ROGUE CLIMATE ENGINEERING As the impacts of climate change are felt more intensely around the world and fragmented mitigation policies fail to bring carbon emissions under control, it will become increasingly apparent that not all countries are equally at risk. Beyond the immediate effects of climate disasters, a host of countries—mostly in Africa and Southeast Asia—will face severe economic vulnerabilities. By 2025, without a global consensus to respond rapidly to the causes of climate change, rogue actors are motivated to take matters into their own hands.

WHAT‘S DRIVING THIS FORECAST Failure to slow anthropogenic climate change through behavioral control of carbon emissions Continued increase of atmospheric CO2, ocean temperatures, and global average atmospheric temperatures to levels never before seen in human history Continued research into projects that would ameliorate global warming by removing CO2 or by blocking sunlight Failure of the international community to protect at-risk nations’ interests

HEROIC INTERVENTION Image source: eureka.intven.com WILDCARD: A wealthy engineer embarks on an independent project to hold down global temperatures by injecting sulfate into the stratosphere SIGNAL: Nathan Myhvold supports climate engineering and has developed a specific plan for stratospheric sulfate injection SO WHAT: The capacity to generate solar energy drops by about 20 percent, the ozone layer is weakened, and permanent pollution blocks our study of the stars Image source: eureka.intven.com

DESPERATE STATES WILDCARD: One or more climate-vulnerable nation-states assembles a rapid geoengineering project SIGNAL: The list of states most vulnerable to economic, geographic, and social impacts of climate change includes some that might well be able to mount a significant geoengineering project SO WHAT: Once initiated, it becomes dangerous to halt such a geoengineering project, as temperatures would likely rise precipitously worldwide Cambodia Vietnam Bangladesh Senegal Mozambique Fiji Philippines Nigeria Papua New Guinea Indonesia Suriname Ethiopia Albania Kenya Democratic Republic of Congo India Egypt Thailand Ghana  

LEGAL RAMIFICATIONS WILDCARD: A severe late-autumn typhoon in Southeast Asia triggers a World Court suit against anti-geoengineering states SIGNAL: Dutch citizens have filed a lawsuit against their government for inefficient climate policies, claiming violation of human rights SO WHAT: The use of the court system to decide the advisability of climate engineering opens the door to a proliferation of cases based on real and perceived impacts of both action and inaction Image source: thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/04/14/3646690/pass-that-dutch-climate-change-action/

THE NEXT FIVE YEARS Computer modeling of geoengineering intensifies, increasing the pressure to try real-world experiments Headline disasters trigger growing demands for geoengineering Atmospheric carbon dioxide levels, ocean temperatures, and global average atmospheric temperatures continue to rise More legal suits, fashioned after the Dutch suit, set the stage for suits both for and against geoengineering

TEN-YEAR SCENARIO If a rogue climate engineering project emerges in the coming decade, the outcome in 2025 will depend largely on whether the project is done with state backing. Non-state or “wealthy climate hero” projects would, at a minimum, provoke lawsuits and, in the extreme, could result in directed military action. State-sponsored projects would also see lawsuits, and other governments may even see such action as a potential national security threat. Moreover, any climate-related disasters that arise after such a project begins would likely be blamed on the effort.