University of Belgrade-Faculty of mining and geology

Slides:



Advertisements
Similar presentations
Energy Technologies for the Poor Technology for poverty alleviation: Relevance and Prospects in South Asia October 10-11, 2003 British Council, New Delhi.
Advertisements

State of the art Of the Solar Energy Sector In Lebanon.
11 Energy Policy in Denmark MONGOLIAN ENERGY DELEGATION 9 September 2013 Danish Energy Agency.
ENERGETSKA EFIKASNOST
Predicting our Climate Future
Improving the Energy Efficiency of the Heat and Hot Water Supply Presenter: Bayramgul Garabaeva, Programme Officer Decentralization and Community Development.
China’s Sustainable Energy Policy
Energy policy and long term energy demand in Croatian households sector Tomislav Pukšec 1 dipl.ing. Prof.dr.sc. Brian Vad Mathiesen 2 Prof.dr.sc. Neven.
E NERGY, E NVIRONMENT AND S USTAINABILITY Gaurav Shukla CUTS International.
Energy Development in China - From a View Point of Sustainable Development Yang Hongwei, Zhou Dadi Energy Research Institute, P. R. China
Introducing the Oman Green Building Centre 19 January 2013 City Season Hotel, Muscat Eng. Issam Mansour Chairman.
Renewables in Lithuania: Reasons for Slownes in the Past and Future Expectations Prof. Jurgis VILEMAS Lithuanian Energy Institute SAS Radison” Vilnius,
POWER SECTOR POLICY OVERVIEW ASSOCIATION FOR POWER UTILITIES OF AFRICA (APUA) SCIENTIFIC COMMITTEE CONFERENCE Presentation by Mr. M. Mulasikwanda Department.
Panel on Water, Food and Energy Overview of the Water & Energy issues and their linkages with food Richard Taylor, Executive Director, International Hydropower.
How to optimize the investment for the production of fuels for renewable energy 20/05/2010 rev.00Pavan Consulting S.r.l.1 Bioenergy International Conference.
Lina Murauskaitė New Challenges in the European Area: Young Scientist’s 1st International Baku Forum May 20-25, 2013, Azerbaijan, Baku Integration of Renewable.
QER SMT Scenario Planning Workshop by Professor Ron Johnston 28 April 2009 Brisbane.
Dr. Ion LUNGU AFEER President. DRIVERS FOR INVESTMENTS Demand; Fuel availability; Market signals; Production costs; Energy mix; Environmental concerns;
Potential EESE Board GHG Emission Targets for the NH Climate Action Plan NH EESE Board Goal Team Sub-Committee Friday, October 16, 2009.
Economic Impact of Energy Saving Measures in PR China Joachim Böhme Senior consultant UNIRULE Institute of Economics Beijing
How to Achieve Universal Modern Energy Access by 2030? Hisham Zerriffi (UBC) Shonali Pachauri (IIASA)
Coal and Sustainable Development David Cain of Rio Tinto for the World Coal Institute UNECE Ad Hoc Group of Experts on Coal and Thermal.
Copenhagen 2025 Climate and Green Growth Putting Visions into Practice BASE London 21June London Jørgen Abildgaard Executive Climate Project Director City.
INTERREG IIIC - REGENERGY Gefördert durch die Europäische Union Promoted by the European Union European District Heating and District Cooling Market Berlin/Leipzig,
