Freeport Area Master Plan Project

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Presentation transcript:

Freeport Area Master Plan Project Presentation to ERCOT Regional Planning Group

Disclaimer This presentation is being provided for informational purposes only and does not purport to be comprehensive. Neither CenterPoint Energy, Inc., together with its subsidiaries and affiliates (the “Company”), nor its employees or representatives, make any representation or warranty (express or implied) relating to this information. By reviewing this presentation, you agree that the Company will not have any liability related to this information or any omissions or misstatements contained herein. You are encouraged to perform your own independent evaluation and analysis. This presentation and the oral statements made in connection herewith may contain statements concerning our expectations, beliefs, plans, objectives, goals, strategies, future operations, events, financial position, earnings, growth, revenues costs, prospects, objectives, capital investments or performance and underlying assumptions and other statements that are not historical facts. These statements are “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. You should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. Actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied by these statements. You can generally identify our forward-looking statements by the words “anticipate,” “believe,” “continue,” “could,” “estimate,” “expect,” “forecast,” “goal,” “project,” “intend,” “may,” “objective,” “plan,” “potential,” “predict,” “projection,” “should,” “will,” or other similar words. The absence of these words, however, does not mean that the statements are not forward-looking. Forward-looking statements in this presentation include statements about electric load growth and estimated costs. We have based our forward-looking statements on our management's beliefs and assumptions based on information currently available to our management at the time the statements are made. We caution you that assumptions, beliefs, expectations, intentions, and projections about future events may and often do vary materially from actual results. Therefore, we cannot assure you that actual results will not differ materially from those expressed or implied by our forward-looking statements. Some of the factors that could cause actual results to differ from those expressed or implied by our forward-looking statements include but are not limited to the timing and impact of future regulatory, legislative and IRS decisions, financial market conditions, future market conditions, economic and employment conditions, customer growth and other factors described in CenterPoint Energy, Inc.’s Form 10-K for the period ended December 31, 2015 under “Risk Factors” and “Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations - Certain Factors Affecting Future Earnings” and in other filings with the SEC by CenterPoint Energy, which can be found at www.centerpointenergy.com on the Investor Relations page or on the SEC’s website at www.sec.gov. CenterPoint Energy Proprietary and Confidential Information

Freeport Area Master Plan Project The Freeport Area Highly industrialized area with several large chemical facilities as well as a major seaport on the Gulf of Mexico Load pocket located approximately 60 miles south of the Houston metropolitan area 60 Miles Gulf of Mexico

Freeport Area Master Plan Project Need Freeport Master Plan Project essential to: Serve new committed loads in the Freeport Area Maintain transmission grid reliability Provide for future load growth Increase transfer capability to the Freeport Area Allow operating flexibility to take 345 kV scheduled maintenance outages Estimated Cost - $246.74 Million Bridge the Gap Upgrades - $ 32.34 Million (to be completed BP 2019) Includes looping 345 kV line into CenterPoint Energy Jones Creek Substation and installing: one 345/138 kV 800/1000 MVA Autotransformer, two in-line reactors, and three 138 kV capacitor banks at Jones Creek Substation New 345 kV Transmission Line - $ 214.4 Million (to be completed BP 2021) Includes building new 345 kV double circuit transmission line from CenterPoint Energy Bailey Substation and upgrading two 345 kV circuits in the area

Freeport Area Master Plan Project Background – Transmission Projects in Freeport Area since 2012 Freeport Area Upgrades Project Tier 3 Project (In-Service) Convert 69 kV infrastructure to 138 kV Dow-Velasco 345/138 kV Autotransformer Addition Project Add 2nd 800/1000 MVA Auto Jones Creek Project Tier 1 Project (In-Service) New 345/138 kV Substation with 2 autos Oyster Creek Project (under construction) Required PUCT line certification (2Q2017) To serve generator and load customer Projects identified by ERCOT 2016 RTP and 2016 LTSA in conjunction with CNP Four 138 kV capacitor banks at Jones Creek or Velasco

Freeport Area Master Plan Project Background – Current and Expected 2018 Freeport Area Configuration Current Freeport Area Configuration Freeport Area served primarily by: Four 345 kV double-circuit lines from STP and Oasis Four 345/138 kV 800/1000 MVA autotransformers Three 20 mile long 138 kV transmission lines Voltage support provided by 345 kV lines and 345/138 kV autotransformers Small distribution capacitor banks Expected 2018 Freeport Area Configuration 1st 138 kV capacitor bank at Velasco – before peak 2017 1st 138 kV capacitor bank at Jones Creek – December 2017 2nd 138 kV capacitor bank at Velasco – before peak 2018 2nd 138 kV capacitor bank at Jones Creek – before peak 2018

Freeport Area Master Plan Project Background – New Committed Loads New committed loads in Freeport Area: MARINE – 54 MW (2Q2016) – included in 2016 ALDR CAMDEN – 75 MW (2Q2016) – included in 2016 ALDR COPPER – 60 MW (4Q2016) – included in 2016 ALDR LEVEE – 139 MW (3Q2018) – included in 2016 ALDR CORTEZ – 656 MW (3Q2018) – included in 2016 ALDR GLOBAL – 48 MW (2Q2018) – included in 2017 ALDR Submission Dow – 322 MW by 2019 – will be included in: SSWG updates in 2017 and 2018 ALDR Submission Results in a 1340 MW increase (230% increase) to the load seen in the Freeport Area in 2016

Freeport Area Master Plan Project Background – Load Inquiries Under Study Load inquiries under study in Freeport Area: NEWSUB – 54 MW COPPER – 240 MW Freeport LNG New Substation 1 – 48 MW Freeport LNG New Substation 2 – 209 MW Total 550 MW of load inquiries under study in Freeport Area by 2021 If load inquiries under study move forward, by 2021 load in the Freeport Area will add up to 2927 MW (280% increase) to the load seen in the Freeport Area in 2016

