Global review of induced and triggered earthquakes

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Presentation transcript:

Global review of induced and triggered earthquakes Miles P. Wilson Gillian R. Foulger, Jon G. Gluyas, Richard J. Davies & Bruce R. Julian British Seismology Meeting 5th-7th April 2017

Contents Disclaimer and terminology Study background HiQuake overview Injection-induced earthquakes Society and induced earthquakes Summary

Disclaimer Not a seismologist ‘Big picture science’ Years Education 2011-2014 B.Sc. (Hons.) Geophysics with Geology (Durham University, UK) 2014-2015 M.Sc. (Distinction) Petroleum Geoscience (Heriot-Watt University, UK) 2015-2016 Research Assistant (ReFINE and Professor Gillian Foulger) 2016- Ph.D. Applied hydrogeological modelling (Durham University, UK) Not a seismologist ‘Big picture science’

Induced – Anthropogenic influence Terminology ‘Induced’ vs. ‘Triggered’ earthquakes Induced Released energy predominantly of anthropogenic origin Triggered Released energy predominantly of natural origin Induced – Anthropogenic influence

Study background Groningen gas field, The Netherlands Production from 1963 2.8 tcm gas in place ~50% natural gas production in the Netherlands Induced earthquakes Maximum observed magnitude ML 3.4 (16/08/2012) Update the 2013 database http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-22542982

Database and website release Study background Project start February 2016 Mmax Workshop for NAM March 2016 AGU presentation December 2016 Database and website release January 2017 Literature review, predominantly peer- reviewed studies Report all suggested cases (not our opinion)

HiQuake overview www.inducedearthquakes.org

Project types 730 projects with reported induced seismicity

Mmax range Most commonly reported Mmax value 3≤M<4

Maximum Mmax’s for different project types Zipingpu Dam, China Emilia sequence, Italy Bachatsky, Russia Gorkha earthquake, Nepal Cerro Prieto, Mexico Pink Mountain, Canada Gazli, Uzbekistan Pawnee, USA Cannikin Bomb, USA Folkestone, UK Rangely, USA In Salah, Algeria

Induced earthquakes through time

Induced earthquakes through time

Induced earthquakes through time

Injection-induced earthquakes McGarr (2014) Anthropogenic control on Mmax?

Injection-induced earthquakes van der Elst et al. (2016) b = 1.2 Ʃ = 0 Ʃ = -3 5% 50% 95% Tectonic control on Mmax?

Injection-induced earthquakes Tectonic or anthropogenic control on Mmax?

Injection-induced earthquakes ? Anthropogenic or tectonic control on Mmax?

Society and induced earthquakes ML 1.5 smallest felt fracking-induced earthquake (BGS, 2016) MW 4.6 in Canada not felt (Atkinson et al., 2016) Earthquake magnitudes (and peak ground accelerations) require context

Society and induced earthquakes We don’t want induced earthquakes to be a risk… But we all use electricity, metals, plastics, petrol, etc. Resource Demand Seismic Risk

Summary Induced earthquakes caused by more industrial activities than generally appreciated HiQuake contains 730 projects, largest proposed induced earthquake has MW 7.9 Recent years have seen an increase in reported injection-induced earthquakes Anthropogenic or tectonic control on Mmax still uncertain Earthquake magnitudes need consideration in societal context Balance needed between resource demand and seismic risk

Thank you www.inducedearthquakes.org miles.wilson@durham.ac.uk

References Atkinson, G. M., Eaton, D. W., Ghofrani, H., Walker, D., Cheadle, B., Schultz, R., Shcherbakov, R., Tiampo, K., Gu, J., and Harrington, R. M. (2016). Hydraulic Fracturing and Seismicity in the Western Canada Sedimentary Basin. Seismological Research Letters, 87(3), 631-647. British Geological Survey (BGS). (2016). Blackpool earthquake, magnitude 1.5, 27 May 2011. http://earthquakes.bgs.ac.uk/research/events/BlackpoolMay2011.html. Retrieved 28.11.16. McGarr, A. 2014. Maximum magnitude earthquakes induced by fluid injection. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 119(2), 1008-1019. van der Elst, N. J., Page, M. T., Weiser, D. A., Goebel, T. H., & Hosseini, S. M. (2016). Induced earthquake magnitudes are as large as (statistically) expected. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 121(6), 4575-4590.