Sustainable Energy Systems Focus Area26 Aug – pg. 1 Faculty Environmental Network Bringing Systems Concepts to Environmental Education David Marks,
© OECD/IEA 2011 Energy Efficiency in Central Asia: Challenges and Opportunities VII KAZENERGY EURASIAN FORUM World in Transition Shaping Sustainable Energy.
NEW POSSIBILITIES OF THE BULGARIAN ENERGY SECTOR IN CONNECTION TO CO-OPERATION AND RESEARCH PROJECTS FOCUSED ON PRIORITIES OF THE 6-TH FRAMEWORK PROGRAMME.
 Today, electric energy technologies have a central role in social and economic development at all scales  Energy is closely linked to environmental.
1 Final CLUE conference Scenarios for participation Karel Mulder
11 Measures to support high- efficiency district heating and cogeneration Anders Hasselager Senior Policy Advisor Kiev, 19 May 2016.
Heat Plan Denmark Low Carbon Urban Heating Anders Dyrelund, market manager Rambøll Denmark.
DANIDA and the UNEP Riso Centre Sustainable Energy for All: Powering Africa 24 th September 2012, Eigtveds Pakhus, Copenhagen Access to sustainable energy.
Entrepreneurship for the Renewables Sector A Key Driver of Economic Growth Razieh Ebrahimi Founder & Managing Director Middle East Investment & Management.
Integration in Urban Planning Processes Trikala
Towards a zero-carbon and digital energy system:
Integrated policy frameworks
Department of Livestock Development
Bulgaria Electricity Sector Forecast till year 2030 ENERGOPROEKT – JSC
Oslo Group on Energy Statistics
Template Contents of the Low Carbon Development Strategy (LCDS)
Strategies for a low carbon building stock in Germany
LEVERAGING US EXPERIENCE: INDIA’s ENERGY PRODUCTIVITY ROAD MAP
Coal and Sustainable Development
REFLECTED IN JAMAICA’S ENERGY POLICY
BUSINESS PORTAL ON CLEAN ENERGY
CLIMATE CHANGE POLICY SCENARIOS - BULGARIA
Innovation and Energy Aleksander Śniegocki
Energy Policy Statistical Support Unit
Engaging the private sector
German Emissions Trading Authority (DEHSt)
9-11 October 2013, Athens, Greece
Plausible energy scenarios for use in robust decision making
China’s climate policy initiative: an overview
The Role of Efficient Electrification in the Future Energy System
Translating global action into local strategies
Barriers and enabling tools for renewable heating and cooling
WATER REGULATORY AUTHORITY
Introducing the Energy, Food and Climate “Nexus”
Challenges and opportunities on Islands’ decarbonisation
EU-RUSSIA Cooperation in Energy Efficiency
We represent European civil society in EU institutions
Energy Efficiency and Renewables role in the future energy needs
Engagement with Energy in the Future
Sustainable buildings
Striving to achieve through international standards
Creating a market for sustainable energy growth Inġ
4th International Scientific Conference on Energy and Climate Change
Contact: Third stakeholder meeting on CAFE Baseline 30 April 2004 Issues related to the energy baseline Dr. L. Mantzos, M. Zeka-Paschou.
SUSTAINABLE ENERGY SUPPLY
Smart Cities of High North 2040
Presentation transcript:

