UVM Legislative Summit November 17, Vermont’s 21st Century Economy

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Presentation transcript:

UVM Legislative Summit November 17, 2015 Vermont’s 21st Century Economy Mathew Barewicz Economic & Labor Market Information Division Vermont Department of Labor 802.828.4153 www.vtlmi.info

Thank you Employment & Training Administration! E&LMI? The Economic & Labor Market Information Division housed in the Vermont Department of Labor state partner to the federal government 100% federally funded Purpose: - to produce, explain and disseminate economic data for the benefit of the State of Vermont to elected officials, educational institutes, employers, students, job-seekers, researchers, and the general public. Thank you Employment & Training Administration! www.vtlmi.info

Task PLEASE: Ask questions or make comments as you see fit to create an opportunity for Vermont policy makers to learn from researchers, business owners and government leaders about current initiatives, successes, challenges, and future opportunities in our effort to move forward toward our goal of economic prosperity for all Vermonters. PLEASE: Ask questions or make comments as you see fit Look to adopt standard definitions of “common” words Unemployment, Labor Force, Discouraged Worker etc… Challenge the data! Contact us to have discussions or get additional information www.vtlmi.info

“The Great Recession”… www.vtlmi.info

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Leading & Lagging Leading the Way: Non-Durable Manufacturing Professional & Business Services Health Care Leisure & Hospitality Looking to Recover: Construction Retail Durable Manufacturing Financial Activities www.vtlmi.info

Current Status Total employment above pre-recessionary levels with regional variations Metro driven recovery nationwide Low levels of unemployment Vermont currently 8th lowest Burlington NECTA currently 36th lowest (out of 387) The economy is looking for the next big thing… www.vtlmi.info

Labor Supply

www.vtlmi.info

Three Primary Factors: Aging of the Population Explaining the U.S. Decline in Labor Force Participation Council of Economic Advisors1 Three Primary Factors: Aging of the Population Cyclical declines in line with past recessions. Other factors Significant increase in Long-Term unemployment. Other demographic factors www.vtlmi.info

The Start or the End of a Trend The Start or the End of a Trend? Changes in the Labor Force Participation Rate www.vtlmi.info

BLS Forecast of US Labor Force Participation www.vtlmi.info

BLS Forecast of US Labor Force Participation (cont.) www.vtlmi.info

Labor Demand

VT Occupational Projections 2012-22 www.vtlmi.info

VT Occupational Projections 2012-22 www.vtlmi.info

VT Occupational Projections 2012-22 www.vtlmi.info

Summary of Labor Demand www.vtlmi.info

Educational Attainment of Vermont Adults

Challenges of Assessing Workforce Needs www.vtlmi.info

Conclusions Data is not “Good” or “Bad”; data is. Focused participation in the labor force Internships, apprenticeships, job-shadows, etc. Meaningful access to all levels of education and training www.vtlmi.info

Thank you! Mathew Barewicz Economic & Labor Market Information Division Vermont Department of Labor 802.828.4153 mathew.barewicz@vermont.gov www.vtlmi.info