FROM RISK MANAGEMENT TO QUANTITATIVE DISASTER RESILIENCE A PARADIGM SHIFT Slobodan P. Simonović FCAE, FCSCE, FASCE, FIWRA Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Western University London, Canada

2| CONCLUSIONS There are practical links between adaptation to global change and sustainable development leading to: re-enforcing resilience as a new development paradigm Systems approach to quantification of resilience allows: capturing temporal and spatial dynamics of disaster management better understanding of factors contributing to resilience more systematic assessment of various measures to increase resilience Understanding of local context of vulnerability and exposure is fundamental for increasing resilience Regional Resilience Assessment Program

3| PRESENTATION OUTLINE Introductory remarks From risk to resilience Limitations of risk management Definition of resilience Quantification of resilience Implementation of quantitative resilience measure Systems approach (simulation, time and space) Examples Climate change caused urban flooding Multi purpose reservoir operation Urban infrastructure network system Conclusions

4| INTRODUCTION Principal investigator Research support Principal investigator Systems Engineering Approach to the Reliability of Complex Hydropower Infrastructure NSERC CRD with BC Hydro: 2014-2018 $673,334 Linking Hazard, Exposure and Risk Across Multiple Hazards NSERC CRD with Chaucer Synd.: 2015-2019 $1,375,600 Co-investigator Coastal Cities at Risk (CCaR): Building Adaptive Capacity for Managing Climate Change in Coastal Megacities IDRC - International Research Initiative on adaptation to Climate Change: 2011 – 2016 $2,500,000 Advanced Disaster, Emergency and Rapid Response Simulation NSERC CREATE: 2015-2021 $1,650,00

5| INTRODUCTION Global change Infrastructure systems (hard) Population growth Land use change Climate change Complexity and uncertainty Infrastructure systems (hard) Water Energy Transport Communications Infrastructure (soft) Institutional Social Cultural

6| INTRODUCTION Shifts in disaster management There is a shift in the approach to effective disaster management: from focusing on disaster risk reduction strategies to focusing on building disaster resilience through effective adaptation actions; from considering static characteristics of vulnerable types of populations to considering the dynamic attributes of resilient communities; and beginning to recognize the importance of both the spatial and temporal dynamics of resilience. Focus on resilience provides: a positive approach to disaster management; for consideration of opportunities that arise in the wake of a disaster; and an opportunity to grow and improve a situation to reduce future potential impacts. Systems analysis based approach: simulation (short and long term); and systematic assessment of various options to increase resilience.

7| RISK TO RESILIENCE The broad definition Need for paradigm change The broad definition The combination of the probability of an event and its negative consequences. Risk = Hazard x Consequence

8| RISK TO RESILIENCE Risk management framework Resilience framework Need for paradigm change Risk management framework Static (in time and space) Difficulties in assessing probability of extreme events Difficult integration of physical, social, economic and ecological concerns Resilience framework Dynamic (in time and space) Not only assessment of direct and indirect losses – broader framework

9| RESILIENCE Initial ecology-based (Holling, 2001) Hazard – based Definitions Initial ecology-based (Holling, 2001) …the ability of a system to withstand stresses of ‘environmental loading’… Hazard – based …capacity for collective action in response to extreme events… …the capacity of a system, community, or society potentially exposed to hazards to adapt, by resisting or changing, in order to reach and maintain an acceptable level of functioning and structure… …the capacity to absorb shocks while maintaining function… …the capacity to adapt existing resources and skills to new situations and operating conditions… Used in this research …the ability of an infrastructure system and its component parts to anticipate, absorb, accommodate or recover from the effects of a system disruption in a timely and efficient manner, including through ensuring the preservation, restoration or improvement of its essential basic structures and functions… System performance and system adaptive capacity

10| RESILIENCE Quantification 𝜌 𝑡 = 𝑡 0 𝑡 𝑃 0 −𝑃 𝜏 𝑑𝜏 𝜌 𝑡 = 𝑡 0 𝑡 𝑃 0 −𝑃 𝜏 𝑑𝜏 𝑟 𝑡 =1−[ 𝜌 𝑡 𝑃 0 × 𝑡− 𝑡 0 𝑡∈[ 𝑡 0 , 𝑡 𝑟

11| RESILIENCE Implementation – temporal dynamics 𝜕𝑟(𝑡 𝜕𝑡 =𝐴𝐶 𝑡 −𝑃 𝑡

12| RESILIENCE SD GIS Implementation – spatial dynamics dynamic data exchange Temporal dynamics Spatial dynamics

13| RESILIENCE Implementation – temporal and spatial dynamics 𝜌 𝑡,𝑠 = 𝑡 0 𝑡 𝑃 0 −𝑃 𝜏,𝑠 𝑑𝜏 𝑟 𝑡,𝑠 =1−[ 𝜌 𝑡,𝑠 𝑃 0 × 𝑡− 𝑡 0 𝜕𝑅(𝑡,𝑠 𝜕𝑡 =𝐴𝐶 𝑡,𝑠 −𝑃 𝑡,𝑠 System disruption! 𝑡∈[ 𝑡 0 , 𝑡 𝑟

14| EXAMPLE 1 Vancouver Impacts (i) Climate change caused urban flooding Vancouver Sea level rise Riverine flooding Set of climate scenarios Impacts (i) Physical Social Health Economic 𝜕𝑅(𝑡,𝑠 𝜕𝑡 = 𝑖 𝐴𝐶 𝑖 𝑡,𝑠 − 𝑃 𝑖 𝑡,𝑠

