Planning for Autonomous Vehicles AMPO Annual Conference, October 2016 Image credit: http://www.speckdesign.com/articles/2015/6/23/to-possess-or-not-to-possess-the-battle-over-autonomous-car-ownership Presented by Mike Wallace, Fehr & Peers Research Lead by Kevin Johnson, Fehr & Peers AMPO Annual Conference, October 2016

next generation vehicles Looked at autonomous and connected vehicles and their impact on how we think about transportation projects Next generation vehicles include on-demand ride services, autonomous and connected vehicles, and driverless vehicles, some of whom are beginning to look more like cars. Focusing today on autonomous vehicles but findings can be applied to all next generation vehicles

roadmap Why we did this? What we did and findings? How to include in planning? We’d like to provide you with a roadmap for today’s session: I will discuss FP Think history, trends, TrendLab+ and hopefully the results of the poll you take later in the session We’ll then have more focused discussion on the identified topics Lastly, we’ll conduct a Live Poll to crowdsource the groups opinions on the factors that we’ve discussed and have shifted after the presentation and group discussions I will tabulate and share results of the Live Poll

why WE DID THIS “Very smart people have very different opinions on the pace of implementation, market acceptance, and impacts of technology in transportation. But, folks are hungry for answers, and in the absence of information speculation is running rampant” Steven Polzin, University of South Florida Findings serve to enhance our discussions about the foreseeable effects of autonomous vehicles Reduce speculation

why Range of uncertainty WE DID THIS Findings serve to enhance our discussions about the foreseeable effects of autonomous vehicles Reduce speculation

why WE DID THIS Moving beyond opinions. Can we continue to estimate travel behavior with the tools we have when self-driving vehicles are ubiquitous? Not our opinion, based on data from model tests we performed

why WE DID THIS Gauge sensitive our current tools Evaluate uncertainty and make informed decisions We’d like to provide you with a roadmap for today’s session: I will discuss FP Think history, trends, TrendLab+ and hopefully the results of the poll you take later in the session We’ll then have more focused discussion on the identified topics Lastly, we’ll conduct a Live Poll to crowdsource the groups opinions on the factors that we’ve discussed and have shifted after the presentation and group discussions I will tabulate and share results of the Live Poll

what Tested 6 models, 1 underway Performed six tests + cumulative test WE DID Tested 6 models, 1 underway Performed six tests + cumulative test We’d like to provide you with a roadmap for today’s session: I will discuss FP Think history, trends, TrendLab+ and hopefully the results of the poll you take later in the session We’ll then have more focused discussion on the identified topics Lastly, we’ll conduct a Live Poll to crowdsource the groups opinions on the factors that we’ve discussed and have shifted after the presentation and group discussions I will tabulate and share results of the Live Poll

what We Assumed Assumed Level 4, 100% fleet mix

what Increased household auto availability We thought would happen Increased household auto availability Some transit-dependent shift to auto Increased discretionary trip making Big increase in auto and transit trips Decreased value of time Big shift to auto, willing to travel much longer distances Decreased access time Some shift to auto, willing to travel slightly longer distances Decreased parking costs Some shift to auto Increased freeway capacity Some shift to auto, willing to travel much longer distances

what Happened

what Happened Cumulative effect of all six tests: 12% to 68% increase in VMT 2% to 16% increase in vehicle trips 43% decrease to 16% increase in transit trips Comparison to other research: Study from University of Leeds projected as much as a 60% increase in VMT Study by the Atlanta Regional Commission predicted a decrease in public transit trips by as much as 42%

what DO WE DO NEXT Adoption rates

what Additional Tests Decrease auto operating cost DO WE DO NEXT Additional Tests Decrease auto operating cost Increase auto occupancy Safety and reliability Freight

what AV operating cost per mile ($0.15 to $1) DO WE DO NEXT http://cityobservatory.org/how-much-will-autonomous-vehicles-cost/

how Planning Context Start incorporating into current projects

Countywide Multimodal Arterial Plan Francisco Martin, Fehr & Peers Improving multimodal mobility for better economic, health and environmental outcomes Francisco Martin, Fehr & Peers Kyle Shipley, Fehr & Peers David Wasserman, Fehr & Peers

ARTERIAL ROADWAYS Essential to Alameda County: Regional access to state highway system Multimodal access within and around communities and employment centers Supports community’s economic development

SUPPLEMENTAL ANALYSIS SCENARIOS Social and behavioral trends scenario – anticipates lower per capita auto ownership and VMT rates, based on recent trends. Assumes 5 to 10% decrease in traffic volumes compared to standard forecasting approach. Next generation vehicle scenario – anticipates an increase in roadway capacity as a result of autonomous and connected vehicles. Assumes 20% increase in arterial capacity.

NEXT GENERATION VEHICLE RESULTS Travel Reliability Increased – auto and transit reliability increased due to increased capacity. Smoother traffic speeds – auto speeds increased and became more stable due to capacity and fewer collisions.

GIS TOOL Assess multimodal performance Perform needs assessment evaluation Quantify available right-of-away that could be repurposed for improvements Identify multimodal improvements Integrates with CityEngine 3-D visualization software

conclusions Future is uncertain and inevitably different Current tools are available Now is the time to start planning

questions? AMPO Annual Conference, October 2016 Future trends: Mike Wallace, Director of Travel Behavior & Forecasting m.wallace@fehrandpeers.com Kevin Johnson, Senior Transportation Planner k.johnson@fehrandpeers.com AMPO Annual Conference, October 2016 Future trends: AV specifically: http://www.fehrandpeers.com/fpthink/ http://www.fehrandpeers.com/autonomous-vehicle-research-july-2016/