David E. Rosenberg Steve Burian Managing Water in the Shared Jordan River Basin HydroEconomics, Engineering, Environment, Drought & Politics David E. Rosenberg Steve Burian

Learning Objectives Differentiate water value from quantity Maximize value Describe major features of the Jordan River basin Identify effects of drought on water value Use shadow value results to suggest new programs & infrastructure Recommend how to restore the Dead Sea Learning Objectives Lebanon Syria Palestine (West Bank) Pal. (Gaza) Jordan Israel Red Sea SAUDI ARABIA EGYPT IRAN PAL. Egypt

Economic Principles “Water is a scarce resource. Scarce resources have value.” Gideon Fishelson Desalinating seawater (plus conveying from the seacoast) puts an upper bound on the value of water in dispute Think about water values not quantities Maximize this value

Maximizing value Water allocation decisions Benefits from use Costs Amount, where, when, and to which users Benefits from use Users: Location and time Costs Limitations on allocations Physical: Policy: min. requirements, set-asides, pricing, etc.

Maximize net welfare Price ($/unit) Quantity (units) Demand Curve Cost function P* Q*

Maximize net benefits (equation form) Quantity (units) Price ($/unit) Cost function C(Q) Demand Curve P(Q) = β (∑qQq)α P* Q* Net Benefits = Area under Demand Curve – Area under Cost Curve

Infrastructure, Management and Policy Constraints minls ≤ Local sourcels ≤ maxls, V ls mini ≤ Importi ≤ maxi , V i mintww ≤ Treated wastewatertww ≤ maxtww, V tww minu ≤ Useu ≤ maxu, V u minsa ≤ Setasidesa ≤ maxsa, V sa and others!! ~ 13,600 equations ~ 48,000 decision variables Above: Zara-Ma’een pipes now deliver up to 47.5 MCM/year

The Middle East Water Project Application The Middle East Water Project Middle ground: Outlet to the Dead Sea, Jordan (400 meters below sea level) Background: Jerusalem Hills, Israel (800 meters above sea level)

Hydrology Rainfall Water Resources Jordan Israel Amman Ma’an Aqaba Zarka Irbid 0 50 100 km 100 mm/yr 500 900 Jerusalem Haifa Hebron Eilat Rainfall i.e, 2 –35 in/year (EXACT, USGS, 1999) Pal. Water Resources

Surface Waters (approximately 1,324 MCM per year) 3. Wadi Zarka (97 Mcm ) 1. Lower Jordan River (< 100 Mcm) 2. Yarkon River 4. Wadi Mujib (35 Mcm )

Groundwater Total: ~ 950mcm/year Mountain aquifers: Northeastern: ~145mcm/year Western: ~360mcm/year Eastern: ~172mcm/year 12 aquifers in Jordan (mostly Yarmuk and Zarqa): ~270mcm/year Total: ~ 950mcm/year

Groundwater Total: ~ 950mcm/year Mountain aquifers: Lebanon Groundwater Syria Mountain aquifers: Palestine (West Bank) Northeastern: ~145mcm/year Western: ~360mcm/year Eastern: ~172mcm/year Pal. (Gaza) 12 aquifers in Jordan ~270mcm/year Israel Total: ~ 950mcm/year Egypt Jordan

Demographics Top: Amman, Jordan (2.2 million) Left: Hebron, West Bank (0.8 million) Below: Haifa, Israel (0.8 million)

Infrastructure Jordan Israel Galilee (500 MCM storage) Amman 0 50 100 km 100 mm/yr 500 900 Galilee (500 MCM storage) National water carrier (Israel, 300-400 MCM) King Abdullah Canal (Jordan, 100–120 MCM) Unity Dam (Jordan, 110/10 MCM capacity/use) Zara-Ma’een (Jordan, 50 MCM) Disi Conveyor (Jordan, <150 MCM) Red Sea-Dead Sea Project (Jordan, Israel, Palestine, 850 MCM)

