10b Growth

General Information 24.10. Introduction; Transformation Curve, Opportunity Cost Mankiw ch.1,2 31.10. Markets: Demand and Supply Ch. 4 7.11. Elasticities Ch. 5 14.11. Costs, Production Function Ch. 13 21.11. Markets with perfect competiton Ch. 7, 14 28.11. Taxation Ch. 8 5.12. International Trade Ch. 9 12.12. Imperfect competition: Monopoly, and Oligoploy Ch. 15, 16 19.12. Public Goods, Externalities Ch. 10,11 9.1. National Accounting, Gross Domestic Product, Growth Ch. 23, 25 16.1. Money and Inflation Ch. 24, 29, 30 23.1. Business Cycles Ch. 33, 34 30.1. Open Economy Macro Ch. 31

The Production Function Production functions with constant returns to scale have an interesting implication. Setting x = 1/L, Y/ L = A F(1, K/ L, H/ L, N/ L) Where: Y/L = output per worker K/L = physical capital per worker H/L = human capital per worker N/L = natural resources per worker

International Evidence on Investment Rates and Income per Person

Diminishing Returns and the Catch-Up Effect As the stock of capital rises, the extra output produced from an additional unit of capital falls; this property is called diminishing returns. Because of diminishing returns, an increase in the saving rate (investment rate) leads to higher growth only for a while. In the long run, the higher saving rate leads to a higher level of productivity and income, but not to higher growth in these areas.

Diminishing Returns and the Catch-Up Effect The catch-up effect refers to the property whereby countries that start off poor tend to grow more rapidly than countries that start off rich.

Conditional convergence: 21 OECD countries

Investment from Abroad Governments can increase capital accumulation and long-term economic growth by encouraging investment from foreign sources. Investment from abroad takes several forms: Foreign Direct Investment Capital investment owned and operated by a foreign entity. Foreign Portfolio Investment Investments financed with foreign money but operated by domestic residents

Education For a country’s long-run growth, education is at least as important as investment in physical capital. In the United States, each year of schooling raises a person’s wage, on average, by about 10 percent. Thus, one way the government can enhance the standard of living is to provide schools and encourage the population to take advantage of them.

Education An educated person might generate new ideas about how best to produce goods and services, which in turn, might enter society’s pool of knowledge and provide an external benefit to others. One problem facing some poor countries is the brain drain—the emigration of many of the most highly educated workers to rich countries.

Some countries engage in . . . Free Trade Some countries engage in . . . . . . inward-orientated trade policies, avoiding interaction with other countries. . . . outward-orientated trade policies, encouraging interaction with other countries.

Research and Development The advance of technological knowledge has led to higher standards of living. Most technological advance comes from private research by firms and individual inventors. Government can encourage the development of new technologies through research grants, tax breaks, and the patent system.

11 Money and Inflation

THE MEANING OF MONEY Money is the set of assets in an economy that people regularly use to buy goods and services from other people.

Money has three functions in the economy: The Functions of Money Money has three functions in the economy: Medium of exchange Unit of account Store of value Medium of Exchange A medium of exchange is an item that buyers give to sellers when they want to purchase goods and services. A medium of exchange is anything that is readily acceptable as payment.

The Functions of Money Unit of Account Store of Value A unit of account is the yardstick people use to post prices and record debts. Store of Value A store of value is an item that people can use to transfer purchasing power from the present to the future.

Commodity money takes the form of a commodity with intrinsic value. The Kinds of Money Commodity money takes the form of a commodity with intrinsic value. Examples: Gold, silver, cigarettes. Fiat money is used as money because of government decree. It does not have intrinsic value. Examples: Coins, currency, check deposits.

BANKS AND THE MONEY SUPPLY Banks can influence the quantity of demand deposits in the economy and the money supply. Reserves are deposits that banks have received but have not loaned out. In a fractional-reserve banking system, banks hold a fraction of the money deposited as reserves and lend out the rest. Reserve Ratio The reserve ratio is the fraction of deposits that banks hold as reserves.

