The Long-Term Effects of Universal Primary Education: March 2017 The Long-Term Effects of Universal Primary Education: Evidence from Ethiopia, Malawi, and Uganda Carina Omoeva, Director, Research and Evaluation Wael Moussa, Research Scientist, Research and Evaluation

Long-term: Did gains in schooling translate into … Research Questions Medium-term: Did the expansion of tuition-free primary education in Eastern Africa impact attainment? Long-term: Did gains in schooling translate into … improved adolescent sexual, fertility, and marriage behavior? Improved labor market returns (labor force activity, employment, salaried employment)?

However, gains in schooling only translated to… Preview of Findings Mean years of schooling increased as a result of UPE in all three countries Gains among females were higher than for males Literacy gains also higher among females relative to males Across all countries, gains in schooling translate to benefits in the form of lower likelihood… to engage in sexual activity to get married to give birth However, gains in schooling only translated to… increased employment in Ethiopia shift in employment type in Malawi and Uganda

Current literature on effects of UPE is sparse Why is this important? Current literature on effects of UPE is sparse includes effects on access and enrollment, but not long-term effects Sub-Saharan Africa underwent aggressive expansion of access to primary education Especially in the last 15 years with several African countries pursuing similar strategy UPE policies had explicit focus on gender equity Implications on effectiveness of free-tuition policies—at least at the primary level

Contributions to the Literature Our research examines direct effects of UPE (at a national scale) on educational attainment Evaluate UPE at least 20 years post-implementation Affected populations are now adults, so we can assess the effects on post-schooling outcomes Add to existing literature by investigating outcomes beyond access and/or primary completion Use UPE as an instrumental variable to identify causal links between schooling and early adult outcomes

Country Context Ethiopia eliminated school fees starting in 1994 in primary education and first two years of secondary Implemented at a time when country underwent regime change Implementation was not smooth as not all woredas (districts) adopted the policy at the same time UPE was fully implemented by 1996 Malawi originally followed a staggered implementation schedule starting in 1991 and 1992 eliminating school fees in primary 1 and primary 2, respectively In 1994, country opted to follow the ‘big bang’ approach and provide tuition-free access to all primary school nationwide In addition to free tuition, learning materials were provided and school uniform requirements were removed

First Eligible Cohorts Country Context Uganda instituted a free and compulsory primary school policy in 1996, which went into effect in 1997 Implementation was nationwide and simultaneous— also followed the ‘big bang’ approach Tuition became free, textbooks were provided at no charge, and school uniforms were no longer required Country Policy Year Eligible Age First Eligible Cohorts LSMS Year DHS Year Ethiopia 1994 7 - 12 years 1982 - 1987 2013 2011 Malawi 6 - 13 years 1981 - 1988 2010 Uganda 1997 6 - 12 years 1985 - 1991

Country Context

Data Data are drawn from two sources: World Bank’s Living Standards Measurement Survey (LSMS) and the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS)—for all three countries LSMS provides data on schooling attainment and labor market outcomes DHS provides data on schooling attainment coupled with behaviors regarding sexual activity, fertility, and marriage prior to 18th birthday Restrict analytic samples to cohorts who are between 22 and 42 years old at the time of the most recent survey (LSMS)

UPE eligibility is composed of two groups: Empirical Strategy Treat schooling as endogenous with UPE eligibility as instrumental variables UPE eligibility is composed of two groups: Partial exposure – these are cohorts who were eligible for UPE but not from start of primary school Full exposure – cohorts who were UPE eligible for a full primary school cycle As a result, First stage regressions capture impacts of UPE assignment on years of schooling Second stage regressions capture causal effects of schooling on outcomes via UPE mechanism Effects are local (LATE) and not general

We run the following two-stage least squares (2SLS) regression system Empirical Strategy We run the following two-stage least squares (2SLS) regression system First stage: δ 1 and δ 2 capture ITT effects of UPE on schooling completion Second stage: Parameter of interest is λ, which captures the causal relationship between schooling and outcomes If exclusion restrictions are satisfied If instruments are not weak

