WP 5: Assessment of Transition Pathways to Regional Sustainability of Agriculture “to build on findings from WP3 to inform participatory identification of multiple future transition pathways to sustainable agriculture at regional level, typifying both pathways and regions identified through stakeholder scenario development exercises.” Participatory scenario development exercise. Identify pathways and visions, reflecting differentiation. Assess needs. Develop Handbook. 1 case-study area in each field research country. Months 17 to 34. Most teams have 7 man months for WP5 Outcomes: 1 book chapter, 1 final report, fact sheets, 1 Handbook September 2012 4rd FarmPath meeting

WP5 : Strengths and added value to Farm Path Regional Sustainability of Agriculture: from initiatives to the regional scale Transdisciplinarity: progressing to knowledge with the stakeholders, and even leading to empowerment Linking science to practice, also beyond the project: the Handbook as an outcome September 2012 4rd FarmPath meeting

WP5: scenarios, what can they bring us ? Figure 1 – Scenarios can help address uncertainty in complex systems. Source: Zurek and Heinrichs (2007) September 2012 4rd FarmPath meeting

WP5: scenarios, where can they bring us ? (Wright and Spers 2006; Tress and Tress 2003) where to go >> process focused in accordance with our conceptual framework greater empowerment (Darnhofer 2011; Vega-Leinert, Kleemann and O’Riordan 2009) Figure 2 – Different approaches in studies exploring the future. Source: Ramos (2008) September 2012 4rd FarmPath meeting

WP5: the questions to be addressed We want to * identify a set of pathways and visions for sustainable agriculture, which reflect both regional differences and social and technological innovation needs to attaining these visions * assess how possible institutional arrangements, support measures and socio-technical networks amongst actors within the farming community, policy, technology and wider society can lead to increased regional sustainability of agriculture * involve stakeholders in this discussion and identification, leading to a higher level of awareness on possible transition pathways for their region and join references September 2012 4rd FarmPath meeting

WP5: the questions to be addressed What are the wishable futures for agriculture in the region ? >> In which direction you would like to go >> Which scenarios are more sustainable *we deal with agriculture and other land management activities: activities and people managing the land What are the required pathways ? >> why has the scenario not happened yet ? >> what is required in order for it to happen ? (what policies, institutional arrangements, governance mechanisms, etc. could be facilitators) >> what can you get involved and support this pathway ? September 2012 4rd FarmPath meeting

WP5: temporal and spatial scale (Southern et al 2011) The time frame: what we can relate to, what can capture the stakeholders involvement: between 10 and 15 years and also behind the next European policy framework program >> scenario 2025 The spatial frame: the regional sustainability of agriculture above local case studies but still possible to grasp for the involved well acknowledged units + explicit shared drivers for transition >> in between Nuts 3 and LAU 1 (group of LAU 1; in DE, NUTs 2; Natura 2000 site; peri-urban domain; planning units) September 2012 4rd FarmPath meeting

WP5: a focus group based approach (Krueger 1998; Southern, Lovett, O’Riordan and Watkinson 2011) The groups: Official interests: NGOs, farmers associations, business associations, unions,... Run the land: farmers, land owners, hobby and lifestyle farmers, managers of protected areas,... Young farmers Land users: those who benefit from the management of the land – end users, recreationists, educational people, residential and consumer organizations, ... >> careful selection so as to secure effective participation September 2012 4rd FarmPath meeting

WP5: a focus group based approach (Krueger 1998; Southern, Lovett, O’Riordan and Watkinson 2011) The steps Small interviews / meetings of max 3 people: building trust, and engagement in the process listen to stakeholders concerns now and for future Identification of the relevant criteria for identifying trends towards the regional sustainability of agriculture: work with the NSPG criteria to be linked to indicators, based on existing list September 2012 4rd FarmPath meeting

WP5: a focus group based approach The steps 3) Focus groups: 4 meetings of up to 8 people from each of the stakeholder groups external facilitator identify and describe whishable scenarios come out with 2 agreed upon scenarios 4) From the 8 final scenarios, select 3 most in accordance to the sustainability criteria >> if possible, work with NSPG apply the predefined indicators (qualitative assessment) the new scenarios can be a merge of some of the first build up short narratives the selection is validated by the focus groups participants, through written information and small meetings September 2012 4rd FarmPath meeting

WP5: a focus group based approach The steps 5) One large workshop at the end: supporting governance and identifying pathways preparatory documents sent before: characteristics of the region, foreseen overall changes, integration of WP3 findings, and narratives on the scenarios a whole afternoon and all stakeholders mixed together the three scenarios are presented supporting tools may be used (e.g. visualization) definition of transition pathways: constrains and supports identification of possible involvement >> reporting on national process and findings + join report + handbook September 2012 4rd FarmPath meeting

WP5: what can be gained from WP3 informing the discussions – in NSPG and in final workshop: a grounded assessment of what is relevant today for the regional sustainability of agriculture, as it has emerged from the initiatives + similarities across Europe; an identification of what is common x what depends on regional contexts, and thus need a differentiated approach; a reflection on the potentialities and limitations of the existing indicators and approaches for their measurement; >> main assets and fragilities of each region >> institutional arrangements >> what depends on the different levels of governance September 2012 4rd FarmPath meeting

WP5: the Handbook >> “development of a handbook for assessment of agricultural sustainability at regional level, and identification of possible future transition pathways” the objective is to reach diverse institutions and inform about our results >> what is needed to make transition pathways happen >> transform findings into user friendly information for people taking decisions on agriculture and land management, at various scales for decision makers at regional, national and European a 25-30 pages booklet, informative content with simple presentation; in English + may be translated into national languages September 2012 4rd FarmPath meeting

WP5: the Handbook 1) >> multiple transitions require multiple response capacity from the regime >> sustainability requires stakeholder involvement reflecting on the scenario exercise 2) >> acknowledging differentiation: therefore the regional spreading typology of regions and agricultures mapping diversity 3) >> suggesting pathways what could support transition in one sense, in the different types of regions: institutional arrangements, policy design, local drivers September 2012 4rd FarmPath meeting