Money Creation with Fractional-Reserve Banking When a bank makes a loan from its reserves, the money supply increases. The money supply is affected by the amount deposited in banks and the amount that banks loan. Deposits into a bank are recorded as both assets and liabilities. The fraction of total deposits that a bank has to keep as reserves is called the reserve ratio. Loans become an asset to the bank.

Money Creation with Fractional-Reserve Banking This T-Account shows a bank that… accepts deposits, keeps a portion as reserves, and lends out the rest. It assumes a reserve ratio of 10%. Assets Liabilities First National Bank Reserves €10.00 Loans € 90.00 Deposits € 100.00 Total Assets Total Liabilities

Money Creation with Fractional-Reserve Banking When one bank loans money, that money is generally deposited into another bank. This creates more deposits and more reserves to be lent out. When a bank makes a loan from its reserves, the money supply increases.

Figure 1 Measures of the Money Stock Billions of € Repurchase Agreements €240.3bn Money market fund shares/units €618.9bn Debt securities w/ maturity up to two years €102.3bn M3 M2 € 5573.7 • Deposits w/ maturity up to 2 yrs, € 1026.5bn • Everything in M2 (€ 5573.7 bn) • Deposits redeemable with notice up to 3 months €1634.5 bn M1 €2912.7 • Overnight deposits € 2460 billion • Everything in M1 (€ 2912.7 bn) • Currency € 452.7 billion

Functions of a Central Bank Two Primary Functions of Central Banks Act as a banker’s bank, making loans to banks and as a lender of last resort. Conducts monetary policy by controlling the money supply. by controlling the internal value of the currency (price stability) by controlling the external value of the currency (exchange rate)

The Central Bank’s Tools of Monetary Control The Central Bank has three tools in its monetary toolbox: Open-market operations Changing the reserve requirement Changing the discount rate

The Fed’s Tools of Monetary Control Open-Market Operations The CB conducts open-market operations when it buys government bonds from or sells government bonds to the public: When the CB buys government bonds, the money supply increases. The money supply decreases when the CB sells government bonds.

The Fed’s Tools of Monetary Control Reserve Requirements The CB also influences the money supply with reserve requirements. Reserve requirements are regulations on the minimum amount of reserves that banks must hold against deposits.

The Fed’s Tools of Monetary Control Changing the Reserve Requirement The reserve requirement is the amount (%) of a bank’s total reserves that may not be loaned out. Increasing the reserve requirement decreases the money supply. Decreasing the reserve requirement increases the money supply.

The Fed’s Tools of Monetary Control Changing the Discount Rate The discount rate is the interest rate the CB charges banks for loans. Increasing the discount rate decreases the money supply. Decreasing the discount rate increases the money supply.

Problems in Controlling the Money Supply The CB’s control of the money supply is not precise. The CB must wrestle with two problems that arise due to fractional-reserve banking. The CB does not control the amount of money that households choose to hold as deposits in banks. The CB does not control the amount of money that bankers choose to lend.

Measuring the Cost of Living Inflation refers to a situation in which the economy’s overall price level is rising. The inflation rate is the percentage change in the price level from the previous period.

THE CONSUMER PRICE INDEX The consumer price index (CPI) is a measure of the overall cost of the goods and services bought by a typical consumer. The BFS reports the Swiss CPI each month. It is used to monitor changes in the cost of living over time.

How the Consumer Price Index Is Calculated Fix the Basket: Determine what prices are most important to the typical consumer. The BFS identifies a market basket of goods and services the typical consumer buys and sets the respective weights based upon a consumer survey.

How the Consumer Price Index Is Calculated Find the Prices: Find the prices of each of the goods and services in the basket for each point in time. Compute the Basket’s Cost: Use the data on prices to calculate the cost of the basket of goods and services at different times. Choose a Base Year : Designate one year as the base year, making it the benchmark against which other years are compared.

How the Consumer Price Index Is Calculated Compute the Index: Compute the index by dividing the price of the basket in one year by the price in the base year and multiplying by 100. Compute the inflation rate: The inflation rate is the percentage change in the price index from the preceding period.

