Economic Development Research Group, Inc. Using Public and Private Data Sources to Assess Supply Chain Implications of Transportation Systems Chandler Duncan Derek Cutler Economic Development Research Group, Inc. 17 May 2017

Background In 2011 ASCE Asked the Question “What happens to our global competitiveness when US transportation conditions deteriorate? TIGER and FAST Lane Grants have invited models to demonstrate national significance and economic role of transportation infrastructure Today’s policy environment re-arranges the pieces on the board by introducing policy questions that change many of the assumptions about what transportation systems do and why.

Models for Uncertain Times All Planning Models involve Economic Forecasts Forecasts have typically been static in assumptions about global economy Focus has been on generation, distribution, assignment and mode-split methods Scenarios have held economic conditions constant Enabling isolation of effects of particular infrastructure changes Created stable modeling environment for travel models to “grow up” What has changed? Economic Models now Can Account for Uncertainty in New ways The benefits and ROI of projects depends heavily on how many users there will be No longer simply a question of “traffic-worthiness” Policy Makers ask harder economic questions: What if there are major changes in trans-border trade agreements? What if fewer migrant workers are residing in my region or state? How can I plan around forecasts when so many things could change?

What if it happened…. A trade deal has been re-negotiated such that Mexico now buys its grain from South America instead of the United States The Governor, Secretary, Board of Transportation, MPO board, Stakeholders want to know…. How much will this affect our traffic forecasts? Will this change needs for highway improvements we currently have planned? Will this change our investment priorities?

The Affected Transportation Market Where in will this change in commodity markets be most experienced? What states or regions will have enough impact to affect transportation needs? Source: EDR Group Analysis using Wiser Trade, FAF and TREDPLAN

Key Producers of Exports, and Top Ports of Exit What major freight facilities or gateways will the most affected by changes in how and where this commodity is traded? Source: EDR Group Analysis using Wiser Trade, FAF and TREDPLAN

Who Else is Buying US Grains? Foreign Destination of US Grain Exports Country Kilotons Japan 17,907 Mexico 17,344 China 11,260 Republic of Korea 6,747 Remainder of South America 5,825 Colombia 5,571 Remainder of South-Eastern Asia 5,488 Remainder of Central America 5,289 Northern Africa 4,634 Canada 2,945 Where will the Grain go Now? 10% Goes to other domestic US Markets 70% goes to Asia 20% is not produced (other commodities produced instead) Source: EDR Group Analysis using Wiser Trade, FAF and TREDPLAN

Shipping to Asia Vs. Shipping to Mexico Source: EDR Group Analysis using Wiser Trade, FAF and TREDPLAN

From Mexico-serving Ports to Asia-serving Ports Source: EDR Group Analysis using Wiser Trade, FAF and TREDPLAN

Affected Highway Networks Source: EDR Group Analysis using Wiser Trade, FAF and TREDPLAN

Where Traffic Volumes will Change Source: EDR Group Analysis using Wiser Trade, FAF and TREDPLAN

Re-Assignment and Congestion Less reliance on congested I-35 in Texas Significantly higher dependence on access to Seattle and Congested California Ports Texas Congested Ports still utilized Source: EDR Group Analysis using Wiser Trade, FAF and TREDPLAN

Practical Application of Economic Modeling Passenger Trip Gen Passenger Mode Choice Distribution Assignment Truck Trip Gen TREDPLAN: Economic & Trade Scenario Variablity Re-Allocation to TAZ System Net New Jobs & Housing TREDIS: Regional Economic Benefits & Impacts Loaded Networks & Congested Skims (Base Vs. Build) Grant Application BCA’s Prioritization Scores Scenario Comparisons Moda/Corridor Dependency Analysis Long Range Plan/Investment Needs

Better Decisions Why Model this? Any transportation benefits or BCA’s reliant on travel time, VMT, reliability or congestion will change This will affect prioritization as well as overall investment needs Statewide and MPO models equipped with economic scenarios will be increasingly important.

Thank You! Chandler Duncan EDR Group (617) 338-6775 x 203 cduncan@edrgroup.com