Sea Level Scenario Sketch Planning Tool Crystal Goodison, Associate Director Reginald Pierre-Jean, Geospatial Software Developer University of Florida GeoPlan Center Coastal Resiliency Tools Buffet October 26, 2016

Roadmap for Presentation 9:30am – 10:30am Background Methods & Overview of Tool Components Case Studies Continuing Work (Storm Surge Modeling & Tool Development) Demo of Map Viewer 10:30am – 10:45am – Break/ Stretch/ Coffee 10:45am – noon – Map Viewer Exercises (in groups)

Sketch Tool: Purpose and Intent A starting place to assess potential impacts of sea level rise on the transportation system Map where and when sea level rise is projected to occur in Florida Use local tide gauge data to develop regional projections of sea level rise Develop a planning-level tool for quick assessment of potential transportation impacts under various SLR scenarios

FDOT’s SLR Research FAU’s Research Report (completed Jan 2012) Comprehensive analysis of SLR projections, studies, models and methodologies used in Florida. Resulting recommendations: (1) Apply U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) methodology to develop statewide and regional projections of SLR (2) Develop a sketch planning tool to identify potentially vulnerable infrastructure UF GeoPlan Center Research Implement FAU recommendations Phase 1: Feb 2012 - Oct 2013, Phase 2: Dec 2013 –October 2015, Phase 3: Jan 2016 – April 2017

SKETCH TOOL Phase 1 Goals Map Inundation: Map where & when inundation is projected to occur in Florida. Use USACE methods to develop statewide and regional sea level change projections by decade 1992 - 2100. Develop GIS planning tool to facilitate identification of transportation infrastructure potentially at risk to projected sea level changes.

Project Team Florida Department of Transportation, Office of Policy Planning Maria Cahill, Project Manager University of Florida GeoPlan Center Crystal Goodison, Principle Investigator – Phase 2 & 3 Alexis Thomas, Principle Investigator – Phase 1 Russell Watkins, Ph.D, Co-PI – Phase 1 Reginald Pierre-Jean, Software Developer Katherine Norris, GIS Analyst Sam Palmer, GIS Analyst Daniel Downing, Web GIS Specialist Lance Barbour, Systems Administrator

METHODS & OVERVIEW OF TOOL

Mapping SLR: Data Inputs & Methods Tide Gauge Data & Sea Level Trends Local trend data and water levels Elevation Data USACE Sea Level Change Projections Future scenarios of SLR. How fast will SLR and when? Use local data for projections High resolution, Lidar- based Digital Elevation Model (DEM)

USACE Sea Level Change Projections 2100 5.08 ft 2060 6 – 27 in 22 in 9 in 2030 3 - 10 in

NOAA/ NATIONAL Climate ASSESSMENT Projections

Why DO WE NEED SO MANY PROJECTIONS? UNCERTAINTY! LOW/ HISTORIC Applicable when designing low risk projects Easily replaceable infrastructure with short design lives Not critical infrastructure/ Limited interdependencies with other infrastructure INTERMEDIATE Applicable to projects with short –to-mid term planning horizon HIGH CURVE High risk projects constructed in longer time frames (many decades out) Critical infrastructure for services and connectivity Not easily replaceable Long design life

Mapping SLR Inundation: Output Data Layers Hundreds of GIS layers, each representing a SLR Scenario: Where Scenario = Region, Year, Projection, Tidal Datum Region: statewide or for FDOT District Year: decadal intervals, 2040 – 2100 USACE Projection: (1) low/ historic, (2) intermediate (3) high Tidal Datums: MHHW, MSL Model output: Bathtub and hydro-connected inundation

SLR Inundation Data Layers Subset of Old Tampa Bay area Clearwater Beach Tide Gauge 2060, High Curve, MHW 1-meter inundation Bathtub Inundation Inundation with Hydro- connectivity filter

Potentially Affected Transportation Infrastructure Intersected inundation layers with transportation layers: roadways, rails, rail freight connectors, SIS airports, SIS sea ports Focus on State owned facilities Outputs: GIS layers identifying potentially at-risk transportation facilities w/ approximate miles or area affected/ inundated

UF GeoPlan Phase 1 Goals Map Inundation: Map where & when inundation is projected to occur in Florida. Use USACE methods to develop statewide and regional sea level change projections by decade 1992 - 2100. Develop GIS planning tool to facilitate identification of transportation infrastructure potentially at risk to projected sea level changes.