How the Consumer Price Index Is Calculated The Inflation Rate The inflation rate is calculated as follows:

How the Consumer Price Index Is Calculated Calculating the Consumer Price Index and the Inflation Rate: Base Year is 2002. Basket of goods in 2002 costs CHF 1,200. The same basket in 2004 costs CHF 1,236. CPI = (CHF 1,236/CHF 1,200)  100 = 103. Prices increased 3 percent between 2002 and 2004.

FYI: What’s in the CPI’s Basket? other goods food, beverages, tobacco 13% 14% Recreation 4% clothing and shoes 10% Transportation and communication 12% 26% Housing and Energy 16% 5% Health Furniture and household goods source: BfS

FYI: Prices of the different goods in the basket cigarettes 160 140 heating oil cinema 120 CPI 100 Milk personal computers Bread 80 60 TV and Video devices 40 20 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 source: BfS

Problems in Measuring the Cost of Living The CPI is an accurate measure of the selected goods that make up the typical bundle, but it is not a perfect measure of the cost of living. Substitution bias Introduction of new goods Unmeasured quality changes

Problems in Measuring the Cost of Living Substitution Bias The basket does not change to reflect consumer reaction to changes in relative prices. Consumers substitute toward goods that have become relatively less expensive. The index overstates the increase in cost of living by not considering consumer substitution.

Problems in Measuring the Cost of Living Introduction of New Goods The basket does not reflect the change in purchasing power brought on by the introduction of new products. New products result in greater variety, which in turn makes each dollar more valuable. Consumers need fewer dollars to maintain any given standard of living.

Problems in Measuring the Cost of Living Unmeasured Quality Changes If the quality of a good rises from one year to the next, the value of a dollar rises, even if the price of the good stays the same. If the quality of a good falls from one year to the next, the value of a dollar falls, even if the price of the good stays the same. The BLS tries to adjust the price for constant quality, but such differences are hard to measure.

Problems in Measuring the Cost of Living The substitution bias, introduction of new goods, and unmeasured quality changes cause the CPI to overstate the true cost of living. The issue is important because many government programs use the CPI to adjust for changes in the overall level of prices. The CPI overstates inflation by about 1 percentage point per year.

Real and Nominal Interest Rates Interest represents a payment in the future for a transfer of money in the past. The nominal interest rate is the interest rate usually reported and not corrected for inflation. It is the interest rate that a bank pays. The real interest rate is the nominal interest rate that is corrected for the effects of inflation.

Real and Nominal Interest Rates You borrowed CHF 1,000 for one year. Nominal interest rate was 15%. During the year inflation was 10%. Real interest rate = Nominal interest rate – Inflation = 15% - 10% = 5%

Figure 3 Real and Nominal Interest Rates (USA) (percent per year) 15 10 Nominal interest rate 5 Real interest rate –5 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

THE CLASSICAL THEORY OF INFLATION Inflation is an increase in the overall level of prices. Hyperinflation is an extraordinarily high rate of inflation.

THE CLASSICAL THEORY OF INFLATION Inflation: Historical Aspects Over the past 60 years, prices have risen on average about 5 percent per year in the U.S. Deflation, meaning decreasing average prices, occurred in the U.S. in the nineteenth century. Hyperinflation refers to high rates of inflation such as Germany experienced in the 1920s. In the 1970s prices rose by 7 percent per year. During the 1990s, prices rose at an average rate of 2 percent per year.

THE CLASSICAL THEORY OF INFLATION The quantity theory of money is used to explain the long-run determinants of the price level and the inflation rate. Inflation is an economy-wide phenomenon that concerns the value of the economy’s medium of exchange. When the overall price level rises, the value of money falls.

Money Supply, Money Demand, and Monetary Equilibrium The money supply is a policy variable that is controlled by the CB. Through instruments such as open-market operations, the CB directly controls the quantity of money supplied. Money demand has several determinants, including interest rates and the average level of prices in the economy. Bullet 2: Mankiw has removed the word, “directly”

Money Supply, Money Demand, and Monetary Equilibrium People hold money because it is the medium of exchange. The amount of money people choose to hold depends on the prices of goods and services. In the long run, the overall level of prices adjusts to the level at which the demand for money equals the supply.