University of Belgrade-Faculty of mining and geology Participatory Backcasting Approach in Energy Planning –An Experience from the City of Niš Marija Zivkovic Assistant professor University of Belgrade-Faculty of mining and geology The 7th International Scientific Conference on Energy and Climate Change, Athens, 8-10 October, 2014.

Three classes of scenarios What will happen? What could happen? What should happen?

Participatory backcasting project for the heating system of Nis Figure 1. Heating system interpretation according to process-based approach (Kordas et al., 2013) Figure 2. Algorithm of the Participatory backcasting project for the heating system of the city of Nis

Participatory backcasting project for the heating system of Nis WORKSHOP I Current state overview Problem analyses, Visioning (consensus among stakeholders)- qualitative description Criteria determination and ranking (consensus within groups) Inventory of drivers and their influence to the future system, Determination of key uncertainties, Stories of the future, by groups that consists from stakeholders with the same roles (for example: consumers, local authorities, producers, etc…) WORKSHOP II Weighting of criteria, Selection of two key uncertainties, Scenarios testing against criteria, Robustness test, Scenario(s) selection, Pathway development.

Current state overview and problem analyses Figure 3.Structure of final energy consumption for the heat demand in the household sector in 2010. (Sustainable Energy Action Plan for the City of Nis) Figure 4.Structure of final energy consumption for the heat demand in the public sector in 2010. (Sustainable Energy Action Plan for the City of Nis)

Household sector 90,3 kg CO2/m2

Vision Criteria development "Affordable, comfortable and environmentally friendly heating in the city of Nis". Criteria development What the future system should fulfill?

Criteria with subcriteria

Criteria ranking Reliability and availability Affordability Group 1 Group 2 Group 3 Reliability and availability 0,35 0,30 Affordability 0,25 Environmental acceptance (environmentally friendly) 0,10 0,15 0,20 Comfortable Energy efficiency

Driver analysis High trends key uncertainties Political situation Price of energy Availability of energy sources Demography Price of energy Policy influence Availability of energy sources Standard of life Policy influence Life standard Investment Legislation Legislation Climate change Technical Solutions Climate change Technical and technological progress Demography High Low uncertainty Education Population growth Education Impact Driver analysis Population Awareness of citizens as users Low 12

Options for solutions Level of centralization Basic/Input resources Advancement of technology Energy efficiency of buildings Natural-focus Expansion of DH - 100% multystory+privat (Fully connected system) Individual solutions Fossile fuels Renewable resources Low tech High (smart) technology Low Passive buildings, Not focused Fully focused

Solution 1 “Advanced nature-based” Individual-based + not expanding of DH Renewables + Natural gas (for pick demand) Smart technology Passive for new and maximum possible efficiency for old buildings (retrofitting) Nature focus

Solution 2 “Advanced renewable-based” No nature focus Passive for new and maximum possible efficiency for old Smart technology Renewables + Natural gas (for pick demand) Individual-based (no expanding DH)

Solution 3 “DH expansion + building efficiency” No nature focus Passive for new and maximum possible efficiency for old More advanced technology introduced (co-generation, etc) Renewables (waste incineration+biomass CHE, heat pump on geothermal and waste water, solar accumulators)+natural gas (pick demand) DH expansion

Solution 4 “DH expansion based on renewables” No nature focus Efficiency of building is almost the same as it is now (Example: new buildings – standard “C”, minor improvements for old buildings) More advanced technology introduced (co-generation etc) Renewables-based Examples: waste incineration & biomass-based CHE, heat pump on geothermal and waste water, solar accumulators + natural gas for pick demand DH expansion and connection to the maximum (covers even private sector of the city)

Solution 5 “Nature focused individuals” Passive for new and maximum possible efficiency for old Smart technology Renewables (as much as you can) + natural gas Fully individual-based

Scenario of support - high level of political will of the implementation of laws and regulations that promote the modernization of the heating system, the application of renewable energy, etc. There have been developed support mechanisms, but the economic development isn’t intensive. Extremely positive scenario - the political will of the implementation of laws and regulations that promote the modernization of the heating system, the implementation of renewable energy with a higher standard of living and higher incomes, ie. intensive economic development. Highly increasing energy efficiency by supporting investments in improvements technology in the sector of construction. Political will– high level Economic Development – non intensive Economic Development – intensive Scenario of economic development - political will of the implementation of laws and regulations that promote the modernization of the heating system, the application of renewable energy, etc. is low. There are no developed mechanisms of support, even though the intense economic development, it is lack of adequate supporting results in terms of modernizing the system and increase energy efficiency. Extremely negative scenario - the political will of the implementation of laws and regulations that promote the modernization of the heating system, the application of renewable energy, etc. is low. Without the support with much lower standard of living and very low income. Political will– low level

S4 S1 S2 S3 S5 Group 3 Politička volja – visok nivo Ekonomski razvoj– slab Ekonomski razvoj– intenzivan S3 S5 Group 3 Politička volja – nizak nivo

Present and future Figure 5. Comparison of energy demand for heating in 2030, by scenario

Thank you for attention!