Freeport Area Master Plan Project Load Summary Historical Load Load Projections Year 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Total (MW) 777 718 791 904 1028 1194 1695 2369 2373 2925* 2927* Red line indicates Freeport area loads as modeled in 2016 SSWG cases Blue line indicates Freeport area loads as modeled in the Study Cases * Includes non-committed load inquiries under study

Freeport Area Master Plan Project Background – Challenges and Concerns The existing industrial load in the Freeport Area remains constant throughout the year (see below) and the new industrial loads are expected to as well Transmission system challenges if load additions move forward as planned: Severe low voltage, potential voltage collapse Overload on existing 345 kV STP – Dow & STP – Jones Creek circuits Operating flexibility to take outages for maintenance is significantly restricted on 345kV circuit serving the Freeport area due to large portion of load being industrial Inability to serve future industrial load growth

Freeport Area Master Plan Project Base Case vs. Study Case Modeled all new committed loads and load inquiries under study Performed analysis testing against applicable NERC, ERCOT and CenterPoint Energy Transmission System Design Criteria, including Maintenance Outage Scenarios Results show severe loading and voltage concerns P0 (No Contingency): Low 345 kV voltages (< 0.95 pu) beginning in 2021 P1 (Single Contingency): Low 345 kV voltages (< 0.95 pu) beginning in 2019, (< 0.87 pu) in 2020 345 kV circuit overloads (115 - 120 %) beginning in 2021 P2-P7 (Common Mode Contingency): Low 345 kV voltages (< 0.70 pu) beginning in 2019 Overloading on 345 kV circuits (103 - 113 %) Non-convergence indicating voltage collapse beginning in 2019 P6 – Maintenance Outage Scenario (Freeport Area 345 kV) Severe overloading (150 - 200 %) Non-convergence indicating potential voltage collapse beginning in 2019

Freeport Area Master Plan Project Study Approach Option 1 – Upgrade of existing system Upgrade at a minimum 100 miles of 345 kV lines Install large amount of dynamic/static reactive support Earliest completion 2020 Option 2-8 – New 345 kV Transmission Line Long-Term Solution: Build a new 345 kV double-circuit transmission line terminating at the Jones Creek Substation in Freeport Area To be completed before peak 2021 Short-Term Solution: “Bridge the Gap” Upgrades To be completed before peak 2019

Freeport Area Master Plan Project Option 1 – Existing System Upgrade Option 1: Upgrade existing lines and transformers Rebuild (3) 345 kV double-circuit lines (1) 120 MVAr capacitor bank at Jones Creek 3rd 345/138 kV autotransformer at Jones Creek (2) 400 MVAr SVC at Jones Creek (1) 200 MVAr SVC at Freeport Convert Freeport Substation to breaker and half Total Cost $ 453.17 Million Option 1 Concerns Not cost competitive $ 450+ Million Earliest completion Summer Peak 2020 Need for temporary construction Construction while minimizing outages

Freeport Area Master Plan Project Option 2 – 8: Short-Term Solution “Bridge the Gap” Upgrades Upgrades solve all thermal loading and low voltage concerns for 2019 and 2020 Loop in 345 kV STP – DOW circuit 27 into Jones Creek 7-ohm in series reactor on both STP circuits (1) 120 MVAr capacitor bank at Jones Creek 3rd 345/138 kV autotransformer at Jones Creek (2) 140 MVAr automatic switched capacitor banks at Jones Creek Upgrades Total Cost: $32.34 Million However…does not address all needs Does not address maintenance outages Provides little margin for additional load growth beyond 2020

Freeport Area Master Plan Project Option 2 – 8: Short-Term Solution “Bridge the Gap Upgrades” – Transient Stability Analysis Transient stability analysis indicate fast automatically switched capacitor banks were sufficient to achieve desired voltage recovery rather than dynamic reactive devices such as SVC

New 345 kV Transmission Line Options: Freeport Area Master Plan Project Option 2 – 8: Long-Term Solution New Transmission Line Options New 345 kV Transmission Line Options: Option 2 – STP Option 3 – “Hwy-35” New CNP Switching Station Option 4 – Hillje Option 5 – Bailey Option 6 – “Guy” New CNP Switching Station Option 7 – WAP Option 8 – Oasis

Freeport Area Master Plan Project Option 2 – 8: Long-Term Solution New Transmission Line Options – Summary and Costs Option 8 was eliminated: does not provide sufficient reactive support to the Freeport Area Options 6 and 7 eliminated: due to inability to resolve all of the potential 345 kV circuit overloads Options 2 – 5: show similar steady-state, short circuit, and transient stability performance provide twice as much AC transfer capacity as Options 6 - 8 provide operating flexibility to take maintenance outages in the Freeport Area

Freeport Area Master Plan Project Recommendation CNP studied eight options in all, recommending Option 5 and rejecting the other seven. Option 5: Consists of a new 345 kV double-circuit line from Bailey to Jones Creek and the Bridge the Gap upgrades at a total cost of $246.74 Million Successfully meets the design criteria requirements for steady-state, short circuit, and transient stability analysis Provides for future load growth Increases transfer capability to the Freeport Area Improves operating flexibility to take maintenance outages in the Freeport Area CNP has requested that the project be designated as Critical to Reliability due to: Severity of the reliability concerns Magnitude of load growth in a small area within the near-term horizon Potential harm any delay in this project could have on the Texas economy

Freeport Area Master Plan Project QUESTIONS?