Figure 1 Money Supply, Money Demand, and the Equilibrium Price Level Value of Price Money, Quantity fixed by the CB Money supply 1 / P Level, P (High) 1 Money demand 1 (Low) 3 / 1.33 4 A 1 / 2 2 Equilibrium value of money Equilibrium price level 1 / 4 4 (Low) (High) Quantity of Money

Figure 2 The Effects of Monetary Injection Value of Price Money, M1 MS1 M2 MS2 1 / P Level, P (High) 1 Money demand 1 (Low) 1. An increase in the money supply . . . 3 / 1.33 4 2. . . . decreases the value of mone y . . . 3. . . . and increases the price level. A 1 / 2 2 B 1 / 4 4 (Low) (High) Quantity of Money

THE CLASSICAL THEORY OF INFLATION The Quantity Theory of Money How the price level is determined and why it might change over time is called the quantity theory of money. The quantity of money available in the economy determines the value of money. The primary cause of inflation is the growth in the quantity of money.

The Classical Dichotomy and Monetary Neutrality Nominal variables are variables measured in monetary units. Real variables are variables measured in physical units.

The Classical Dichotomy and Monetary Neutrality According to Hume and others, real economic variables do not change with changes in the money supply. According to the classical dichotomy, different forces influence real and nominal variables. Changes in the money supply affect nominal variables but not real variables. The irrelevance of monetary changes for real variables is called monetary neutrality.

Velocity and the Quantity Equation The velocity of money refers to the speed at which the typical dollar bill travels around the economy from wallet to wallet. V = (P  Y)/M Where: V = velocity P = the price level Y = the quantity of output M = the quantity of money

Velocity and the Quantity Equation Rewriting the equation gives the quantity equation: M  V = P  Y The quantity equation relates the quantity of money (M) to the nominal value of output (P  Y).

Velocity and the Quantity Equation The quantity equation shows that an increase in the quantity of money in an economy must be reflected in one of three other variables: the price level must rise, the quantity of output must rise, or the velocity of money must fall.

International data on inflation and money growth

U.S. data on inflation and money growth

Velocity and the Quantity Equation The Equilibrium Price Level, Inflation Rate, and the Quantity Theory of Money The velocity of money is relatively stable over time. When the SNB changes the quantity of money, it causes proportionate changes in the nominal value of output (P  Y). Because money is neutral, money does not affect output.

CASE STUDY: Money and Prices during Four Hyperinflations Hyperinflation is inflation that exceeds 50 percent per month. Hyperinflation occurs in some countries because the government prints too much money to pay for its spending. Align text for second bullet.

Figure 4 Money and Prices During Four Hyperinflations (a) Austria (b) Hungary Index Index (Jan. 1921 = 100) (July 1921 = 100) 100,000 100,000 Price level Price level 10,000 10,000 Money supply Money supply 1,000 1,000 100 100 1921 1922 1923 1924 1925 1921 1922 1923 1924 1925 Copyright © 2004 South-Western

Figure 4 Money and Prices During Four Hyperinflations (c) Germany (d) Poland Index Index (Jan. 1921 = 100) (Jan. 1921 = 100) 100,000,000,000,000 10,000,000 Price level 1,000,000,000,000 1,000,000 Price level 10,000,000,000 Money supply 100,000 Money supply 100,000,000 1,000,000 10,000 10,000 1,000 100 1 100 1921 1922 1923 1924 1925 1921 1922 1923 1924 1925 Copyright © 2004 South-Western

The Inflation Tax When the government raises revenue by printing money, it is said to levy an inflation tax. An inflation tax is like a tax on everyone who holds money. The inflation ends when the government institutes fiscal reforms such as cuts in government spending.

The real interest rate stays the same. The Fisher Effect The Fisher effect refers to a one-to-one adjustment of the nominal interest rate to the inflation rate. According to the Fisher effect, when the rate of inflation rises, the nominal interest rate rises by the same amount. The real interest rate stays the same. The equation of the fisher effect must appear here or on a new next slide: “Nominal interest rate = real interest rate + inflation rate”

Figure 5 The Nominal Interest Rate and the Inflation Rate Percent (per year) 15 12 Nominal interest rate 9 6 Inflation 3 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 Copyright © 2004 South-Western

Inflation and nominal interest rates across countries

THE COSTS OF INFLATION A Fall in Purchasing Power? Inflation does not in itself reduce people’s real purchasing power.

