University of Belgrade-Faculty of mining and geology Participatory Backcasting Approach in Energy Planning –An Experience from the City of Niš Marija Zivkovic Assistant professor University of Belgrade-Faculty of mining and geology The 7th International Scientific Conference on Energy and Climate Change, Athens, 8-10 October, 2014.

Three classes of scenarios What will happen? What could happen? What should happen?

Participatory backcasting project for the heating system of Nis Figure 1. Heating system interpretation according to process-based approach (Kordas et al., 2013) Figure 2. Algorithm of the Participatory backcasting project for the heating system of the city of Nis

Participatory backcasting project for the heating system of Nis WORKSHOP I Current state overview Problem analyses, Visioning (consensus among stakeholders)- qualitative description Criteria determination and ranking (consensus within groups) Inventory of drivers and their influence to the future system, Determination of key uncertainties, Stories of the future, by groups that consists from stakeholders with the same roles (for example: consumers, local authorities, producers, etc…) WORKSHOP II Weighting of criteria, Selection of two key uncertainties, Scenarios testing against criteria, Robustness test, Scenario(s) selection, Pathway development.

Current state overview and problem analyses Figure 3.Structure of final energy consumption for the heat demand in the household sector in 2010. (Sustainable Energy Action Plan for the City of Nis) Figure 4.Structure of final energy consumption for the heat demand in the public sector in 2010. (Sustainable Energy Action Plan for the City of Nis)

Household sector 90,3 kg CO2/m2

Vision Criteria development "Affordable, comfortable and environmentally friendly heating in the city of Nis". Criteria development What the future system should fulfill?

Criteria with subcriteria

Criteria ranking Reliability and availability Affordability Group 1 Group 2 Group 3 Reliability and availability 0,35 0,30 Affordability 0,25 Environmental acceptance (environmentally friendly) 0,10 0,15 0,20 Comfortable Energy efficiency

Driver analysis High trends key uncertainties Political situation Price of energy Availability of energy sources Demography Price of energy Policy influence Availability of energy sources Standard of life Policy influence Life standard Investment Legislation Legislation Climate change Technical Solutions Climate change Technical and technological progress Demography High Low uncertainty Education Population growth Education Impact Driver analysis Population Awareness of citizens as users Low 12

Options for solutions Level of centralization Basic/Input resources Advancement of technology Energy efficiency of buildings Natural-focus Expansion of DH - 100% multystory+privat (Fully connected system) Individual solutions Fossile fuels Renewable resources Low tech High (smart) technology Low Passive buildings, Not focused Fully focused

Solution 1 “Advanced nature-based” Individual-based + not expanding of DH Renewables + Natural gas (for pick demand) Smart technology Passive for new and maximum possible efficiency for old buildings (retrofitting) Nature focus

Solution 2 “Advanced renewable-based” No nature focus Passive for new and maximum possible efficiency for old Smart technology Renewables + Natural gas (for pick demand) Individual-based (no expanding DH)

Solution 3 “DH expansion + building efficiency” No nature focus Passive for new and maximum possible efficiency for old More advanced technology introduced (co-generation, etc) Renewables (waste incineration+biomass CHE, heat pump on geothermal and waste water, solar accumulators)+natural gas (pick demand) DH expansion

Solution 4 “DH expansion based on renewables” No nature focus Efficiency of building is almost the same as it is now (Example: new buildings – standard “C”, minor improvements for old buildings) More advanced technology introduced (co-generation etc) Renewables-based Examples: waste incineration & biomass-based CHE, heat pump on geothermal and waste water, solar accumulators + natural gas for pick demand DH expansion and connection to the maximum (covers even private sector of the city)

Solution 5 “Nature focused individuals” Passive for new and maximum possible efficiency for old Smart technology Renewables (as much as you can) + natural gas Fully individual-based

Scenario of support - high level of political will of the implementation of laws and regulations that promote the modernization of the heating system, the application of renewable energy, etc. There have been developed support mechanisms, but the economic development isn’t intensive. Extremely positive scenario - the political will of the implementation of laws and regulations that promote the modernization of the heating system, the implementation of renewable energy with a higher standard of living and higher incomes, ie. intensive economic development. Highly increasing energy efficiency by supporting investments in improvements technology in the sector of construction. Political will– high level Economic Development – non intensive Economic Development – intensive Scenario of economic development - political will of the implementation of laws and regulations that promote the modernization of the heating system, the application of renewable energy, etc. is low. There are no developed mechanisms of support, even though the intense economic development, it is lack of adequate supporting results in terms of modernizing the system and increase energy efficiency. Extremely negative scenario - the political will of the implementation of laws and regulations that promote the modernization of the heating system, the application of renewable energy, etc. is low. Without the support with much lower standard of living and very low income. Political will– low level

S4 S1 S2 S3 S5 Group 3 Politička volja – visok nivo Ekonomski razvoj– slab Ekonomski razvoj– intenzivan S3 S5 Group 3 Politička volja – nizak nivo

Present and future Figure 5. Comparison of energy demand for heating in 2030, by scenario

Thank you for attention!