The Middle East from 9-11 to the Arab ‘Spring’

The Hamburg Cell Khalid Sheikh Mohammed Architect of 9-11 plan 1996 Formed 1998 by University Students in Hamburg Germany Mohamed Atta, Marwan al-Shehhi Ramzi bin al-Shibh Chance meeting with al Qaeda agent Training in Afghanistan, chosen for 9-11 mission Enroll in flight training schools in US The 20th hijacker

September 11, 2001 2996 Deaths 10 Billion infrastructure damage Wars in Afghanistan and Iraq 2001 Letter to America support of Israel, attacks in Somalia, atrocities in Chechnya, authoritarian regimes in the Middle East, oppression in Kashmir The presence of U.S. troops in Saudi Arabia sanctions against Iraq

War on Terror Patriot Act, Homeland Security; Challenges to right to privacy Becomes a Carte blanche policy for targeting ‘terrorists’ Used as a tool of political repression by US allies

Axis of Evil G. W. Bush 2002 State of the Union Address North Korea "A regime arming with missiles and weapons of mass destruction, while starving its citizens.“ Iran "aggressively pursues these weapons and exports terror, while an unelected few repress the Iranian people's hope for freedom.“ Iraq "continues to flaunt its hostility toward America and to support terror.

Weapons Inspection Saga 1991 (UN 697) requires Iraq to eliminate WMDs, Inspections begin Further resolution 669,707,715,949,1149,1289,1441 Iraq is often not cooperative banning inspectors from certain sites Weapons inspections repeatedly suspended then resume Some weapons and weapons material found February 2002, Colin Powell speech to UNSC with evidence he argues that Iraq has misled inspectors Zeyzoun Dam disaster, Syria

Justifications for War Weapons of mass destruction Connections with al Qaeda Post 9/11 political environment Marketing the War 3000 protests world wide, 36 million people 3 million in Rome, largest ever anti war protest Opposed by US allies Germany, France, NZ

Coalition of the Willing UN a paper tiger? 48 Countries Troops: US, UK, Poland, Australia Italy, Spain, Denmark strategic and air support Kurdish Peshmerga Turkey refused coalition access to its air space

Invasion Coalition Iraq US (148,000) UK (45,000) 500,000 Troops Australia (2,000) Poland (194) Peshmerga (70,000) M1A1 Abrams Tanks F-117 Stealth bombers AWACS Guidance Systems 500,000 Troops 650,000 reserves Soviet T-72 Tanks Aircraft disassembled and buried

Baghdad Bob “There are no American’s in Baghdad”

April 10 2003 Fall of Baghdad May 1 Bush declares combat operations over July 22: Uday and Qusay Hussein killed September 3: First post-Saddam government 13 December Capture of Saddam Hussein poll shows majority of Iraqis expect better life in 5 years. 2/3 of Baghdad residents state the dictator's removal was worth the hardships October/ November large scale insurgency

Trial Convicted of the Dujail Masacre 1982 Anfal Campaign, Iran–Iraq War, invasion of Kuwait; war crimes, crimes against humanity, and genocide Judge “State your name.” Saddam "You are an Iraqi, you know who I am.“ Trial criticised by rights groups as a ‘Kangaroo Court” Executed 30 December 2006

Outcomes Disbanding of internal security forces and the Ba’the party leave country vulnerable Shi’ite dominated government of Nouri al Maliki fails to diminish sectarian tensions Rise of al Qaeda in Iraq Increase in Iranian influence US withdrawal 2011

Capture of Osama bin Laden 2 May 2011 Abbotabad Pakistan 1.3 Kilometers from Pakistan Military Academy Abu Ahmed al-Kuwaiti US forces violate Pakistani Soverighty Effects on the al Qaeda movement? Demonstrates the limited influence of the central leadership Successor al Zawahiri fails to direct the movement Paves the way for ISIS popularity

Arab Spring

Began January 2011 in Tunisia Mohamed Bouazizi Corruption rankings (Transparency International) Tunisia 73: Morocco 80; Algeria and Egypt 112 (tied); Yemen 164; Libya 168; Age distribution Egypt 33% younger than 14 years, Syria 35 % compare US 20%; Germany 13%) Lack of democratic input (Long standing regimes)

Outcomes Tunisia: President Ben Ali overthrown, new constitution, government elected Egypt: Mubarak ousted, Morsey elected and overthrown. al Sisi elected Libya: Gaddafi killed, Two rival governments claim power, continuing conflict Yemen: Abdullah Saleh ousted, continued civil violence Protest put down in Gulf States Syria: Protracted Civil War. al-Assad remains Potential destabilisation of Lebanon

Removal of power structures unleashes tensions: Sunni/ Shi’ite, Islamist/ Secularist, Political Class conflict Patterns of authoritarianism Proxy effects of the MECW Great power stalemate Absence of national state identity

Is the news all bad? Some movement towards pluralism Egyptian constitution allows greater freedoms for some religious minorities Tunisia writes new constitution Algeria ends state of emergency Oman, greater autonomy for legislature Jordan, Morocco, constitutional reforms In 2015 women will gain the right to vote and seek public office in Saudi Arabia