Most dollars yet to be deployed

Slides:



Advertisements
Similar presentations
Chapter 2 What drives Real Estate Markets?
Advertisements

2014 REAL ESTATE ECONOMIC FORECAST January 30, 2014 Steve LaMotte Jr., Senior Vice President Dave Lockard, Senior Vice President Dane Wilson, Senior Associate.
Market Analysis, Highest and Best Use and Vacant Land
1 05/03/14 Presented to: CCCMAC Presented to: CCCMAC Research Valuation and Advisory Services Presented by: Cameron McAlpine, BA, AACI.
Triad Office Market Total Office Market: 27, 467,542 Total Sq. Ft. Vacant: 5,264,359 Vacancy Rate 19.2% Forsyth: 18.8%/Guilford 21% Average Rental Rate:
Executive Summary 1 Market Overview 2 Demand Analysis 3 Supply Analysis 4 Site Analysis 5 Conclusion 6 MARKET ANALYSIS.
CB Richard Ellis | Page Real Estate Forecast - Capitalization Rate Trends Michael J. Moynagh, MAI, Managing Director CBRE Valuation and Advisory.
Urban Land Use (chapter 21)
Size 2 Acres, sf 420 ft x 220 ft Existing Structure 4 floors underground parking: for 1,100 cars Column grid ~ 35’ Ramps, elevators, and ventilation.
June 1, 2010 Commercial Real Estate Fundamentals.
North Corridor Commuter Rail The Case For Tax Increment Financing Mecklenburg County May 2007.
GLOBAL RESEARCH AND CONSULTING THE ECONOMY AND REAL ESTATE GARY BARAGONA DIRECTOR, RESEARCH & ANALYSIS JANUARY 2014.
Israel Cell: Ron Manoah
Update of Development Trends in Westminster 27 June 2005 CITY DEVELOPMENT OVERVIEW AND SCRUTINY COMMITTEE.
WAYNESBORO BROWNFIELDS ASSESSMENT & REDEVELOPMENT PLANNING PROJECT May 20 th, 2015 Reuse Planning: Environmental (Prime):
Part II: Case Studies 1.Arlington, VA: Transit-oriented Development Boosts Economy County-wide. 2.Portland, OR: Streetcar Increases Investment and Redevelopment.
Investment Analysis 1 William Morgan Drive Toronto, ON Ryan Malenfant Greg Gowan.
Future Direction of the Property Market in Hong Kong & Macau Nicholas Brooke, FRICS FHKIS Chairman, Professional Property Services 5 June 2007.
An overview of prepared for A D V I S O R Y G R O U P World Services Group, Inc. May, 2004 U.S. Economy & Commercial Real Estate Investment Market.
Page 1 CBRE CHICAGO MULTIFAMILY INSTITUTIONAL 2015 OUTLOOK CBRE | Capital Markets Institutional Properties | Multifamily John Jaeger, Dan Cohen, MJ Zaring.
Property Particulars BUCHAREST REAL ESTATE MARKET.
The Leader In Commercial Real Estate. Industrial Office Retail Investment Corporate Services Property Management Presented By: Steffi Hahn 2012 Office.
© 2008 Coldwell Banker Real Estate Corporation. All Rights Reserved. NRT Mid-Atlantic 2008 Mid-Year Commercial Report The Commercial Leading Indicator.
2013 Real Estate Forecasts - Retail R1. Retail Market Areas R2.
December/Full-Year 2013 MLS Sales Statistics The December/full-year 2013 MLS statistics will be released on Tuesday morning, and here are some quick takeaways:
|Date Market failure Market failure in the Amsterdam office investment market Henk J. Brouwer 1.
5 5 WASHINGTON DC METRO MARKET OVERVIEW grubb-ellis.com.
Random Reflections on the Hong Kong Property Market Nicholas Brooke Chairman 22 nd March 2005 Professional Property Services Limited.
