Powered By: Futurenotez.com Syrian Civil War: The Strength and Weaknesses of the Opposition and Regime, and who would Win. Powered By: Futurenotez.com

Syria A country smaller than the state of Victoria. Same population as Australia (22.5 million to our 23 million) which borders Turkey, Iraq, Jordan, Israel and Lebanon. Syria has both deserts and fertile areas.

The Civil War Conflict The Syrian Civil war is a conflict between its long-serving government. The Assad family has held power in Syria since 1971. First it was Hafez al-Assad, then Bashar al- Assad. (shirley-in-Syria)

The Roots of the Conflict The Syrian uprising started as a reaction to the Arab Spring, a series of anti-government protests across the Arab world inspired by the fall of the Tunisian regime in early 2011. But at the root of the conflict was anger over unemployment, decades of dictatorship, corruption and state violence under of the Middle East’s most repressive regimes. (Primoz Manfreda,Middle East Issues Expert)

The rebellion grows… By July 2011, the Free Syrian Army (FSA) had formed. the FSA never existed before that. Local areas formed their own militias with the aim of toppling the government without any co-ordination or centralized command or control. (ANTHONY SHARWOOD, Author.News Australia)

Foreign involvement The War has received significant international attention both the parties are receiving support from outside of the world Syrian government receive support from Iran, Russia and Hezbollah (Rogin, 2014)

Syrian opposition rebels are receiving support from major Sunni states in the Middle East, most notably Turkey, Qatar and Saudi Arabia. France, Britain and the united State of America also provided political, military and logistic support (HINNANT, September 7 2012)

China’s Role in Syria "impartial" on the Syrian Civil War, distancing itself from the Syrian government a meeting between Hillary Clinton, the Chinese foreign minister “china will support a period of political transition in Syria," but still reluctant. (DANAN, 2012)

China usually adopts the stance of “non-interference in other countries’ internal affairs. China is not a global policeman like US. nor has economic interest in Syria like Russia. Zhongying, 2013

The Regime: Strengths and Weaknesses Motivation of Alawits to fight, kill and die (minorities fear) Bashar Al -Assad and his regime are focusing on large areas of the capital Damascus and the Mediterranean coast strategic advantage (Aftandilian, 2014)

"He can keep his own fighters busy." financial support from Iran Hezbollah militia, Shiite militias from Iraq and members of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard has joined Assad loyal Army. Assad promised the destruction of Syrian chemical weapons acceptable negotiating person. (POLLACK, 08/ 2013)

But Assad's strength also depends on the weakness of the Syrian opposition No unity among them fighting each other

Weaknesses The regime has relatively small forces withdraw troops prematurely from one battle to defend against attacks in other sectors This has significantly limited their ability to make meaningful gains The regime’s forces are not terribly competent and depend heavily on firepower. (Kaufman, 2012)

Strength and weaknesses of the opposition side. The opposition coalition represents the Sunni Arab majority of the country. One simple way to understand the military dynamics of the Syrian civil war is to think of Jim Morrison and The Doors: “They got the guns, but we got the numbers.” (KENNETH M. POLLACK policymaker)

Opposition Strength and Weaknesses the opposition has the moral energy of decades of repressed anger on the part of the Sunni community, which was deprived of political power and economic prosperity commensurate with its demographic weight the Sunnis were often badly oppressed and famously butchered by Bashar’s father Hafiz to end Syria’s first civil war, in 1976-1982 The Trained Militant Groups i.e (Ahrar al-Sham, al-Qa‘ida) Foreign Support

Opposition Strength and Weaknesses cont… The rebels are badly fragmented, because there is virtually no unified command and control, let alone planning, training, communications, logistics or doctrine. Many hate one another and have begun to fight one another for resources, authority and control over territory. Lack of coordination. Absence of a unified strategy. (KENNETH M. POLLACK policymaker)

Facts and Figures According to Human Rights recently reports: Estimate that Above 200,000 have been killed. According to UN reports: The U.N. estimates that over 6.5 million people are internally displaced.

Who is winning?. (conclusion) Regime has weapons. Trained military. key areas of the country Has control on 60% of the population People have begun to move away from thinking about the revolution. Rebels are in bad shape having no weapons , no train military, having control on very small portion of the land. (Mona Alami, 2014)

Who is winning?. Contd…. if the west provided weapon instead of encouraging words the opposition can easily win this war by themselves. it is premature to say that the Syrian rebellion is over but the Opposition is too weak compare to Assad loyal army.