Big Picture: Drought Early Warning and the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) Michael Hayes, Director National Drought Mitigation Center School of Natural Resources University of Nebraska-Lincoln Photo: NRCS, Western Oklahoma, June 2011

2011 Billion Dollar Disasters Groundhog Day Blizzard, 1/29 – 2/3 Tornadoes, 4/4-5 Tornadoes, 4/8-11 Tornadoes, 4/14-16 Tornadoes, 4/25-30 Tornadoes, 5/22-27 Drought, fires, heatwave, spring, summer, fall Mississippi River flooding, spring and summer Upper Midwest flooding, summer and fall Hurricane Irene, 8/27-29 89 Presidential Disaster Declarations

Billion Dollar Disasters NCDC, 1980-2010 Disaster Events Damage$ $/Event Hurricanes 27 367 13.6 Tornadoes 23 45 2.0 Droughts 15 185 12.3 Floods 12 68 5.7 Fires 10 19 1.9 Winter-related 12 41 3.4 Total 99 725 7.3

Drought Impacts Drought is one of the most costly U.S. natural disasters Texas: $5.2 billion in agricultural losses through July Livestock $2.1 billion, Crop losses $3.1 billion $13.1 billion in agricultural losses since 1998 $250 million wildfire damage in Bastrop County $4.5 million for dead tree removal in Houston Oklahoma: more than $2 billion in agricultural losses Kansas: more that $1.7 billion in agricultural losses North Carolina (2010): $8.6 billion loss due to landscapers, nurseries, well drillers, irrigation companies, Christmas tree farmers

The Cycle of Disaster Management

Perspective. Windows of opportunity for risk management.

Report of the NDPC Guiding Principles of a National Drought Policy 1. Favor “preparedness” over insurance, insurance over relief, and incentives over regulation. 2. Set research priorities based on the potential of the research results to reduce drought impacts. 3. Coordinate the delivery of federal services through cooperation and collaboration with nonfederal entities.

Evolution of NIDIS 2007 2004

Public Law 109-430 (The NIDIS Act 2006) National Integrated Drought Information System Public Law 109-430 (The NIDIS Act 2006) “Enable the Nation to move from a reactive to a more proactive approach to managing drought risks and impacts” “…better informed and more timely drought-related decisions leading to reduced impacts and costs.” www.drought.gov

NIDIS Objectives Creating a drought early warning information system: Coordinating national drought monitoring and forecasting systems Providing an interactive drought information clearinghouse and delivery system for products and services—including an internet portal and standardized products (databases, forecasts, Geographic Information Systems (GIS), maps, etc.) Designing mechanisms for improving and incorporating information to support coordinated preparedness and planning 14 14

Drought and Water Resources: Federal Partnerships (States, Tribes, Urban, other) Drought and Flood Impacts Assessments and Scenarios Monitoring & Forecasting Early Warning Information Examples: The Interagency U.S. Water Monitor Streamflow – Reservoirs – Groundwater – Forecasts – Snow http://watermonitor.gov Drought Monitor, NIDIS Engaging Preparedness & Adaptation Communication and Outreach

NIDIS Knowledge Assessments Remote Sensing Contributions to Drought Monitoring Boulder, CO, February 2008 National Status of Drought Early Warning Systems Kansas City, MO, June 2008 Drought, Climate Change, and Early Warning on Western Lands Jackson, WY, June 2009 WGA/WSWC Workshops-NIDIS Constituencies Washingon, DC, October 2009, April 2010, Sept. 2010 Building a Network of Sustainable Communities Chicago, IL, June 2011

The NIDIS U.S. Drought Portal http://drought.gov 19

National Drought Mitigation Center Michael Hayes National Drought Mitigation Center mhayes2@unl.edu http://drought.unl.edu

Managing Drought Risk on the Ranch Drought planning process and web-based educational resource for forage and rangeland producers Initiated with RMA funding in 2006 Collaborators include SDSU, TX A&M, UNL, and ranchers and advisors from SD, NE, KS, CO, TX www.drought.unl.edu/ranchplan

Writing a Ranch Drought Plan Drought planning process developed with input from rancher and advisor stakeholders Interviews and participatory workshop resulted in a recommended process involving 7 planning steps Website includes links to resources to help with drought planning, as well as sample drought plans by producers across the Great Plains

Risk Management Education for Ranchers: Drought Planning, Range Management, and FCIC Options including Pasture, Rangeland, and Forage Insurance RMA Risk Management Education Project 10/11- 9/12 Project Leader: Dr. Cody Knutson, NDMC Goal: increasing ranchers’ capacity to manage drought risk, through improved understanding of: risk management tools such as Pasture, Rangeland, and Forage Insurance, range and forage best management practices, and web-based financial and risk management tools; the types of risk addressed by these risk management tools; and how to make sound risk management decisions using a drought planning methodology developed by the NDMC in conjunction with Great Plains ranchers.

Risk Management Education for Ranchers Products: Workshops in KS, CO, NE; workbook based on Managing Drought Risk on the Ranch website; archived materials available online First workshop scheduled for January 21st, Emporia, KS Workshop Curriculum Downloadable Workbook Updates to Managing Drought Risk on the Ranch Website Materials Development 3 Workshops – KS, NE, CO Participants also view via Webinar Webinars Archived as Web Modules for NDMC and other targeted websites Delivery of Materials Pre- and post-Workshop assessments Follow Up evaluations 1 month post-workshop Documentation of Results