Economic and Commercial Real Estate Outlook By Lawrence Yun, Ph.D. Chief Economist National Association of REALTORS ® May 14, 2015 Washington, D.C.
Economic Overview of Berkeley’s Rental Housing Affordability Crisis and Proposed Increase in Business License Tax on Residential Rentals Stephen Barton,
Prince William County – Specialized Logistics & Supply Chain Briefing Presented By: Prince William County Department of Economic Development
Prince William County – Specialized Logistics & Supply Chain Briefing Presented By: Prince William County Department of Economic Development
3225 ADELINE STREET, BERKELEY MIXED-USE BUILDING TEAM: JASON MOCHIZUKI, SAFEI GU, FEI ZHAO.
© Farebrother All rights reserved. Farebrother CORFAC International affiliate for the United Kingdom.
Year-End Review | 2014 | Russia | Colliers International Overall real estate investment volume, 2007– Investment Summary 2013 In terms of total deal.
Form & Function of Metropolitan America WALKABLE URBAN DRIVABLE SUB-URBAN WALKUPS: (Walkable Urban Places) DRVABLE EDGE CITIES WALKABLE NEIGHBORHOODS.
Presentation Downtown Real Estate Market Analysis Presented to: The City of Concord, North Carolina Presented by: Economics Research Associates April 8,
USA REAL ESTATE Dana Conway, Realtor Adv. Communications Skills.
IS WHAT WE DO Compare 5 different condo concentrated areas in Toronto Geoffrey Au (Broker) Phone:
Facts about Business in Stockholm Content  Economy  Business Sector  Workforce and Population  Infrastructure In this publication the Stockholm.
Urban Land Uses 6 Land Classifications. 1.0 Residential Land Uses includes all the places where people live often takes up to 40% or more of the developed.
Invest I care What relevance does Real Estate And construction hold in our economy?Real Estate Investicare. net Why has infrastructure getting the prime.
ARCH – 4601 Feasibility Study Presentation
Triad Apartment Market
Professor and Michael J. Horne Chair in Real Estate Studies
National Technical University of Athens
City of Stoughton Comprehensive Plan Update
Montgomery County Planning Commission
Curt Pitzen, NAI MLG Commercial CARW Chairman
INLAND EMPIRE INDUSTRIAL STATS – Q
Regional Roads Committee
NORTHERN VIRGINIA MARKETFLASH
Real Estate Principles, 11th Edition
The West Midlands Real Estate Investment Market
Ways to Monetize From a Commercial Real Estate Property
Student Investment Management – Stock Presentation: Real Estate
Urban Land Use (chapter 21)
Laurel Canyon Apartments
Economic & Real Estate Outlook
The Record-Setting Real Estate Cycle Chicago Market Overview
Real Estate Principles, 11th Edition
Capital Markets Graphs
Urban Land Use (chapter 21)
BLUE ROSE CITY DEVELOPMENT
Qualities of Real Estate as an investment Week 2
The Great Recession was about as bad as anyone who is currently in business can remember.
Chapter 15 Ch 15: Market Analysis.
UK Commercial Property Update
The ways of interaction between the state and private partners influence economic development LV Session of the Russian-French Seminar on Monetary and.
Genesys Health System Campus & Community Revitalization
Presentation transcript:

