Disasters, conflict, and peace Disaster diplomacy: Disasters, conflict, and peace http://www.disasterdiplomacy.org Ilan Kelman University College London http://www.ilankelman.org

Overview How and why disaster-related activities do and do not induce cooperation amongst enemies. Disaster-related activities can catalyze but not create diplomacy – over the short-term (weeks and months).

Definitions Disaster: An event beyond a community’s ability to cope. Diplomacy: Peaceful business amongst sovereign governments and other government-related entities.

Case studies Geographic region. e.g. North Korea, Greece-Turkey. Specific disaster event or type. e.g. earthquake hazard, haze. Global issue. e.g. asteroid, climate change.

Case studies Spin-offs Inter-state and intra-state. e.g. Philippines, Aceh / Sri Lanka. Spin-offs Environmental diplomacy. Disaster para-diplomacy.

Research questions Disaster-related activities  diplomacy. New diplomacy. Legitimate diplomacy. Lasting diplomacy. Is the long-term addressed?

Reasons why it fails Survival of oneself. Inertial prejudice and enmity. Lack of political forethought. Ability for disaster-related activities. Humanitarian imperative.

Disaster-related activities are not the first political priority. Politics can be uncaring.

Disaster diplomacy and international agreements Example: Antarctic Treaty System and climate change impacts on it. Diplomatic outcomes beyond the agreement? Climate change impacts on environmental agreements?

Non-sovereign island disaster diplomacy Legal: neither allowed nor banned. Actual: a few occurrences. Why? Limited interest in sovereignty & disaster risk.

Understanding reasons: Quantitative analyses Data challenges. Correlation and causation.

Understanding reasons: Explanatory & predictive models Taxonomy: -Neighbourliness. -Aid relationship. -Diplomacy track. -Purpose for supporting/avoiding.

Beyond research to pragmatism Politics is not just politicians Diplomacy is not just diplomats. Time: do start and end points exist? Space: how much do specific boundaries matter?

Disaster diplomacy as a process, Not a one-off phenomenon When wanted, it happens. Can be a tool or a weapon. Theory or desires may not be reality. Accept the evidence of failure, but do not lose hope.