Research Question Methodology Background Conclusions References COGNITIVE PREDICTORS OF SEXUAL ABSTINENCE: AN SEM APPROACH Nicole Anderson, M.S., Ross Larsen, Ph.D., and Richard Sudweeks, Ph.D. Educational Inquiry, Measurement, & Evaluation Ph.D. Program Research Question Methodology Can proven predictors of abstinent behavior be improved upon when put into a Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) approach? Participants. Participants were 3,331 teens enrolled in the Heritage Keepers™ abstinence program in Lexington and Eastern Kentucky who were surveyed during the 2009-2010 school year. Measures. Measures were six constructs (abstinence values, abstinence intentions, abstinence efficacy, future impact of sex, justifications for sex, and sexual independence from peers) measured previously by 27 5-point Likert-type scales constructed by the Institute for Research and Evaluation (see Table 1). Data Analysis. An EFA and a CFA were run, followed by an SEM. Abstinence values and justifications for sex were assessed for their comparability as one scale. As Likert scales were used, the SEM was run using categorical variables. Missing data was accounted for by the Full Information Maximum Likelihood method; clustering was accounted for at the school level. Background Teenage sexual activity is linked to unintended pregnancy (Finer & Zolner, 2006), STDs (CDC, 2013), and poverty (Maynard, 1997). Poverty is especially salient to education as it is associated with poor educational outcomes (Engel & Black, 2008). Sexual abstinence programs seek to reduce these negative effects on society by encouraging abstinence until marriage. A set of cognitive predictors of sexual activity has been compiled and refined by Weed at the Institute for Research and Evaluation for over 20 years (see Weed et al., 2008). Previously these scales were analyzed only with path modeling using SPSS. Now analyzed w/SEM in MPlus 7.3. Accounts for measurement error Allows correlated error (confirmatory factor analysis) Handles missing data better Figure 1. MPlus SEM model (RMSEA=.039, CFI=.990, TLI=.988, WRMR=2.183) Results Conclusions References Table 1. Cognitive predictor scales with MPlus modifications Combined abstinence values and justifications for sex into one scale New sexual independence from peers scale is stronger with new former justifications for sex item added and items with high cross-loadings with abstinence values scale deleted Identifies at-risk students Next steps will be to test the revised constructs in different populations; find new items that capture social dimensions of sexual peer pressure more fully Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Sexual risk behavior: HIV, STD, & teen pregnancy prevention (on- line). Available at: www.cdc.gov/HealthyYouth/sexualbehaviors/. Accessed August 6, 2013. Engle, P.L. & Black, M.M. (2008). The effect of poverty on child development and educational outcomes. Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, 1136, 243-256. Finer L.B., Zolna M.R. (2011). Unintended pregnancy in the United States: incidence and disparities, 2006. Contraception, 84(5),478-485. Maynard R.A .(Ed.). (1997). Kids Having Kids: Economic Costs and Social Consequences of Teen Pregnancy. Wash. DC: Urban Institute. Weed S.E., Ericksen I.E., Lewis A., et al. (2008). An abstinence program’s impact on cognitive mediators and sexual initiation. American Journal of Health Behavior, 32(1),60-73. Abstinence Values Measures adolescent values about abstinence until marriage. V1 - absimportant It is important to me to wait until marriage before having sex. V2 - absvalues I think it is important It is against my values for me to have sex while I am unmarried. V3 - abswait I have a strong commitment to wait until marriage before having sex. V4 - abswrong I think it would be wrong for me to have sex while I am unmarried. Abstinence Intentions Assesses whether adolescents intend to remain abstinent from sexual activity. I1 - behmarry How likely do you think it is that you will have sex between now and the day you get married? I2 - behyear If someone wanted you to have sex with him her during the next year what would you do? Abstinence Efficacy Measures adolescent confidence in ability to engage in refusal skills. E1 - effexplain How sure are you that you could explain your reasons for not wanting to have sex? E2 - effsayno How sure are you that you could firmly say no to having sex? E3 - effstayaway How sure are you that you could stay away from situations that might lead to sex? E4 - effstick How sure are you that you could stick with your decision not to have sex? E5 - effstopsee How sure are you that you could stop seeing your boyfriend/girlfriend if they were pressuring you? E6 - efftalk How sure are you that you could talk to your boyfriend/girlfriend about your decision? Future Impact of Sex Measures adolescent perceptions that consequences of sex could interfere with future goals. F1 - futeducation Having sex as a teenager would make it harder for me to get a good education in the future. F2 - futgoals Having sex as a teenager would interfere with the goals I have set for myself. F3 - futjob Having sex as a teenager would make it harder for me to get a good job or be successful in career. F4 - futmarriage Having sex as a teenager would make it harder for me to have a good marriage in the future. Justifications for Sex Assesses the extent to which adolescents provide justifications for engaging in sexual activity. J1 - jusbirthcontrol I think it is ok for unmarried teenagers to have sex as long as they use some form of birth control. J2 - juscare Having sex is the best way to show your partner that you really care about him/her. J3 - juscondoms I think it is ok for unmarried teenagers to have sex as long as they use condoms. J4 - jushappens If I am in love and sex just happens I don’t see that as a problem. J5 - jusinlove It is all right for teenagers to have sex before marriage if they are in love. J6 - jusnormal Having sex should be treated as a normal and expected part of teen dating relationships. Sexual Independence Measures susceptibility of adolescents to giving into peer pressure to engage in sexual activity. S1 - sincool I might consider engaging in sexual activity so that my friends will think I am cool. S2 - sinvolve I will not be involved in sexual activity in order to be accepted by others. S3 - sinlose It is important to me to abstain from sexual activity even if I lose some friends. S4 - sinrefuse I refuse to be used by another person for his her sexual pleasure. S5 - sinsayno If my friends encourage me to engage in sexual activity I just refuse to do it.