Economic Forecast Review ERCOT Calvin Opheim October 12, 2012

Outline Forecast Overview Economic Forecast Review

Forecast Overview To create a long-term load forecast requires: Employment or economic data forecast for each county for the duration of the forecasting time-frame Hourly weather forecast for each weather zone which will be used for each forecasting year These values are used by forecasting models to create the hourly demand forecasts for ERCOT The employment forecast drives the long-term energy and demand forecast since the weather forecast is constant

Economic Assumptions Moody’s provides ERCOT with three county-level economic forecasts: Base High economic growth Low economic growth Which forecast should be used?

Moody’s Non-Farm Employment Scenarios – 11/8/2011 2009 to 2022 AAGR Low 1.8% Base 2.3% High 2.8% 2000 to 2009 0.9% AAGR AAGR – annual average growth rate

Moody’s Non-Farm Employment Scenarios – 11/8/2011 2012 to 2015 AAGR Low 3.2% Base 3.7% High 4.3% 8/30 update 3.3% 2003 – 2008 had a 3.0% AAGR in non-farm employment AAGR – annual average growth rate

Energy and Non-Farm Employment AAGR – annual average growth rate

Historical Non-Farm Employment Forecasts (low case)

Historical Non-Farm Employment Forecasts (base case)

Historical Non-Farm Employment Forecasts

Historical Non-Farm Employment Forecasts

Actual Non-Farm Employment Data

Summary ERCOT reviews the non-farm employment forecasts ERCOT has added an additional provider of economic data (Woods and Poole) in 2012 ERCOT is exploring receiving additional economic forecasts from Moody’s

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