Most dollars yet to be deployed National outlook ECONOMIC OUTLOOK CANADIAN GDP +2.1% Forecast for 2017 and 2018 “The Canadian commercial real estate market is on a sustainable path, but now more than ever, there is the potential for speed bumps along the way.” INFRASTRUCTURE FUNDS $125 B Most dollars yet to be deployed

National outlook Key trends 1. CANADA AT THE FOREFRONT Canada is coming off a record-setting $34.7 billion in commercial property sales in 2016. Cap rates under 4.00% for trophy office product put our major cities on par with New York, Paris, London and Shanghai. Investment activity in 2017 is expected to total $31.9 billion, the third highest total in history. 2. FOREIGN INVESTMENT APPETITE Foreign capital accounted for 27.0% of all commercial real estate sales in 2016. Record low cap rates for most commercial property types and rising prices are causing some domestic investors to take pause; however, foreign capital has the potential to propel values even higher in 2017. 3. TORONTO ENVY Toronto enters 2017 on the A List. The downtown office vacancy rate is the lowest of any major market in North America, the industrial availability rate is the second lowest, and the city is a top destination for retailers. Strong demand is likely to initiate a wave of development. 4. PLANNING ANOTHER DEVELOPMENT CYCLE With the previous development cycle trailing off, rising prices and the pursuit of yield will encourage investors to consider developing new product. Mixed-use will be the gold standard as owners look to maximize properties and create environments that appeal to tenants. 5. LAND CONTINUES TO OUTPERFORM Rising land prices will be a major story in 2017 as residential housing markets remain robust and commercial development gears up. A lack of developable land will increase competition for prime urban redevelopment sites along transit nodes. Land investment volume will either meet or exceed 2016’s record high.

NATIONAL AVERAGE CAP RATE National outlook investment INVESTMENT VOLUMES (MILLIONS $) 2015 2016 2017 F YoY Office $5,022 $7,752 $7,335 q Industrial $4,634 $5,794 $5,888 p Retail $4,593 $6,780 $5,746 Multifamily $5,532 $5,682 $4,842 ICI Land $4,280 $5,149 $5,195 Hotel* $2,060 $3,548 $2,930 Total $26,121 $34,705 $31,936 *Market and surrounding region and portion of portfolio deal Source: CBRE Limited, 2017. NATIONAL AVERAGE CAP RATE 5.85% Record low cap rate reflects strong fundamentals and demand for commercial property

Decrease new supply to encourage new development National outlook office CENTRAL (ALL CLASSES) 2015 2016 2017 F YoY Vacancy Rate 10.1% 11.2% 12.2% p Class A Net Asking Rent (per sq. ft.) $24.29 $21.82 $21.54 q Net Absorption (million sq. ft. ) (1.29) 0.49 1.03 New Supply (million sq. ft.) 3.49 4.70 3.89 Under Construction (million sq. ft.) 9.90 6.65 5.46 SUBURBAN (ALL CLASSES) 14.8% 15.8% 16.2% $17.96 $18.24 $18.33 (0.81) 1.07 1.65 2.82 4.34 2.89 6.77 2.73 3.24 OVERALL (ALL CLASSES) 13.3% 14.0% $20.79 $19.97 $19.98 (2.10) 1.56 2.68 6.31 9.05 6.78 16.67 9.37 8.70 Source: CBRE Limited, 2017. CONSTRUCTION DECLINE -22.0% Decrease new supply to encourage new development

New supply at a three-year low National outlook INDUSTRIAL 2015 2016 2017 F YoY Availability Rate 5.7% 5.3% 5.0% q Net Asking Rent (per sq. ft.) $6.48 $6.60 $6.65 p $110.39 $120.80 $122.86 Net Absorption (million sq. ft.) 17.17 17.89 13.54 New Supply (million sq. ft.) 23.20 13.14 9.65 Under Construction (million sq. ft.) 13.73 11.35 9.51 Source: CBRE Limited, 2017. UNDER CONSTRUCTION 11.3 New supply at a three-year low million sq. ft.

3.75X higher than in-store returns National outlook RETAIL ONLINE SALE RETURNS 30.0% 3.75X higher than in-store returns 2015 2016 2017 F YoY Retail Sales (YoY) 1.7% 3.8% 2.7% q Source: CBRE Limited, 2017.