THE COSTS OF INFLATION Shoeleather costs Menu costs Relative price variability Tax distortions Confusion and inconvenience Arbitrary redistribution of wealth

Shoeleather Costs Shoeleather costs are the resources wasted when inflation encourages people to reduce their money holdings. Inflation reduces the real value of money, so people have an incentive to minimize their cash holdings.

Shoeleather Costs Less cash requires more frequent trips to the bank to withdraw money from interest-bearing accounts. The actual cost of reducing your money holdings is the time and convenience you must sacrifice to keep less money on hand. Also, extra trips to the bank take time away from productive activities.

Menu Costs Menu costs are the costs of adjusting prices. During inflationary times, it is necessary to update price lists and other posted prices. This is a resource-consuming process that takes away from other productive activities.

Relative-Price Variability and the Misallocation of Resources Inflation distorts relative prices. Consumer decisions are distorted, and markets are less able to allocate resources to their best use.

Inflation-Induced Tax Distortion Inflation exaggerates the size of capital gains and increases the tax burden on this type of income. With progressive taxation, capital gains are taxed more heavily.

Inflation-Induced Tax Distortion The income tax treats the nominal interest earned on savings as income, even though part of the nominal interest rate merely compensates for inflation. The after-tax real interest rate falls, making saving less attractive.

Table 1 How Inflation Raises the Tax Burden on Saving Copyright©2004 South-Western

Confusion and Inconvenience When the CB increases the money supply and creates inflation, it erodes the real value of the unit of account. Inflation causes dollars at different times to have different real values. Therefore, with rising prices, it is more difficult to compare real revenues, costs, and profits over time.

A Special Cost of Unexpected Inflation: Arbitrary Redistribution of Wealth Unexpected inflation redistributes wealth among the population in a way that has nothing to do with either merit or need. These redistributions occur because many loans in the economy are specified in terms of the unit of account—money.

Summary The term money refers to assets that people regularly use to buy goods and services. Money serves three functions in an economy: as a medium of exchange, a unit of account, and a store of value. Commodity money is money that has intrinsic value. Fiat money is money without intrinsic value.

Summary The central bank regulates the monetary system. It controls the money supply through open-market operations or by changing reserve requirements or the discount rate.

Summary When banks loan out their deposits, they increase the quantity of money in the economy. Because the CB cannot control the amount bankers choose to lend or the amount households choose to deposit in banks, the CB’s control of the money supply is imperfect.

Summary The consumer price index shows the cost of a basket of goods and services relative to the cost of the same basket in the base year. The index is used to measure the overall level of prices in the economy. The percentage change in the CPI measures the inflation rate.

Summary The consumer price index is an imperfect measure of the cost of living for the following three reasons: substitution bias, the introduction of new goods, and unmeasured changes in quality. Because of measurement problems, the CPI overstates annual inflation by about 1 percentage point.

Summary Dollar figures from different points in time do not represent a valid comparison of purchasing power. The real interest rate equals the nominal interest rate minus the rate of inflation.

Summary The overall level of prices in an economy adjusts to bring money supply and money demand into balance. When the central bank increases the supply of money, it causes the price level to rise. Persistent growth in the quantity of money supplied leads to continuing inflation.

Summary The principle of money neutrality asserts that changes in the quantity of money influence nominal variables but not real variables. A government can pay for its spending simply by printing more money. This can result in an “inflation tax” and hyperinflation.

Summary According to the Fisher effect, when the inflation rate rises, the nominal interest rate rises by the same amount, and the real interest rate stays the same. Many people think that inflation makes them poorer because it raises the cost of what they buy. This view is a fallacy because inflation also raises nominal incomes.

Summary Economists have identified six costs of inflation: Shoeleather costs Menu costs Increased variability of relative prices Unintended tax liability changes Confusion and inconvenience Arbitrary redistributions of wealth