15| EXAMPLE 1 Climate change caused urban flooding

16| EXAMPLE 2 Reservoir (BC Hydro) Continuity Multi purpose reservoir operation Reservoir (BC Hydro) Hydropower production Water supply Continuity 𝑆 𝑡 = 𝑆 𝑡−1 + 𝐼 𝑡 − 𝑇𝑅 𝑡 − 𝑂 𝑡 − 𝑆𝑃 𝑡 Power production 𝑃 𝑡 = 𝛾 ∗𝑃𝑅 𝑡 ∗ 𝜂∗( 𝐸 𝑡 − 𝐸 𝑇𝐿 ) System performance 𝑆𝑃 𝑝,𝑡 = 𝑃𝑅 𝑡 𝑃𝑅 𝑡 𝑑𝑒𝑚𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑆𝑃 𝑖,𝑡 = 𝑊𝑆 𝑡 𝑊𝑆 𝑡 𝑑𝑒𝑚𝑎𝑛𝑑 Resilience 𝐶𝑆𝑃 𝑖,𝑡 = 𝑡0 𝑡 [ 𝑆𝑃 𝑖,0 − 𝑆𝑃 𝑖,𝑡 ] 𝑑𝑡 𝐷𝑅 𝑖,𝑡 =1− 𝐶𝑆𝑃 𝑖,𝑡 𝑆𝑃 𝑖,0 × 𝑡− 𝑡 0 𝑆𝑅 𝑡 = ∏ 𝑖=1 𝐼 𝐷𝑅 𝑖,𝑡 1 𝐼

17| EXAMPLE 2 Turbine failure Water scarcity Multi purpose reservoir operation Turbine failure Single event Temporal variability No spatial variability Water scarcity Water supply Temporal and spatial variability

18| EXAMPLE 3 Urban infrastructure network Urban infrastructure network system Urban infrastructure network Four layers: Streets Water supply Energy supply Information Nodes and edges (two states) Intra and interconnections Node node Node edge Node path Node cluster Single and multiple disasters Five recovery strategies First repair first failures First repair last failures First repair important components independently First repair the obvious dependent elements First repair the hidden dependent elements

19| EXAMPLE 3 Urban infrastructure network system Robustness: refers to the ability of a system to withstand a given level of stress without suffering degradation or loss function. The common measure for network robustness is the critical fraction at which the system completely collapses Resourcefulness: is the capacity to develop and implement mitigation and response strategies to a specific disturbance. It is limited by the ability to obtain sufficient monetary, physical, technological, informational and human resources necessary to meet established priorities Rapidity: refers to the capacity to meet priorities and achieve goals in a timely manner. This work uses the duration of system recovery to denote rapidity,

20| EXAMPLE 3 Test network Urban infrastructure network system Four layers of four cells 16 street nodes and 54 street segments 16 water network nodes and 16 water pipes 36 power network nodes and 16 transmission lines 5 information network nodes and 8 information network lines

21| EXAMPLE 3 Urban infrastructure network system

22| CONCLUSIONS There are practical links between adaptation to global change and sustainable development leading to: re-enforcing resilience as a new development paradigm Systems approach to quantification of resilience allows: capturing temporal and spatial dynamics of disaster management better understanding of factors contributing to resilience more systematic assessment of various measures to increase resilience Understanding of local context of vulnerability and exposure is fundamental for increasing resilience Regional Resilience Assessment Program

Research -> FIDS -> Research projects 23| RESOURCES www.slobodansimonovic.com Research -> FIDS -> Research projects Simonovic, S.P., and A. Peck, (2013) "Dynamic Resilience to Climate Change Caused Natural Disasters in Coastal Megacities - Quantification Framework", British Journal of Environment and Climate Change, 3(3): 378-401. Simonovic, S.P., and R. Arunkumar, (2016) “Quantification of resilience to water scarcity, a dynamic measure in time and space”, Proc. IAHS, 93:1–5, 2016, doi:10.5194/piahs-93-1-2016. Simonovic, S.P., (2016) “From risk management to quantitative disaster resilience – a paradigm shift”, International Journal of Safety and Security Engineering, 6(1):1–12.

24| Slobodan P. Simonović Computer-based research laboratory Research: Research facility Computer-based research laboratory Research: Subject Matter - Systems modeling; Risk and reliability; Water resources and environmental systems analysis; Computer-based decision support systems development. Topical Area - Reservoirs; Flood control; Hydropower energy; Operational hydrology; Climatic Change; Integrated water resources management. > 70 research projects; ~ $11.5 M 6 visiting fellows, 14 PosDoc, 20 PhD and 39 MESc 3 PosDoc’s, 4 PhD, 4 MESc and 1 visiting

25| Slobodan P. Simonović > 490 professional publications Research results > 490 professional publications 205 in peer reviewed journals 3 major textbooks Water Resources Research Reports 95 volumes ~50,000 downloads since 2011

26| Slobodan P. Simonović Current research projects Coastal Cities at Risk - Building Adaptive Capacity for Managing Climate Change in Coastal Megacities Extreme Flow Uncertainty Under Changing Climatic Conditions Water Resources Management Capacity Building in the Context of Global Change Systems Engineering Approach to the Reliability of Complex Hydropower Infrastructure Advanced Disaster, Emergency and Rapid Response Simulation Linking Hazard, Exposure and Risk Across Multiple Hazards