Sea Level Scenario Sketch Planning Tool Map Viewer Visualize areas of inundation and affected infrastructure Low technical expertise needed, no GIS software needed GIS Data Layers SLR Inundation Surfaces & Affected Infrastructure layers GIS Software and intermediate GIS expertise needed SLR Inundation Surface Calculator Create custom inundation layers Intermediate/ Advanced technical/ GIS expertise needed

VIEW AFFECTED TRANSPORTATION FACILITIES Tampa Bay, 2080, High Projection View transportation facilities potentially exposed to inundation various SLR scenarios. Available transportation layers by scenario

VIEW AFFECTED TRANSPORTATION FACILITIES Bayshore Blvd, Downtown Tampa View details about affected facilities/ infrastructure under various SLR scenarios

New Map Viewer

SLR INUNDATION SURFACE CALCULATOR ArcMap Add-in Inputs: NOAA tide gauge data USACE curve Year (by decade 2020-2100) Tidal Datum DEM Outputs Bathtub model Hydro-connectivity filter Vector & Raster formats Currently supported on ArcMap 10.1, 10.2.2, 10.3.1 Requires Spatial Analyst

CASE STUDIES: APPLICATIONS OF THE TOOL

Sketch Tool – WHY AND HOW TO USE IT? Uses (to name a few…): Evaluate regional SLR scenarios and impacts to transportation over time Identify a broad timeline for tipping points (when do SLR impacts get really bad?) Match timing of impacts with planning horizons Match timing of impacts with type of infrastructure improvements/ investments Engage community in discussion Utilize information to prioritize transportation improvements Analyze evacuation routes for susceptibility to permanent inundation Use base GIS layers of inundation for community vulnerability assessments Target Audience/ Users MPOs, RPCs, counties & municipalities doing regional level community resilience planning

Sketch Tool: NOT Intended FOR Not to be used for site specific analyses or site design. Not specific to a year. Projections are by decade. Not intended to be used for stormwater or drainage design. Does not include assessment impacts of SLR on groundwater. Not to be used for property assessment/ evaluation.

Phase 2: Testing the Tools Hillsborough Metropolitan Planning Organization Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) Climate Change Resilience Pilot Southeast Florida FHWA Climate Change Resilience Pilot City of Satellite Beach Vulnerability Assessment Monroe County Vulnerability Assessment Sarasota County – Assessment of Critical Infrastructure

Case Studies: Testing the Tools Hillsborough Metropolitan Planning Organization FHWA Climate Change Resilience Pilot Used Sketch Tool map viewer, GIS data, geo-processing scripts to facilitate overlays of critical infrastructure analysis of storm surge and flooding.

Case Studies: Testing the Tools Southeast Florida FHWA Climate Change Resilience Pilot 4 County Study Area: Broward, Palm Beach, Miami-Dade, Monroe. Led by Broward MPO. Used Sketch Tool SLR scenarios, GIS data, created custom bridge elevation data, reviewed and researched storm surge modeling.

Case Studies City of Satellite Beach Monroe County Sarasota County ECFRPC used Sketch Tool GIS data & SLR Calculator in vulnerability assessment. Monroe County Evaluated county transportation facilities potentially inundated under various SLR scenarios, Dr. Jason Evans, Stetson Univ. Sarasota County County staff used ArcMap SLR Calculator to generate scenarios & analyze critical facilities.

Phase 2 FEEDBACK What about Storm Surge? What about Flooding? SLR will increase surge extent/ depth of flooding/ intensity of damage What about Flooding? “Nuisance Flooding”: SLR is causing an increase in flooding frequency in coastal communities from heavy rain during high tide conditions “Sunny Day Flooding”/ “King Tides”: During high tide conditions (but not rain) SLR is causing flooding What about NOAA curves? Higher projected SLR than USACE (2m SLR by 2100 vs 1.5m for USACE) Update user interface/ design of map viewer

CONTINUING WORK

Continuing Work: Phase 3 (2016-17) Tool Enhancements: Map Viewer – major update and modernization SLR Calculator – new version w/ increased functionality Data Enhancements Re-run of inundation layers with latest elevation data Add NOAA SLR Projections Model updates – tidal surfaces from NOAA Update analysis of affected transportation facilities Look at multiple flood risks along transportation facility: SLR will exacerbate storm surge and flood events Look at current & future flood risk + SLR (Hazus Pilot: Resilient Volusia)

Continuing Work: TOOL Training Technical Training for Planning Professionals Regional Planning Councils 2016: RPCs “Train the Trainers” Metropolitan Planning Organizations 2016-2017: Training with MPOs on how to use the new tool components for assessing vulnerable infrastructure. Developing training now, offer training in Spring/ Summer 2017. Profiles of vulnerable assets (summary report for quicker ingest). We will travel to you!