UPE and Years of Schooling

UPE and Years of Schooling – Malawi

UPE and Years of Schooling – Uganda

First Stage Results Male Female LSMS DHS Pr(Literate) Schooling   Male Female LSMS DHS Pr(Literate) Schooling Ethiopia: Eligible for UPE by age 7 0.133*** 0.625** 0.233*** 1.570*** 1.412*** (0.031) (0.268) (0.026) (0.189) (0.129) Eligible for UPE by age 12 -0.003 0.627*** 0.009 0.257 0.339*** (0.236) (0.024) (0.161) (0.117) Malawi: Eligible for UPE by age 6 0.018 -0.196 0.042** 0.795*** 0.283*** (0.017) (0.221) (0.019) (0.091) Eligible for UPE by age 11 0.047*** 0.215 0.116*** 0.485** 1.253*** (0.018) (0.208) (0.021) (0.196) (0.087) Uganda: 0.013 -1.734*** 0.059* -0.741 -0.145 (0.037) (0.615) (0.035) (0.466) (0.303) 0.086*** 0.275 0.170*** 2.120*** 1.393*** (0.028) (0.331) (0.030) (0.369) (0.244)

Second Stage Results – Adolescent Behavior   Teen sex Teen marriage Teen birth Ethiopia: Sample mean 0.696 0.646 0.413 Schooling (IV) -0.042** -0.075*** -0.102*** (0.019) (0.024) (0.026) Malawi: 0.644 0.551 0.386 -0.057*** -0.029* -0.033** (0.015) Uganda: 0.511 0.203 -0.061*** -0.064*** -0.058*** (0.017) (0.018)

Second Stage Results – Adolescent Behavior If we translate the UPE schooling gains to estimated returns to schooling, then… Probability of age at first sexual activity < 18 years decreased by 10.8% in Ethiopia, 17.4% in Malawi, and 30.8% in Uganda Probability of age at first marriage < 18 years decreased by 16% in Ethiopia, 8% in Malawi, and 10.8% in Uganda Probability of age at first birth < 18 years Decreased by 17.1% in Ethiopia, 18.8% in Malawi, and 35.8% in Uganda

Second Stage Results – Labor Market Outcomes   Active Employed Salaried Poor Ethiopia: Sample mean 0.646 0.504 0.07 0.355 Schooling (IV) 0.023 0.046 0.007 -0.009 (0.030) (0.035) (0.016) (0.019) Malawi: 0.801 0.62 0.065 0.374 -0.019 0.032 0.080*** -0.025* (0.053) (0.061) (0.031) (0.014) Uganda: 0.908 0.826 0.102 0.358 -0.006 0.010 0.024 -0.013 (0.026) (0.028) (0.015)

Second Stage Results – Labor Market Outcomes If we translate the UPE schooling gains to estimated returns to schooling, then… Probability of being active in the labor force increased by 6.4% in Ethiopia, close to zero effect in Malawi or Uganda Probability of being employed increased by 16.4% in Ethiopia, 7.7% in Malawi, and no effect in Uganda Probability of salaried employment Increased by 18% in Ethiopia, 184% in Malawi, and 29.4% in Uganda Probability of being in poverty Decreased by 10% in Malawi, 4.5% in Uganda, and no effect in Ethiopia

Policy Implications and Discussion UPE is an effective policy tool to boost schooling/attainment We provide evidence that more schooling lowers the incidence of sexual activity, marriage, and child birth among adolescents or younger Estimated effect sizes are consistent with literature evaluating small-scale programs in the same/similar countries See Erulkar and Muthengi (2009), Baird et al. (2010), Bandiera et al. (2010), among others This implies that the mechanism of subsidizing education can be effective in influencing non-educational outcomes at a national scale

Policy Implications and Discussion Employment effects of schooling are shown to be somewhat small in all three countries However, we observe an increase in salaried employment in Malawi and Uganda This would imply that the increase in schooling may not have greatly influenced the overall labor market, but created a shift in the employment composition Effects on poverty were relatively small as well since only a small proportion is able to move out of the bottom 40% of wealth

Further Research Is subsidizing education to improve health/fertility/marriage outcomes more cost-effective than a targeted intervention/policy? Increased schooling yields lower returns in the labor market relative to the returns from adolescent behavior Lends support to the hypothesis that more schooling may not always mean more learning and skill acquisition