Developing the Fourth National Climate Assessment: Progress and Plans David Reidmiller, USGCRP Director, National Climate Assessment 15 minute talk. Abstract: Building on the success of the Third National Climate Assessment (NCA), NCA4, with an anticipated release in 2018, will provide an in-depth focus on the impacts of climate change on natural and human systems at the regional level and what is being done to address those risks. Ten regional chapters, including a new chapter for the US Caribbean (Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands), will serve as the centerpiece of NCA4. A new and notable addition is a chapter explicitly focused on transboundary North American and other international effects, exploring the development, national security, and economic aspects of climate change. The scientific underpinning of NCA4 is provided by a number of thematic assessment products, including the upcoming 2nd State of the Carbon Cycle Report and Climate Science Special Report, and the recent Climate and Health Assessment, among other tools like State Fact Sheets, the Climate Resilience Toolkit, and scenarios products. In addition to an update on NCA4 process and progress, we discuss the importance of robust engagement and collaboration throughout the development of NCA4, highlighting USGCRP participation in ongoing dialogues with science and policy experts at the international, state, city, and tribal levels, and with external stakeholders, such as NCAnet. 2017 Joint NACP and Ameriflux PI Meeting 27 March 2017

This slide might help frame the discussion for the audience, to talk about the different goals of USGCRP, how the carbon cycle fits in with this – the audience is notably doing the research and the cutting edge work, SOCCR2 is helping to assess the state of the carbon cycle research and communicate those results, and the NCA is another important piece within the framework of USGCRP

National Climate Assessment: A Congressionally-mandated endeavor Global Change Research Act of 1990 (Section 106): …not less frequently than every 4 years, the Council… shall prepare… an assessment which – integrates, evaluates, and interprets the findings of the Program (USGCRP) and discusses the scientific uncertainties associated with such findings; analyzes the effects of global change on the natural environment, agriculture, energy production and use, land and water resources, transportation, human health and welfare, human social systems, and biological diversity; and analyzes current trends in global change, both human- induced and natural, and projects major trends for the subsequent 25 to 100 years. The NCA is a Congressionally-mandated, quadrennial report that aims to integrates, evaluates, and interprets the findings of the Program (USGCRP) and analyzes the effects and current trends of global change for the subsequent 25 to 100 years.

Building on the Success of NCA3 Five aspects of NCA3 (2014) were crucial to its success: Assessment based on broad scientific and technical inputs Stakeholder engagement Clear communication principles Transparency of process and information An extensive review process The last NCA has been widely lauded domestically and abroad. A number of factors played into its success. Most notably, these include: (1) robust technical inputs, (2) broad stakeholder engagement, (3) adhering to clear communication principles, (4) providing transparency to the process and the information, and (5) having an extensive multi-phase review process.

What’s New with NCA4? Process Substance Led by a Federal Steering Committee Each chapter has a Federal Coordinating Lead Author (CLA) and either a Fed or non-Fed Chapter Lead Substance Sustained Assessment framework and process Climate Science Special Report underway to provide scientific foundation Interim special assessments provide valuable input (SOCCR-2, Health, Food) Regional chapters will be given more in-depth treatment Sectoral chapters will draw upon the regional chapters, providing brief national overviews A variety of new climate tools & information More risk-based framing In keeping with our quadrennial timeline, the planned release for NCA4 is late 2018. Rather than being led by a Federal Advisory Committee, NCA4 is led by a Federal Steering Committee with 12 of the 13 USGCRP member agencies represented. As I just mentioned, we are now moving out with the sustained assessment framework and process with the Climate Science Special Report underway to provide the scientific foundation Beyond that, the NCA4 authorship model has been developed in collaboration with NOAA who is serving as the administrative lead for this report In addition, another significant shift is that the regional chapters of NCA4 will be emphasized even more than in NCA3 As opposed to the sectoral chapters, which will draw upon regional information and focus on higher level, national overviews of topics (water, energy, forests, etc.). I will speak more about these regional and sectoral interactions shortly. We’re also developing a variety of new tools and products to facilitate more informed decisionmaking at the local level.

NCA4 Chapters I: Overview II: Our Changing Climate Sectoral Interdependencies & Compounding Stressors: The Science of Complex Systems NEW! II: Our Changing Climate III: National Overviews IV: Regional Chapters Water Northeast Energy Southeast Land Cover and Land Use Change US Caribbean NEW! Forests Midwest Ecosystems, Ecosystem Services, and Biodiversity Northern Great Plains Southern Great Plains Coastal Effects Northwest Oceans and Marine Resources Southwest Agriculture and Rural Communities Alaska Built Environment, Urban Systems, and Cities Hawai`i and Pacific Islands V: Response Transportation Air Quality NEW! Near-term Adaptation Needs and Increased Resiliency Human Health Tribal and Indigenous Communities Mitigation: Avoiding and Reducing Long- term Risks Climate Effects on U.S. International Interests NEW! } EXPANDED! Multiple rounds of comments have informed our current NCA4 chapter list, and new chapters like air quality and international effects have emerged in response. In addition, the US Caribbean has been split out from the Southeast regional chapter, and the Great Plains have been split into the Northern and Southern Great Plains so as not to have a chapter that spans the Mexican to Canadian borders.

