The United States and the EU’s Eastern Neighborhood Michael Baun Valdosta State University

The EU’s Eastern neighborhood

EU Eastern Policy European Neighborhood Policy (ENP) 2004 “Eastern Partnership” – May 7 Prague summit -- 6 Eastern neighbors, including Belarus? Goals: stability, security, democracy, substitute for EU enlargement? reduce Russian influence

US interests in Eastern neighborhood 1) Strategic: -- limit Russian influence in former USSR -- Southern Caucasus -- independent Europe -- cooperative relations with Russia

US interests in Eastern neighborhood (II) 2) security: -- resolve “frozen conflicts” (Transnistria Abkhazia and South Ossetia, Nagorno-Karabakh) -- eliminate safe havens for terrorism and illegal activity 3) democracy

US policy towards Eastern neighborhood Clinton years (1992-2000): -- support for economic and political reform in Russia (Yeltsin) -- independence of former Soviet states -- NATO enlargement (1999) and “Partnership for Peace” (1994) -- interest in Southern Caucasus as energy corridor: Baku-Tblisi-Ceyhan (BTC) oil pipeline

US policy towards Eastern neighborhood Bush years (2000-2008): -- democracy promotion and Western integration of former Soviet states (“color revolutions”) --NATO membership for Ukraine and Georgia -- increased presence in S. Caucasus after 9/11; especially Georgia, Azerbaijan (“frontline in global war on terror”)

Russian pushback after 2004 Russia-Ukraine gas disputes (2006 and 2009) economic pressure on Georgia (2006) involvement in domestic politics independence for separatist areas in response to international recognition of Kosovo? Russia-Georgia war (August 2008); recognition of independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia growing tensions over Russian naval base in Crimea – Ukraine next?

Belarus “selective engagement” (1996) cooperation with EU from 2006 – travel restrictions, financial sanctions on individuals; support pro-democracy forces partial lifting of sanctions (Aug. 2008) and support for EU effort to reengage Belarus

Ukraine > $3 billion US aid since 1991 strong support for Orange Revolution government support for Ukraine’s NATO membership (MAP) push for EU membership perspective

Moldova support for economic and political reform Transnistria: US participation in “5+2” negotiations (since 2005, as observer) support for EU efforts to integrate Moldova via ENP and Eastern Partnership

Georgia > $2 billion US aid since 1991 M. Saakashvili military and security assistance support for Georgia’s NATO ambitions (MAP) support for Georgia’s sovereignty and territorial integrity (Abkhazia, South Ossetia)

Armenia ~$2 billion US aid since 1991 (largest per capita of any CIS state) – powerful Armenian lobby in US humanitarian aid (1988 earthquake) support for economic and political reform

Azerbaijan increased strategic importance after 9/11 increased US economic assistance after 2001 muted support for democracy Nagorno-Karabakh: US co-chairs OSCE “Minsk Group”

Obama policy towards Eastern neighborhood General principles: “new realism” (geography, strategic priorities) no Russian “sphere of influence” -- defend principle of NATO membership for Ukraine and Georgia; don’t actively promote it “with Russia, not against it” -- avoid zero-sum competition with Russia in former Soviet space

Obama policy towards Eastern neighborhood (II) General principles (cont.): continued support for democracy, but toned-down rhetoric support EU efforts to integrate Eastern neighbors and greater EU role in Southern Caucasus do not aggravate or exploit internal EU divisions

US-EU cooperation in Eastern neighborhood Three scenarios: 1) active cooperation/close coordination -- mutually reinforcing, synergistic, maximal impact and effectiveness 2) separate policies/no coordination -- occasional disagreements, inefficient 3) separate and possibly competing policies -- transatlantic tension and internal EU divisions; greater opportunities for Russia to “divide and conquer”