Ozone loss in the Arctic in winter 2015/2016

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Presentation transcript:

Ozone loss in the Arctic in winter 2015/2016 F. Goutail, J. P. Pommereau, , A. Pazmiño, F. Lefèvre, LATMOS - CNRS, France, M. Chipperfield, W. Feng, U. Leeds, UK, M. Van Roozendael, BIRA-IASB, Belgium , P. Eriksen, DMI, Denmark, K. Stebel, NILU, Norway, R. Kivi, FMI, Finland, K. Bognar, X. Zhao, K. Walker, K. Strong , U Toronto, Canada. NDACC-France 18/11/2016

Outline: Ozone loss winter 2015/16 Comparison to Models Comparison to previous winters Trends? NDACC-France 18/11/2016

Quantification of chemical ozone loss inside polar vortex Zhigansk (CAO) Salekhard Sodankyla (CNRS/FMI) Harestua (BIRA) NyAlesund (NILU) Thule (DMI) ScoresbySund (CNRS/DMI) Eureka (CNRS/UoT) OBJECTIVES Quantification of chemical ozone loss inside polar vortex METHOD Comparison between measurements and modeled passive ozone -> MEASUREMENTS SAOZ ---- Arctic Network -> MODELS- 3D CTM REPROBUS and SLIMCAT Two runs: 1- Ozone with full chemistry and 2- Passive Ozone NDACC-France 18/11/2016

O3 NO2 PV Example: Sodankyla, Finland O3 NO2 PV at 475 K from Mimosa Model passive O3 (Black: ) SAOZ ( Pink) NO2 at sunrise (blue) at sunset (pink) PV at 475 K from Mimosa O3 NO2 PV IN OUT 1 Dec 15 10 Apr 16 NDACC-France 18/11/2016

O3 NO2 PV Example: Sodankyla, Finland Ozone Loss: Difference between Reprobus passive O3 and SAOZ NO2 diurnal variation indicating chlorine de-activation Inside vortex selection NO2 PV IN OUT 1 Dec 10 Apr NDACC-France 18/11/2016

Evolution of ozone loss above SAOZ stations inside vortex Top Evolution of ozone loss above SAOZ stations inside vortex Bottom Difference between sunset and sunrise NO2 columns inside vortex NDACC-France 18/11/2016

Ozone loss 27 ± 3% NO2 Diurnal Variation Ozone depletion rate - 0.5% / day between January 10 and March 10 Ozone loss stopped on March 10 Total cumulated loss of 27 ± 3% NO2 diurnal increase after March 10 (indicating chlorine de-activation) NDACC-France 18/11/2016

Comparison with REPROBUS : above same SAOZ Stations 27 ± 3% MODEL REPROBUS: 24 ± 3% Comparison with REPROBUS : above same SAOZ Stations Similar results: rate, timing, cumulated loss NDAC-France 18/11/201

Comparison with SLIMCAT : above same SAOZ Stations 27 ± 3% MODEL SLIMCAT: 25 ± 3% Comparison with SLIMCAT : above same SAOZ Stations Similar results: rate, timing, cumulated loss NDACC-France 18/11/2016

Comparison to previous winters NDACC-France 18/11/2016

SAOZ OZONE LOSS : Large inter-annual variability dependent on meteorology, vortex stability, vortex duration 2016: 27% loss, third one in the series 38% in 2011 30% in 1996 NDACC-France 18/11/2016

Record low temperature in 2016 T min 475K North of 60°N 2011 2016 One month with T < T ice in January 2016 -> PSC ice NDACC-France 18/11/2016

Ozone loss vs illuminated PSC volume correlation 2016 : PSC overestimated ( Volume calculation using TNAT) Not adapted for 2016 because of stratosphere dehydrated and denitrified NDACC-France 18/11/2016

TNAT -1.5° because of changes in H2O and HNO3 concentration Ozone loss vs illuminated PSC volume correlation TNAT -1.5° because of changes in H2O and HNO3 concentration -> PSC volume reduced by ~20% NDACC-France 18/11/2016

Is-there a trend on last 20 years? Ozone loss Is-there a trend on last 20 years? SAOZ Ozone loss NDACC-France 18/11/2016

Is-there a trend on last 20 years? Temperature at 475 K (18.5 km) Is-there a trend on last 20 years? Tmin 475K NDACC-France 18/11/2016

Is-there a trend on last 20 years? Temperature at 425 K (16.5 km) Is-there a trend on last 20 years? Tmin 425K NDACC-France 18/11/2016

Impact of climate change ???? Ozone loss Tmin 475K Tmin 425K NDACC-France 18/11/2016

2016: 27±3% ozone loss (3rd largest) CONCLUSIONS 2016: 27±3% ozone loss (3rd largest) Large ozone loss interannual variability, dependent on meteorology and planetary wave activity Ozone loss increase on last 20 years -> related to climate change? NDACC-France 18/11/2016

The end NDACC-France 18/11/2016

SAOZ OZONE LOSS EVOLUTION DURING WINTER: SAOZ OZONE LOSS EVOLUTION DURING WINTER: Large inter-annual variability 0.5%/day in 2016 (red) close to 1996 and 2010 0.7%/day in 2011 -> Largest ozone loss rate (grey) NDACC-France 18/11/2016

- SAOZ OZONE LOSS (blue): Large inter-annual variability 5% in warm winters (1999, 2002, 2004) 20-25% on average - Comparison with REPROBUS (red) and SLIMCAT (black) differences to be analyzed NDACC-France 18/11/2016