America’s Divided Recovery: The Growing Role of Postsecondary Education in the U.S. Economy National Job Corps Association September 19, 2016

Over 99 percent of job growth in the recovery went to workers with more than a high school education. Workers with a high school diploma or less saw virtually no jobs recovery.

Job growth by education level Workers with a Bachelor’s degree gained 8.4 million jobs, but employment of workers with a high school diploma or less grew by 80,000 jobs.

Change in workforce composition The recession and recovery have hastened a long-term change in the composition of the American workforce. The Great Recession decimated low-skill, blue-collar and clerical jobs. The recovery added primarily high-skill, managerial and professional jobs. For the first time, workers with a Bachelor’s degree or higher make up a larger share of the workforce (36%) than those with a high school diploma or less (34%).

Major drivers of change Occupational and industry shifts have been major drivers of change in the labor market. Production industries, such as manufacturing and construction, employed nearly half of the workforce in 1947 compared to only 19 percent today. Industries that employ managerial and professional workers, accounted for 28 percent of the workforce in 1947 and have grown to encompass 46 percent of the workforce today.

Demand for postsecondary education has been rising. As the economy has shifted, demand for postsecondary education and training has been on the rise. In 1973 the majority of jobs (nearly ¾) required a high school diploma or less. This has dropped over time. By 2020 most jobs (more than 60%) will require some level of postsecondary education and training. 70 percent of the change is due to rising educational requirements within jobs that did not previously require pse; the remainder is due to the growth of new occupations

Job change by occupation Management added the largest number of jobs of any occupation since 2007 (1.6 million), followed by healthcare professional and technical occupations (1.5 million). Both have a high share of college-educated workers.

Job change by occupation Office and administrative support (-1.5 million) with many middle-skill workers and construction and extraction (-2.2 million) with a large share of high school-educated workers had the greatest job losses. Production (-1.2 million) also lost jobs since 2007.

Most industries have recovered in employment, but construction and manufacturing are lagging behind. Source: Georgetown University Center on Education and the Workforce analysis of Current Population Survey (CPS) data, 2007-2016.

Conclusion The United States is in the midst of two different job recoveries. Postsecondary education (at some level) is now a pre-requisite for many jobs. Workers with a high school diploma or less should earn postsecondary credentials in order to compete effectively in growing high-skill career fields.

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