STORM SURGE MODELING

STORM SURGE & SEA LEVEL RISE Sea level rise (SLR) is expected to exacerbate coastal flooding events, increasing the extent and depth of flooding as well as the intensity of damage from storms. Current flood prone areas will flood more frequently. Estimated that a current 100-year magnitude surge could occur every 20 years under 2050 sea level rise scenario (Tebaldi et al. 2012).

Storm Surge MODELING GOALS How do we model future coastal flood risk under SLR scenarios? Estimate the depth and extent of coastal flooding under future SLR conditions and assess those impacts to the transportation network. Use Existing Models. Do not re-invent the wheel. Examples: SLOSH, FEMA Hazus-MH. A modeling method that was replicable for most coastal areas in the state and applicable to planning-level analyses

Hazus-MH STORM SURGE MODELING APPROACHES Modeling work led by Dr. Paul Zwick, Professor of Urban & Regional Planning, University of Florida, Hazus-MH Trained Professional Hazus-MH: nationally applicable standardized methodology that contains models for estimating potential losses from earthquakes, floods, and hurricanes. Used for mitigation planning and recovery. Two approaches for modeling future coastal flood risk under sea level rise scenarios using FEMA’s Hazus-MH software: (1) Model 1% annual chance or 100-year storm with SLR (2) Model Historic Hurricane/ Storm with SLR Pilot approaches in study area: ECFRPC DEP CPI - Volusia County

HAZUS-MH FLOOD MODEL 1% ANNUAL CHANCE OR 100-YEAR STORM FEMA’s methodology for developing the FIRMs, where flood frequency and flood magnitude (or depth) are used to define flood hazard. The model relies on the 100-year Stillwater elevation (SWEL) and Stillwater depth (SWD) to identify the inland impacts of storm surge. Stillwater Elevation: flood level not including the effects of waves, but including storm surge and astronomical tides. Coastal flooding scenarios were run on the entire Atlantic coastline of Volusia County using the FEMA 100-year or 1% annual chance flood event as a baseline scenario. Raise SWEL (Add SLR to SWEL) before running surge model

HAZUS-MH COASTAL SURGE MODEL Modeling Historic Storm with addition of SLR Coastal Surge Model – coupled storm surge and wave hazard Uses SLOSH for storm surge Modify initial starting water level to represent “future” water level under SLR conditions before running hurricane surge. Limitations: only historical hurricanes of Cat 3 & higher are available. Closest historic hurricane available was Hurricane Dora, which made landfall near St. Augustine in 1964.

SEA LEVEL RISE SCENARIOS: VOLUSIA COUNTY Nine SLR scenarios were added to the coastal Stillwater elevations for the base 100-year storm before running coastal flood model. AND added to initial water level before running Hurricane Dora. USACE SLR Projections Feet of RSLR (relative to MSL) Daytona Beach Shores, FL   Low Intermediate High 2040 0.37 ft 0.57 ft 1.22 ft 2070 0.59 ft 1.14 ft 2.85 ft 2100 0.82 ft 1.86 ft 5.15 ft

DEMO/ GUIDED WALK THROUGH OF MAP VIEWER

GROUP EXERCISE: EXPLORE THE MAP Group Training Exercises (handout) Use Data Layers Guide (handout) Report out: What did you find? When does SLR look like for your area? When do road impacts (if any) begin to occur for your area? What does future flood risk look like for your area? Based on your knowledge of your local area, is inundation/ flooding showing up where you would expect? Feedback! Errors, problems, suggestions, recommendations….

Project Website *Map Viewers *Data & Tools * Reports http://sls.geoplan.ufl.edu Contact: Crystal Goodison Associate Director, GeoPlan Center, Room 131 A goody@geoplan.ufl.edu 352-392-2351