Politics of the Middle East Gulf War II

20 March 2003 – 1 May 2003 Casualties (139 US, UK 33) Peshmerga 24 Iraqi combat fatalities: 30,000 Civilians 3,200 – 4,300 Long term instability Increased sectarian tensions Changed the regional balance of power Resurgence of jihadists in the region

Weapons Inspection Saga 1991 (UN 697) requires Iraq to eliminate WMDs, Inspections begin Further resolution 669,707,715,949,1149,1289,1441 Iraq is often not cooperative banning inspectors from certain sites Weapons inspections repeatedly suspended then resume Some weapons and weapons material found February 2002, Colin Powell speech to UNSC with evidence he argues that Iraq has misled inspectors Zeyzoun Dam disaster, Syria

Axis of Evil G. W. Bush 2002 State of the Union Address North Korea "A regime arming with missiles and weapons of mass destruction, while starving its citizens.“ Iran "aggressively pursues these weapons and exports terror, while an unelected few repress the Iranian people's hope for freedom.“ Iraq "continues to flaunt its hostility toward America and to support terror.

Justifications for War Weapons of mass destruction Connections with al Qaeda Post 9/11 political environment Marketing the War

Anti War 64% of Americans approved of military action 63% wanted to find a diplomatic solution 62% believed the threat of terrorism directed against the U.S. would increase due to war 3000 protests world wide, 36 million people 3 million in Rome, largest ever anti war protest Opposed by US allies Germany, France, NZ

United Nations Security Council A war mandate would require a super majority 9 of 15 with no veto from permanent members US - still authorized from Resolution 678 to us “all means necessary” UK - primary US supporter France - would veto military intervention Russia - would support a US-led war if things did not change China - continued weapons inspections.

Non-Permanent Members Germany - would do all they could to avert war Continued inspections: Cameroon, Chile, Guinea, Angola, Pakistan Supported the use of military force even without UN backing: Bulgaria, Spain, Mexico Syria: Sanctions should be lifted

Coalition of the Willing 48 Countries Troops: US, UK, Poland, Australia Italy, Spain, Denmark strategic and air support Kurdish Peshmerga Turkey refused coalition access to its air space

Invasion Coalition Iraq US (148,000) UK (45,000) 500,000 Troops Australia (2,000) Poland (194) Peshmerga (70,000) M1A1 Abrams Tanks F-117 Stealth bombers AWACS Guidance Systems 500,000 Troops 650,000 reserves Soviet T-72 Tanks Aircraft disassembled and buried

March 20 air and ground operations commence April 10 Fall of Baghdad May 1 Bush declares combat operations over July 22: Uday and Qusay Hussein killed September 3: First post-Saddam government poll shows majority of Iraqis expect better life in 5 years. 2/3 of Baghdad residents state the dictator's removal was worth the hardships October/ November large scale insurgency

Capture of Saddam Hussein 13 December 2003 Near Tikrit 'I am Saddam Hussein. I am the president of Iraq and I am willing to negotiate,‘ 'President Bush sends his regards‘ More than 8 months on the run

Trial Convicted of the Dujail Masacre 1982 Anfal Campaign, Iran–Iraq War, invasion of Kuwait; war crimes, crimes against humanity, and genocide Judge “State your name.” Saddam "You are an Iraqi, you know who I am.“ Trial criticised by rights groups as a ‘Kangaroo Court”

Execution Executioners ‘Are you afraid’ Saddam "No, I am a militant and I have no fear for myself. I have spent my life in jihad and fighting aggression. Anyone who takes this route should not be afraid.“ Crowd "Muqtada! Muqtada! Muqtada!“ Saddam “Do you consider this bravery?“ "Go to hell!“ "The hell that is Iraq?“ Recites the Shahada twice and hanged until dead

Outcomes Shi’ite dominated government Increased sectarian tensions Changed the regional balance of power in favor of Iran Creation of al Qaeda in Iraq which would become Islamic State (ISIS)