Climate change and Health Presentation for: GEOHub Workshop Kampala, April 22, 2015 Jonathan Patz, Professor & Director (2015 Fulbright Scholar, US State Dept - Ethiopia)

Temperature Change: 2055 By 2055: Central Africa warms by: Temperature Change RCP 4.5 in 2046-2065: June – August Temperature Change RCP 4.5 in 2046-2065: December - February By 2055: Central Africa warms by: 1.5° - 3° C in June – August 1.5° - 2° C in December – February By 2055: North Africa, the Sahara, and South Africa warm by: 2° - 3° C in June – August 1.5° - 3° C in December – February Results above are for the RCP4.5 pathway. Ranges represent ranges from the climate models, not geographic variations. Plots are a compilation of Figs. AI.40 – AI.51. The relevant part of caption for AI.40 reads: Maps of temperature changes in 2046–2065 with respect to 1986–2005 in the RCP4.5 scenario. For each point, the 50th percentile of the distribution of the CMIP5 ensemble are shown, this includes both natural variability and inter-model spread. Hatching denotes areas where the 20-yr mean differences of the percentiles are less than the standard deviation of model-estimated present-day natural variability of 20-yr mean differences. Sections 9.4.1.1, 9.6.1.1, 10.3.1.1.4, Box 11.2, 14.8.6, 14.8.7 contain relevant information regarding the evalu- ation of models in this region, the model spread in the context of other methods of projecting changes and the 15 role of modes of variability and other climate phenomena. June - August December - February

Precipitation Change: 2055 Precipitation Change RCP 4.5 in 2046-2065: April – September Precipitation Change RCP 4.5 in 2046-2065: October - March By 2055: Wet areas get wetter, dry areas get drier. But, there is weak consensus among models as to whether any location in Africa will be wetter or drier. Results above are for the RCP4.5 pathway. Precipitation changes are not as robust as temperature changes – note that hatching indicates that the change is not as large as one standard deviation of present-day natural variability. The general consensus (90% of models agree) is that far northern Africa (along the Mediterranean) and southern Africa (south of a line from Tanzania to northern Angola) will get drier by 2081-2100 (Fig. 12.10). The general consensus (90% of models agree) is that precipitation will increase in east Africa and in areas in the northern Sahel from about Niger eastward (Fig. 12.10). However, there is not consensus about changes in precipitation over the rest of Africa. Results above are for the RCP4.5 pathway. Ranges represent ranges from the climate models, not geographic variations. Plots are a compilation of Figs. AI.40 – AI.51. The relevant part of caption for AI.41 reads: Maps of temperature changes in 2046–2065 with respect to 1986–2005 in the RCP4.5 scenario. For each point, the 50th percentile of the distribution of the CMIP5 ensemble are shown, this includes both natural variability and inter-model spread. Hatching denotes areas where the 20-yr mean differences of the percentiles are less than the standard deviation of model-estimated present-day natural variability of 20-yr mean differences. Sections 9.4.1.1, 9.6.1.1, 10.3.1.1.4, Box 11.2, 14.8.6, 14.8.7 contain relevant information regarding the evalu- ation of models in this region, the model spread in the context of other methods of projecting changes and the 15 role of modes of variability and other climate phenomena. April - September October - March

Temperature trends in Ethiopia Year to Year Variability of Annual minimum Temperature over Ethiopia expressed in temperature difference compared to 1971-2000 normal. Courtesy: Kinfe Hailemariam, Natl. Met. Agency

Climate sensitive health impacts World Health Organization 3 January 2018 Climate sensitive health impacts Each year: - Undernutrition kills 3.1 million Malaria kills over 600,000 Diarrhea kills almost 600,000 children Extreme weather events kill tens of thousands These, and others, are highly sensitive to a changing climate Why is this important for health. Many countries at the WHA this year made statements on the way that climate change is already health in their country. A new study for WHO, considering only a subset of health impacts from climate change, and assuming continued strong economic growth, shows that it is conservatively expected to be responsible for an additional 250,000 deaths per year from 2030-2050.

HEALTH EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE Heat Stress Cardiorespiratory failure Respiratory diseases, e.g., COPD & Asthma Malaria Dengue Encephalitis Hantavirus Rift Valley Fever Cholera Cyclospora Cryptosporidiosis Campylobacter Leptospirosis Malnutrition Diarrhea Toxic Red Tides Forced Migration Overcrowding Infectious diseases Human Conflicts Urban Heat Island Effect Air Pollution Vector-borne Diseases Water-borne Diseases Water resources & food supply Environmental Refugees CLIMATE CHANGE Temperature Rise 1 Sea level Rise 2 Hydrologic Extremes 1 1-4°C by yr. 2100 2 50 cm “ “ IPCC estimates Patz, 1998

Grabow MET 606 11/27/12 Climate Variability and Change temperature

Calculus of extremes Climate change can involve change in the average, or the spread around the average (standard deviation), or both. A shift in the distribution of temperatures has a much larger relative effect at the extremes than near the mean. A shift of 1 standard deviation makes a 1 in 40 yr event into a 1 in 6 yr event Standard deviation 1 in 40 yr high range

