Framework Programme 2007-2013: 7th Research Framework Programme 2007-2013: Some aspects

“Cooperation” Specific Programme 6 “Cooperation” Specific Programme 6. Environment (including Climate Change) Climate change, pollution and risks - Natural hazards: core issues Managing natural disasters requires a multi risk approach. There is a need for improved knowledge, methods and integrated framework for the assessment of hazards, vulnerability and risks. Furthermore mapping, prevention and mitigation strategies including consideration of economic and social factors need to be developed. Disasters related to climate (such as storms, droughts, forest fires, landslides, floods), and geological hazards (such as earthquakes, volcanoes, tsunamis) will be studied. This research will allow the underlying processes to be better understood, and prediction and forecasting methods to be improved notably on the basis of a probabilistic approach. It will also underpin the development of early warning and information systems. Societal repercussions of major natural hazards will be quantified.

What do we Mean by Risk ? Hazard Risk Vulnerability Intensity HIGHER RISK Vulnerability Frequency

Disaster Risk Management Disaster Risk Management Involves a Wide Range of Decisions and Actions Disaster Risk Management Risk Identification Risk Reduction Risk Transfer Historical hazard data and analysis  Changing hazard trends  Vulnerability assessment  Risk quantification  Sectoral planning  Early Warning Systems Emergency Preparedness planning  Education and training  Financial tools Insurance Weather derivatives Cat bonds

Need for Partnerships and Coordination Among Different Players

Need for Effective and Harmonized Governance, Organizational and Operational Mechanisms

Risk Analysis Definitions Hazard Analysis Hazard Analysis Report

Definitions Safety: The condition of being safe; free from danger, risk, or injury. Hazard: An activity or condition that is dangerous, that poses the threat of loss (property damage) or harm (personal injury or death). Risk: The potential for loss or harm over time for a given hazard; the combination of hazard severity and the exposure. Severity: The degree of the loss or harm associated with a hazard. Exposure: The amount of exposure to a hazard. Risk Tolerance: The acceptable of level of risk selected for all hazards. Mitigation: An action taken or a feature adopted to reduce the risk for a hazard. For example, safety devices, guarding, warning devices, procedures, and training. Hazard Assessment: A process of identifying and analyzing sources of danger. Risk Analysis: A process of evaluating the severity of consequences and frequency of exposure to hazards, and evaluating of risk tolerance and mitigation. Risk Management: Activities related to monitoring and evaluating hazards to maintain a given level of risk.

Hazard Analysis Steps in Hazard Analysis Identify Risk Tolerance: Determine levels of acceptable risk. Create risk assessment matrix (risk level v. severity and exposure). Hazard Assessment: Identify hazards by reviewing designs, codes, standards, and interviewing workers and users. Evaluate Severity and Frequency of Exposure: Assign severity and frequency of exposure for each hazard. Assign Risk Level: Categorize each hazard to a risk level using the risk assessment matrix. Design Mitigation: Apply mitigation to hazards with unacceptable risk levels. Repeat Hazard Analysis: Repeat until all hazards have an acceptable risk level.

Risk Assessment Matrix HA Flow Chart Risk Assessment Matrix Identify All Hazards For Each Hazard Determine Severity and Frequency of Exposure Apply Mitigation Next Hazard Assign Risk Level Unacceptable Acceptable

Risk Analysis Risk Level Severity of Consequences (1) High – Imperative to reduce risk level. (2) Medium – Requires a mitigation plan. (3) Low – No special risk mitigation activities are required. Severity of Consequences (1) Catastrophic – Death or system loss. (2) Critical - Severe injury or major system damage. (3) Marginal - Injury requiring medical attention or system damage. (4) Negligible - Possible minor injury or minor system damage. Frequency of Exposure (A) Frequent - Expected to occur frequently. (B) Probable - Will occur several times in the life of an item. (C) Occasional - Likely to occur sometime in the life of an item. (D) Remote - Unlikely, but possible to occur in the life of an item. (E) Improbable - So unlikely, it can be assumed occurrence may not be experienced.

Example: Risk Assessment Matrix

DISASTER (What it is?) A serious disruption of the functioning of a community or a society causing widespread human, material, economic and environmental losses which exceed the ability of the affected community / society to cope using its own resources

DISASTER (risk) REDUCTION The systematic development and application of policies, strategies and practices to minimize vulnerability and disaster risks throughout a society, to avoid (prevention) or to limit (mitigation and preparedness) adverse impact of hazards, within the broad context of sustainable development.

MITIGATION Structural and non-structural measures undertaken to limit the adverse impact of natural hazards, environmental degradation and technological hazards. NATURAL HAZARDS Natural process of phenomena occurring in the biosphere that may constitute a damaging event.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT The organization, management of resources and responsibilities for dealing with all aspects of emergencies, in particular, preparedness, response and rehabilitation. A disaster reduction strategy is a global challenge today and for the future. It is a strategy to find a way to live with these phenomena, rather than die from it, since natural disaster cannot be prevented and people are caught unaware when it happened

“Natural Hazards and Planning” Planners will incorporate this new understanding into the planning process. To increase planners’ awareness and understanding of natural hazards. Losses from natural hazards will be reduced.

to minimize loss of life and property from natural disasters. to provide planners with information about innovative and effective planning practice

Good Planning Needs to Incorporate Understanding of Natural Hazards

Lacks Most planners do not adequately address natural hazards. Planners lack adequate technical information and resources to identify and map hazards. Some state and local governments lack adequate authority to regulate hazards.

Integral Planning of Measures Integral Planning of Measures The Risk Concept may serve as a conceptual frame to address natural hazards and risks. Three basic questions have to be answered: What can happen? What is acceptable? Analysis of Risks Assessment of risks What needs to be done? Integral Planning of Measures Integral Planning of Measures

The term “risk” Definition (ISDR) "The probability of harmful consequences, or expected losses resulting from interactions between natural or human-induced hazards and vulnerable conditions." Conventionally risk is expressed by the notation Risk = Hazards x Vulnerability frequency, magnitude exposure, value, susceptibility  To focus on the notion of risk constitutes a shift from hazard- orientated actions to more risk-based approaches.

Analysis of risks The question “what can happen” covers: Magnitude and frequency of hazards Economic, social and physical vulnerability Danger map for Täsch Hazard and risk maps are appropriate instruments to visualize local conditions, particularly in mountainous communities. They are, for instance, an excellent tool for land-use planning or emergency management.

The question “what is acceptable to happen” addresses ... Evaluation of risks The question “what is acceptable to happen” addresses ... … socio-economic, cultural and political aspects. It is evaluated how much risk a particular society or community is able and willing to carry. The risk evaluation, therefore, is based on livelihood conditions, values and beliefs and personal or community experience.