How SOCCR-2 can Inform NCA4

Elements to Incorporate in Chapters Case Studies – Best if written by people who represent the community being discussed Adaptation / Social Science – Highlight potential actions that can minimize risks, barriers to adaptation planning and ways to overcome them; include economic analysis where literature allows. Populations of Concern – Describe the unique situations faced by disadvantaged and/or vulnerable communities whose risk may be greater than the general population Urban & Rural; Tribal & Indigenous; Coastal Considerations – These cross-cutting issues have been highlighted by public comments as important to incorporate throughout NCA4 Research Needs – Note critical scientific gaps that preclude more effective / informed response actions

2016 Processes and guidance developed by the Steering Committee Chapter leadership recruited Many author teams are complete; some are still recruiting authors Author teams are scoping out their chapters and developing chapter outlines 2017 Jan 15: Technical Inputs are due Jan-Mar: Regional Engagement Workshops and Author Team Meetings Apr: Author Meeting Jan-Jun: Drafting and Internal Reviews Jul-Sep: Report Aggregation and Reviews and Author Responses Sep-Jan 2018: Public and National Academies Reviews 2018 Jan: Responses to Public Review Jan-Feb: Revisions in response to National Academies comments Mar-Aug: Reviews and Responses Sep-Dec: Layout and Final Production Dec+ : Release and Engagement Dates are subject to change

Recent and Forthcoming Special Assessments Climate Change, Global Food Security, and the U.S. Food System [2015] The Impacts of Climate Change on Human Health in the United States [2016] SOCCR-2: The 2nd State of the Carbon Cycle Report [in progress] Climate Science Special Report [in progress] One core component of Sustained Assessment are traditional assessment products. The Program recently released two: the Climate Change and Human Health Assessment in April 2016 and the Food Security Assessment in December 2015. Two more are quite far in production with the Climate Science Special Report having just finished its public review phase and slated to be released in Fall 2017 as the foundational physical science for the Fourth National Climate Assessment and the Second State of the Carbon Cycle Report expected out in late 2017.

Novel Tools to Incorporate into NCA4 Climate Resilience Toolkit (NOAA) toolkit.climate.gov State Climate Fact Sheets (NOAA) stateclimatesummaries.globalchange.gov Climate Data Initiative (CDI) www.data.gov/climate/ Localized Sea Level Rise / Land Use / Population scenarios (EPA, USGS, etc.) LOCA dataset + GCM weighting Indicators (NOAA, EPA, etc.) www.globalchange.gov/explore/indicators The aim is to make the NCA a dynamic resource - Build from consistent messages or themes across the Regional Chapters. 
 Novel Sustained Assessment products that the Program and associated agencies are developing include the Climate Resilience Toolkit; localized sea level rise, land use, and population scenarios; LOCA datasets; and indicators. These products are essential steps toward our aim of evolving toward making the NCA a “living document” with more case studies, localized information, etc. FYI - LOCA stands for Localized Constructed Analogs, and is a technique for downscaling climate model projections of the future climate.

Additional Specialized Products Climate Change and Indigenous Peoples: A Synthesis of Current Impacts and Experiences - Key frameworks informing indigenous understandings of climate change impacts and pathways for adaptation and mitigation http://www.treesearch.fs.fed.us/pubs/53156 Climate Change in the United States: Benefits of Global Action (CIRA2.0) - Estimates the physical and monetary benefits to the U.S. of reducing global GHG emissions in 2050 and 2090 for more than 20 sectors www.epa.gov/cira

Extensive Engagement with NCA4 Series of regional NCA process background / information sharing webinars for the public 10 Regional Engagement Workshops using hub-and-satellite model Sector-specific outreach (e.g., Oceans; Coastal Effects; Tribal & Indigenous Communities; Human Health; Mitigation…) Listening Sessions at major conferences and events NCAnet: ncanet.usgcrp.gov Federal Register Notices Prospectus Technical Inputs & Author Nominations Public Engagement (in development) Review Editors (in development) Another focus of the sustained assessment is encouraging and facilitating external engagement and interactions among stakeholders, the Program, and others. Some examples of this include background webinars, ten regional engagement webinars that are slated for the first quarter of 2017, listening sessions at professional society meetings, NCAnet (our network of networks of external collaborators on the NCA), and sector-specific outreach for example around health as well as around tribal and indigenous communities.

Extensive Engagement with NCA4 Series of regional NCA process background / information sharing webinars for the public 10 Regional Engagement Workshops using hub-and-satellite model Sector-specific outreach (e.g., Oceans; Coastal Effects; Tribal & Indigenous Communities; Human Health; Mitigation) Listening Sessions at major conferences and events NCAnet: ncanet.usgcrp.gov Federal Register Notices Prospectus Technical Inputs & Author Nominations Public Engagement (in development) Review Editors (in development)

Ways to Engage with NCA4 Be a Reviewer / Review Editor Join NCAnet Look for opportunities to contribute along the way at globalchange.gov/notices Join NCAnet NCAnet participants extend the NCA to a broad audience through the development of assessment-related capacities and products. More information at ncanet.usgcrp.gov Join the USGCRP Mailing List globalchange.gov/newsletter- signup Find us at future events Association of State Floodplain Managers Apr 30 – May 5 | Kansas City, MO National Adaptation Forum May 9-11 | St. Paul, MN Check out the NCA4 site globalchange.gov/nca4

Contact Us David Reidmiller DReidmiller@usgcrp.gov www.globalchange.gov/nca4 Thank you for your time. I’m happy to take any questions, and the whole NCA4 team is always ready to take any questions you might have.