Hypoxia Forecasts as a Tool for Chesapeake Bay Fisheries Marjorie Friedrichs1, Raleigh Hood2, Carl Friedrichs1, David Forrest1, Aaron Bever3 1Virginia Institute of Marine Science, College of William & Mary; marjy@vims.edu 2University of Maryland Center for Environmental Sciences, 3Anchor QEA Introduction Hypoxia Forecast Tool Forecast Model Details The Estuarine Hypoxia component of the U.S. Integrated Ocean Observing System Coastal and Ocean Modeling Testbed (COMT) is evaluating existing hydrodynamic and water quality models used, or likely to be used, for operations in the Chesapeake Bay. As a proof-of-concept, an implementation of the Regional Ocean Modeling System in the Chesapeake Bay (ChesROMS) was linked to oxygen removal by a constant respiration rate. The modeling system is presently being used to produce real-time nowcasts and short-term (3-day) hypoxia forecasts for the Chesapeake Bay, which are currently available on the Virginia Institute of Marine Science (VIMS) website. Workshops with citizen stakeholders have explored potential applications of the estuarine hypoxia nowcast/forecast products in support of recreational and commercial fishing. Interest in this product is high, particularly by recreational fishermen and charter boat captains, since reduced Catch Per Unit Effort in the Bay is clearly associated with regions of low dissolved oxygen. Regional Ocean Modeling System implementation with 20 vertical layers and a horizontal resolution of ~1 km Forcing includes winds and open boundary conditions provided by the NOAA and river input provided by the USGS Dissolved oxygen is removed via a constant respiration rate associated with organic matter decomposition. Dissolved oxygen at the surface and at the boundaries is set equal to the saturation value based on temperature and salinity. The VIMS Hypoxia Forecast Tool is available at: http://www.vims.edu/research/topics/dead_zones/forecasts/cbay/index.php Green  High bottom oxygen = Good bottom water = Bottom fish and crabs Orange  Moderate to low bottom oxygen = Poor bottom water = Fewer bottom fish and crabs Red  Very low bottom oxygen = Bad bottom water = No bottom fish or crabs Stakeholder Workshop 18 Attendees, including 10 fishers and 8 scientists/educators at VIMS in April 2016. Strong enthusiasm for hypoxia forecasts as a complementary tool along with other information sources. Several captains who attended are already using real-time observations for planning (e.g., water clarity, water temperature, wave heights from NOAA CBIBS) and/or short- term model forecasts (e.g., currents from CBOFS via NOAA Tides & Currents). 2-3 day forecasts are adequate because fishing sites of attendees are mainly chosen only a couple days in advance and sometimes only a few hours in advance. Motivation Low-oxygen “dead zones” occur in the summer in Chesapeake Bay, when nutrients from fertilizers, sewage and other sources feed algal blooms. When these algae die and sink, their decomposition take up oxygen from bottom waters. The resulting low oxygen (hypoxic) waters significantly impact the distribution and abundance of demersal fish in the Chesapeake Bay. Specifically, low Catch Per Unit Effort (CPUE) for coastal spawners (COAS) and all fish (FISH) occur in Chesapeake Bay areas where Dissolved Oxygen (DO) levels are < 3.5 mg/L (Fig. 1). VIMS ChesMMAP Survey data also shows much less fish biomass in hypoxic waters (Fig. 2.) Future Work Nowcast/forecast maps of DO computed from ChesROMS- ECB, a full estuarine biogeochemical model, will be incorporated into the hypoxia forecast tool. Maps showing the mean and standard deviation of the multiple models will be posted to provide a measure of uncertainty. Daily nowcast/forecast maps of temperature and salinity will be added to the site. Because end-users expressed an interest in water clarity, we will also assess model skill of suspended particulate matter and light attenuation. A workshop in 2017 will be conducted to obtain end-user input on the improved pseudo-operational model products. Fig. 1 From Buchheister et al. (2013) http://dx.doi.org/10.3354/meps10253 Blue  Increasing oxygen = Improving bottom water Red  Decreasing oxygen = Worsening bottom water Acknowledgments Funding was provided through the Coastal and Ocean Modeling Testbed (COMT) via the NOAA US-IOOS Program Office. Colleagues in VIMS Marine Advisory Services and the NOAA CB-NERR-VA program provided key assistance in organizing the Chesapeake fishers stakeholder workshop. Fig. 3. xxxxxx Fig. 2 From http://www.vims.edu/newsandevents/topstories/_images/hypoxia_july_2003_800.jpg