Some Water-Related History 1918 - Ottoman Empire falls & start of British Mandate 1948 - State of Israel 1952 - Johnson Mediations 1967 - Middle East War 1973 - 2nd Middle East War 1988 - 1st Intifada 1992 - Oslo Accords 1994 - Israel – Jordan Peace 2000 - 2nd Intifada Right: Hijazi railroad bridge across the Yarmuk River bombed during 1967 war

Current issues Contested water rights (Mountain Aquifer, 600 MCM, and lower Jordan River). Role for water conservation Water resources to support future population growth & environmental needs? Share or build private desalination plants? Links to other disputes over land, security, partitioning Jerusalem, and right for Palestinian refugees to return.

Water Allocation System (WAS) Model 45 districts Conveyance capacity Freshwater Recycled water Left: Date palm farm near Arava, Israel warning not to drink the reclaimed water

Model Use It’s complicated Experiment with choices You may not fully understand implications of your inputs Experiment with choices Interact with model The model does not “make” water policy Rather You impose policies Model respects these policies absolutely Model shows how to efficiently implement policies and policy consequences

Model Outputs Demand served to each use in each district Water transfers Shadow value / scarcity rent for water in each district Benefits to add/expand infrastructure Gains from trading water & money

More on shadow values Price buyers will pay (or producers will charge) for 1 more unit Associated with each model mass conservation constraint Marginal cost Model output Amount objective fxn. will increase if relax a binding constraint by one unit Shadow price Depends on availabilities, demands, and policies input by user

Activity #1: Where to desalinate on the Israeli coast? Respond at: http://tinyurl.com/jqdch9t

Activity #2: Where to desalinate on the Israeli coast with 30% supply drop?

Activity #3: Where to target water conservation programs in Jordan? With programs No conservation

Overall net benefits for Jordan in 2020

Raise the Dead [Sea]? 30 m drop since 1960 33% decline surface area Problems Sink holes GW contamination Reduced tourism Decreased mineral extraction 100 MCM/year to Sea Need 1,000 MCM/year

Red Sea-Dead Sea Project Proposal Jordan, Israel, & Palestinian proposal 180 km long Facilities Intake at Aqaba/Eilat Hydropower generation Desalination Pump to Amman Costs $US 5 billion capital $US 1.2/m3 operational World Bank now assessing feasibility

Change in system-wide expected costs when more water goes to Dead Sea

Activity #4: Choose a country Activity #4: Choose a country. What alternative will your country prefer? Why?

Conclusions Allocate water by value not quantity Separate water ownership from water use Separation allows transfers of water and money Monetize and de-emotionalize water conflicts The value of waters in dispute by Palestinians and Israelis is small Water should not be a cause for war Water conservation can generate substantial national and regional benefits Infrastructure alone will not raise the Dead Droughts can change things

Postscript 10+ year collaboration by Israeli, Palestinian, Jordanian, American, and Dutch scientists Separate participation by each government Water not included in the Geneva Accord Continuing work on multi-year model with reservoir storage Activity #5. Jordan continues to pursue the Red-Dead project. Why?

References Fisher et al. (2002). Water Resources Research 38(11), 1243, doi:10.1029/2001. Fisher et al. (2005). “Liquid Assets…” (Resources for the Future, Washington, D.C.). Rosenberg et al. (2008) Water Resources Research 44, W11402, doi:10.1029/2007WR006519. Rosenberg (2011). "Raising the Dead without a Red Sea-Dead Sea project? Hydro-economics and governance." Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 15, 1243-1255, doi:10.5194/hess-15-1243-2011.

Shadow values are spatially related SV1 @ District 1 SV2 @ District 2 CC12 From District 1 to District 2 Interpretation: Build conveyance when difference in shadow values between districts is larger than conveyance cost Build a desalination plant when shadow value in district on a seacoast is greater than desal. cost