Subseasonal forecast data exchange with LC-LRFMME:

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Presentation transcript:

Subseasonal forecast data exchange with LC-LRFMME:

WMO CBS infrastructure for climate prediction information 12 WMO-designated Global Producing Centres (GPC) for long-range forecasts ▪ agreed procedures/standards in delivery of global long-range forecasts (e.g. products, timeliness, verification/validation info,system documentation) 2 Lead Centres, facilitating user access to GPC products ▪ Collection/display of forecast products: Lead Centre for Long-range Forecast Multi-Model Ensembles (LC-LRFMME) – jointly operated by KMA/NOAA ▪ Collection/display of verification products: Lead Centre for the Standard Verification System for Long-range Forecasts (LC-SVSLRF) – jointly operated by BoM/MSC Products of GPCs and LCs are widely used in NMHSs, RCOFs (Regional Climate Outlook Forum), and RCCs (Regional Climate Centre)

Subseasonal forecast exchange with LC-LRFMME The XVI WMO congress (2011) requested the LC_LRFMME to explore the possibility of extending its role to include the sub-seasonal predictions. The CBS/CCl ET on operational predictions from sub-seasonal to long time scales (ET-OPLSL) recognized the need to coordinate with the WWRP- THORPEX-WCRP research project S2S On February 2014 the S2S steering group discussed the possibility of making use of the S2S research archive to develop a real-time multi-model pilot display at the LC-LRFMME. It was agreed that the operational centres participating in the S2S project would send their real-time forecasts to ECMWF , and ECMWF would impose the agreed 3-week delay on public release of the forecasts, but allow LC-LRFMME access to an agreed subset of the data for use in preparing a display of real- time forecast on their website. On the 6th May the S2S data portal was opened and since than ECMWF has supported the exchange of (selected) real time data to LC-LRFMME.

ECMWF provide the infrastructure for the real-time exchange, the availability of data depend on the participating centres. Five centres (ECMWF, Exeter, Washington, Seoul, and Tokyo) have agreed to the data transfer from the S2S archive to LC-LRFMME without 3-week delay The LC-LRFMME is taking the responsibility to access only the data provided by the participating centres. The data exchange include: SST, T2m, precipitation, u200, v200, u850, OLR. When the display is ready for review the LC-LRFMME will initially only allow access for GPCs; ET-OPSLS will then decide on access. As part of the S2S monitoring, ECMWF is also constructing S2S multi- model products (not in real-time) and it is interested in exchanging experience and opportunities for collaboration with the LC-LRFMME.