Presentation European Society Historical Demography “The history of cohabitation in Mexico, 1930-2010” Leuven (B), 31/8 – 3/9 2016 Ron Lesthaeghe (Vrije Universiteit Brussel ) Albert Esteve (Centre d’Estudis Demogràfics) Julieta Quilodrán (Colegio de México) Antonio López-Gay (Centre d’Estudis Demogràfics) Julián López-Colás (Centre d’Estudis Demogràfics)

Overview Data: IPUMS individual census records, all censuses from 1930-2010. Part of large project with highest levels of geographical detail for most countries, from Alaska to Tierra del Fuego, hence multilevel analyses (2 levels: individual+region/municipalities). Just published: ESTEVE, A.; R. LESTHAEGHE, R. (eds), 2016: Marriage and Cohabitation in the Americas: Historical Legacies and Recent Trends, Springer Verlag. Mexican analysis: Historical overview possible thanks to the 1930 census records for most states and native groups. Here: data for indigenous groups, states, municipalities, education groups and cohorts. Detailed multilevel analysis thanks to information for municipalities for last three censuses (1990, 2000, 2010). The history of cohabitation in Mexico, 1930-2010 31/8- 3/9/ 2016

Sierra Madre Occidental Sierra Nayar Llanura Costal Golfo Syst. Volc. Central Yucatan Sierra Madre Sur Sierra Chiapas Golfo Tehuantepec The history of cohabitation in Mexico, 1930-2010 31/8- 3/9/ 2016

% share cohabitation among women in union, Mexican indigenous populations, 1930-2010 HIGH: SMOc Sierra Madre Occidental SNA Sierra de Nayar SCH Sierra Chiapas MIDDLE: LCG Llanura Costera Golfo SMSu Sierra Madre Sur Gteh Golfo Tehuantepec LOW: SVC Systema Volcanico Central. YUC Yucatan The history of cohabitation in Mexico, 1930-2010 31/8- 3/9/ 2016

1960 1930 1990 1980 2000 2010 Proportion cohabiting among women 25-29 in union. 1930-2010 1990 1980 2000 2010 The history of cohabitation in Mexico, 1930-2010 31/8- 3/9/ 2016

Proportion cohabiting among women 25-29 in union. Mexican states 1930 FIXED ORDER LOW TO HIGH AS OF 1960 *1930: 8 States no data The history of cohabitation in Mexico, 1930-2010 31/8- 3/9/ 2016

Percentage share cohabitation among all women in a union, Mexican States 1930-2010 The history of cohabitation in Mexico, 1930-2010 31/8- 3/9/ 2016

Percentage cohabitation women 25-29 by education. 1960*-2010 Indicator in 1930 (not included 8 states without data) Illiterate 29.38 Literate 14.03 *University 1960: sample too small. 1970 probably also (few cases). The history of cohabitation in Mexico, 1930-2010 31/8- 3/9/ 2016

Proportion cohabiting among partnered by single years at 3 censuses Proportion cohabiting among partnered by single years at 3 censuses. Mexico 1990-2010 The history of cohabitation in Mexico, 1930-2010 31/8- 3/9/ 2016

Share cohabitation among women in union, by cohort, No more than primary education, Mexico 1965-69 1940-44 The history of cohabitation in Mexico, 1930-2010 31/8- 3/9/ 2016

Share cohabitation among women in union, by cohort, education= secondary completed, Mexico The history of cohabitation in Mexico, 1930-2010 31/8- 3/9/ 2016

Mexican municipalities 1990 2000 Mexican municipalities 2010 The history of cohabitation in Mexico, 1930-2010 31/8- 3/9/ 2016

Proportion cohabiting among women 25-29 in union. 2010 The history of cohabitation in Mexico, 1930-2010 31/8- 3/9/ 2016

Cohabitation in Mexico 1930-2010– Conclusions: Highly differentiated incidence of cohabitation 1930, strong indigenous contrasts. Generally: populations with a pre-Columbian history of state formation, settled agriculture, castes, marriage rituals in Central Mexico and Yucatan had LOW levels of cohabitation in the 1930 census. Highest levels among northern nomadic population and Chiapas ethnic groups (consistent with Goody-Borerup hypothesis). Decline of cohabitation till 1990 census (until cohort of 1960-64), followed by major UNIVERSAL increase. Phase 1: increasing pro-marriage, expansion state/church control and “embourgeoisement” (European dominant cultural model); Phase 2: reversal, and catching up among higher social strata (SDT consistent). Classic cross-sectional profiles persist at individual level; also cross-sectional historical factors at municipal level are significant (e.g. secularization level (+), incidence Protestantism (-), ethic traditions (+), poverty levels (+)). Pattern of disadvantage highly visible, in addition to other historical/cultural determinants. Overarching positive trend from the 1990s onward, upward evolution continues. Other SDT features to be expected (longer cohabitation spells, rise extra-marital fertility among older women, postponement of first births upper strata). But effects of pattern of disadvantage likely to remain (e.g. high teenage fertility). The history of cohabitation in Mexico, 1930-2010 31/8- 3/9/ 2016

research funded by WORLDFAM ERC-2009-StG-240978 Thank you. Ron Lesthaeghe Albert Esteve Julieta Quilodrán Antonio López-Gay Julián López-Colás rlesthaeghe@yahoo.com aesteve@ced.uab.es research funded by WORLDFAM ERC-2009-StG-240978 137 : Cohabitation Across the Americas April/01/2016

research funded by WORLDFAM ERC-2009-StG-240978 Supplementary slides useful for discussion part research funded by WORLDFAM ERC-2009-StG-240978 137 : Cohabitation Across the Americas April/01/2016

Estimated odds ratios of cohabiting as opposed to being married for Mexican women 25-29 in a union, results for individual level variables, Mexico 2000 and 2010 Notes: All the coefficients are statistically significant at p<0.001 except *: p<0.05 and **: p<0.01 The initial variance between municipalities in the zero models without covariates was 1.06 in 2000 and 0.65 in 2010

Estimated odds ratios from a multilevel logistic regression model of unmarried cohabitation by contextual characteristics at the municipality, women 25-29 in a union, Mexico 2000 and 2010 (complete model) Notes: All the coefficients are statistically significant at p<0.001 except *: p<0.05 and **: p<0.01 The Remaining variance municipalities in 2000 is 1.06* in the empty model, and 1.10* after controlling for the individual variables (see Model 2). The same values in 2010 are: 0.65 and 0.66 respectively

MÉXICO. Estados o Entidades Federales Aguascalientes The history of cohabitation in Mexico, 1930-2010 31/8- 3/9/ 2016

Percent cohabiting among partnered women age 25-29 in Mexican states, 1930-2010 * States without data not included in total. Source: Author’s tabulations based on census samples from IPUMS-International and INEGI

research funded by WORLDFAM ERC-2009-StG-240978 Thank you. Ron Lesthaeghe Albert Esteve Julieta Quilodrán Antonio López-Gay Julián López-Colás rlesthaeghe@yahoo.com aesteve@ced.uab.es research funded by WORLDFAM ERC-2009-StG-240978 137 : Cohabitation Across the Americas April/01/2016