatively low levels of renewables has not yet presented major concerns, this will not be the case at higher levels of penetration (Chudy et al., 2015), and the issue has already received widespread attention, becoming a subject of global research (Morales et al., 2013)

Component Strategy Most of the short-term opportunities lie in the area of components and it is recommended that HySA should pursue a more aggressive strategy in this category. Current market share targets of centres are too conservative (<0.5%) Strategy should more aggressively target international markets for catalyst, inks, membrane electrode assemblies and stacks, including catalyst applications outside of PEMFC such as PAFC which also use platinum. A strategy of more active marketing of fuel cell/electrolyser components will help to build relationships with the main fuel cell companies Particularly, work to ensure that platinum will survive the likely decline of the internal combustion engine. PEMFC has a number of advantages in the automotive sector relative to alternative technologies, and could become the dominant technology.

Other Recommendations Medium and Long Term strategy Fuel Cell Power Plants with Combined Heat and Power: conversion of surplus hydrogen at single sites; Stationary: fuel cell power plants using surplus hydrogen, rural electrification, small- scale mission critical applications; Hydrogen Generators (ex-Electrolysis): single-site large scale users of pure hydrogen (Eskom, food industry, manufacturing). Longer term, the market for FCEVs could overwhelm all other fuel cell products but there are two critical price points, the capital cost of a fuel cell, which needs to decrease from the present level of >$3,000/kW to $1,500/kW, cost of hydrogen ex electrolysis, which must fall from about $130/MWh to $30/MWh (as chemical hydrogen).

Conclusions Hydrogen can play a key role in the COP21 implementation Use of TIS provides a high level of insight on the priorities for a fuel cell innovation system Niche management seen as a critical area for public sector (Government) intervention public transport grid management

Answers to the Question?

Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle What vehicle is this? Riverside Rasa What is the fuel consumption? 250 mpg (a conventional ICE is 35 mpg)