10.2% <$25 million National outlook MULTIFAMILY HOTEL INVESTMENT FOCUS <$25 million Small and medium-sized deals to dominate HOTEL HOTEL INVESTMENT 10.2% Percentage of total commercial transactions

Lifestyle amenities could drop the average age of new residents National outlook SENIOR HOUSING Capital recycling will drive Class B divestments to fund Class A developments 83 Lifestyle amenities could drop the average age of new residents average age

regional outlook Toronto - office PROJECTS TO WORK The Well The Well is a large-scale proposed development that embodies the Live Work Play lifestyle. This development comprises approximately 3.0 million sq. ft. of mixed- use space at Front Street and Spadina Avenue, will encompass public, residential, office and retail space. Click here for more information East Harbour First Gulf’s project is the largest proposed commercial development in Canada. Once completed, this 12.0 million sq. ft. mixed-use development that will include office, retail and institutional space. More importantly, however, this massive development will be a catalyst for much needed transit infrastructure in downtown Toronto’s east side. Rail Deck Park The Rail Deck Park is a proposed project that would see 21.0 acres of publicly accessible parkland installed above the rail corridor south of King West. This project would further bolster interest in the Downtown West submarket.

regional outlook Toronto - industrial PROJECTS TO WORK Highway 427 Expansion Road widening, northern expansion and the addition of High Occupancy Toll Lanes will get underway as part of a three-year project to enhance Highway 427 starting in 2017. 6 Cleve Court, Halton Hills This 564,824 sq.ft. state-of-the-art logistics facility is situated in Halton Hills between CP Rail Terminals, CN Rail Terminals and the Milton Go Station. Construction is expected to be completed in fall 2017. Click here for more information 11400 Steeles Avenue, Halton Hills Phase one of this 639,839 sq. ft. development will offer 36’ ceilings and is conveniently positioned near Pearson Airport and the CN Rail terminal. It will be completed in January 2017, followed by phase two in October 2017.

Toronto MARKET STATISTICS OFFICE 2015 2016 2017 F YoY CENTRAL Vacancy Rate 5.1% 4.4%  Class A Net Asking Rent (per sq. ft.) $28.94 $27.97 $28.25 Net Absorption (million sq. ft. ) 0.78 2.84 0.75  Class A Cap Rate (%) 4.75-5.25 4.25-4.75  New Supply (million sq. ft.) 0.29 2.39 1.35 Under Construction (million sq. ft.) 3.74 1.60 2.15 SUBURBAN 14.7% 14.5% $16.97 $17.73 $17.90 (0.12) 0.58 0.35 Class A & B Cap Rate (%) 5.75-7.50 5.75-7.25 0.94 1.27 1.68 0.39 1.09 OVERALL 9.6% 9.2% 9.5% $20.25 $20.14 $20.87 0.67 3.43 1.10 1.23 3.65 1.64 5.42 1.99 3.24 RETAIL Retail Sales (YoY) 3.5% Neighbourhood Cap Rate (%) 5.25-6.25 5.00-6.25 INDUSTRIAL 2015 2016 2017 F YoY Availability Rate 4.0% 3.3% 3.1%  Net Asking Rent (per sq. ft.) $5.41 $5.98 $6.15  Sale Price (per sq. ft.) $105.72 $140.82 $144.50 Net Absorption (million sq. ft.) 10.14 9.33 6.00 Class A & B Cap Rate (%) 5.00-7.50 4.50-6.50  New Supply (million sq. ft.) 7.32 4.71 4.00 Under Construction (million sq. ft.) 5.41 5.12 4.50 MULTIFAMILY Overall Vacancy Rate (%) 1.6% 1.3% 1.7% Apartment Cap Rate (%) 4.25-5.00 4.00-5.00 INVESTMENT INVESTMENT VOLUME (MILLIONS) Office $3,298 $3,318 $3,200 Industrial $2,004 $2,476 $2,800 Retail $1,893 $2,288 $1,700 Multifamily $1,631 $1,160 $1,200 ICI Land $1,113 $1,906 $2,000 Hotel* $816 $1,064 Total $10,755 $12,212 $12,600 Source: Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp., CBRE Limited, 2017. *Market and surrounding region Source: CBRE Limited, 2017.