Bipolarity Deterrence Arms Control Rationality Multipolarity

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Presentation transcript:

Bipolarity Deterrence Arms Control Rationality Multipolarity First Nuclear Age, 1945-90s Second Nuclear Age, 1990s to present Bipolarity balance Deterrence vulnerability Arms Control Managing rivalry Rationality Multipolarity asymmetry Deterrence missile defense Arms Control coercion Rationality

Second Nuclear Age, 1990s to present Multipolarity asymmetry Deterrence missile defense Arms Control coercion Rationality

1. Multipolarity More players in the game Several levels of relationships Almost all are asymmetric Strategic Level Regional Level Terrorism?

Estimated Nuclear Forces, 2016 (from Center for Security Studies, ETH Zurich)

A. Strategic level US and Russia: rough equality Strategic Offensive Reductions Treaty (SORT) 2002 New START Treaty 2010

China Chinese nuclear capability Chinese nuclear doctrine US Annual Report on Chinese Military Power

Table 1. Chinese nuclear forces, 2013. Hans M. Kristensen, and Robert S. Norris Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists 2013;69:79-85 Copyright © by Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists

Chinese MRBM and ICBM Ranges from US Report on Chinese Military Power, p. 82

B. Regional Level South Asia Middle East East Asia

South Asia

India Missile Ranges

Pakistani Missile Ranges

East Asia North Korea: Nuclear tests October 9, 2006 (first test)

Missile Ranges

THAAD to be Deployed in South Korea

THAAD

The Middle East Iran: No tests yet, but 2007 US National Intelligence Estimate 2013 IAEA Report 2015 JCPOA

C. Terrorism? AQAM US Invasion of Iraq 2003 Coup in Pakistan Iranian allies: Hezbollah?

2. Deterrence Three Modifications to Cold War Deterrence Dealing with the regional threat Missile Defense Prompt Global Strike Use of Nuclear Weapons against Non-Nuclear States

A. Missile Defense Strategic Defense Initiative: Reagan’s SDI speech, March 23, 1983

NMD: Deterrence by Denial National Missile Defense Act of 1999 US Missile Defense Agency The missile defense system NMD test videos BMD Review 2010

GW Bush and Obama

B. Prompt Global Strike GW Bush Nuclear Posture Review 2001 Summary Obama Nuclear Posture Review 2010 US Strategic Command: JFCC Global Strike Amy F. Woolf, “Conventional Prompt Global Strike and Long-Range Ballistic Missiles: Background and Issues.” Congressional Research Service. April 26, 2013

Why Conventional PGS? Speed Vulnerability of forward bases Preemption Option to stay below nuclear threshold

C. Use of Nuclear Weapons against Non-Nuclear States

3. Arms Control Strategic Arms Control: US and Russia Strategic Offensive Reductions Treaty (SORT) 2002 New START Treaty 2010 US and China: nothing

Regional Powers? Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty 1968 (1970) International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)

Problems? Never Signed NPT Israel India Pakistan Violated Treaty Provisions Iraq Iran North Korea

Coercion, Sanctions, Talks North Korea Six Party Talks UNSC Resolution 1718 (2006) Iran P5 + 1 Talks UNSC Resolution 1929 (2010) 2015 JCPOA

Missile Technology Control Regime

4. Rationality If leaders of these states are rational… Extortion is their policy If leaders of these states are irrational… How do we deal with them?

Larger Question Does Deterrence Work? GW Bush answer

Terrorists Rationality? Hamas or AQAM? Rationality of groups that use suicide bombing?