Projected # of days over 32°C Average NYC summer (current) = 13 days Average summer (2046-65) = 39 days Bottom line (but you might reach out to Dan) is that we used a downscaling technique that can capture the temperature extremes  —by  retaining mean and standard deviation in downscaling.   New technique called “vector-based”  generalized linear modeling.  Often downscaling climate models provide mean temperatures, but not retain climate extremes. Finally, our findings are consistent with other analyses (including the National Assessment).  Unique:  downscaled from the climate models, and “de-biased”  de-biased  Here we do capture the extremes  — predict mean and STD   retain mean and STD in downscaling.   NEW technique to retain the extremes — vector-based  generalized linear model     ..for user consistent  and designed to retain … East of the Rockies 32°C Patz et al. 2014

30-year average monthly mean afternoon in-shade WBGT (based on IPCC RCPs)

Time trend of in-shade afternoon WBGT for July from 1992 to 2085 at Dire Dawa, Ethiopia, based on five international climate models for RCP6.0

Baseline 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 Ebi et al. 2005

Baseline 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 Ebi et al. 2005

Grabow MET 606 11/27/12 Climate Variability and Change precipitation

Water Stress-Africa Courtesy: Paul Block, UW-Madison http://www.un.org/waterforlifedecade/scarcity.shtml If we look closer at the water stress in africa, we would get a better idea of the water conflicts there. The figure on the left lists a bunch of african countries, each countries has two bars, the upper bar in light blue color represents…, the lower…., and the horizontal line shows the availability of water per capita, and is divied into four zones: zone with the worst scenario is the water scarcity, then water stress and water vulnerability. In general there will be a big drop in water availability per capita cross most african countries. If we look at the ethiopia and egypt only, egypt is already under water stress condition in 1990 and both the two counties are expected to have water scarcity or close to water scarcity in 2025. let’s look at a more recent research on the global water scarcity in 2012, we can see that egypt and ethiopia are already under water scarcity right now. However, the situations are different in the two countries. where countries lack the necessary infrastructure to take water from rivers Courtesy: Paul Block, UW-Madison

Agricultural Impacts: Africa & S. Asia Source: Knox et al. 2012 For Africa, significant reductions for wheat (-17%), maize (-5%), sorghum (-15%) and millet (- 10%).” Central Africa less affected than north & south NOTE: estimates ignore climate “shocks” (droughts/floods) and plant pests

Globally Averaged In Future, when it rains…it will pour. U.S. CCSP, 2008

Could Combating Climate Change be cost-free? …or even a net gain?

…Opportunity especially for Africa Opportunity at the intersection of: Health Energy Food security Forest conservation …Opportunity especially for Africa

From this year’s Lima COP “…examination of opportunities with high mitigation potential, including those with adaptation, health, and sustainable development co-benefits”

We are already thinking about leveraged GEOHub projects

Universities-wide initiative ?? to switch from wood stoves to those powered by hydro, wind, solar, or biogas – women’s health, forest protection and climate resilience

African Cities Matter for Climate Change Urban areas are focal points for addressing global climate change and its related health impacts. Successful adaptation to climate change globally depends centrally on what is done in urban centres. Community-driven upgrading of informal settlements reduces deep-rooted vulnerability to extreme weather events and increases awareness of climate change impacts. Although much of the investment needed for adaptation will have to come from individuals, households and firms, its effectiveness depends on what local governments do, encourage, support and prevent as well as their  contribution to providing needed infrastructure and services. Many of the measures needed for climate change adaptation in urban areas fall within the responsibilities of local governments Many of the challenges and opportunities for urban adaptation are derived from the central features of city life – the concentration of people, buildings, economic activities and social and cultural institutions (Dodman and Romero-Lankao 2011)

Urbanization and Emissions The path toward more urbanization has typically meant increased emissions, however cities vary widely in their per capita emissions estimates. The way cities are designed have huge implications for behavior, emissions, and health. There is an incredible opportunity to plan, engineer, and manage new cities in Africa as low carbon economies. New cities can adopt technologies & urban forms encouraging healthy behaviors that benefit residents and mitigate climate change. Source: UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs – Population Division World Resources Institute – Climate Analysis Indicators Tool

Diesel smoke and health Burning fossil fuels causes local health risks

Co-benefit of 0. 7 to 4. 7 million deaths/yr Co-benefit of 0.7 to 4.7 million deaths/yr. Reductions in PM pollution in 2030 Shindell….J Schwartz… et al. Science, 2012 control measures and identified 14 that both mitigate warming and improve air quality, such as reducing emissions from coal mining, oil and gas production, and municipal landfills.

Cost of cleaner energy: < $30/ tCO2 Benefits of cleaner energy: WHICH NUMBER IS BIGGER??? (* Range: $50 to $380) For E. Asia, co-benefits are 10 to 70 times greater West et al. 2013

Can cities in East Africa become the model for the rest of the continent?

“Bikeable Bahir Dar?”

Ethiopia: Climate-Resilient Green Economy

December, 2015, in Paris UN Conference of the Parties (COP 21), “to establish binding agreements ambitious enough to limit global warming to 2°C.”