Latam Chartbook BOULDER STRATEGIES MARCH 2017 Iea usp presentation

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Presentation transcript:

Latam Chartbook BOULDER STRATEGIES MARCH 2017 Iea usp presentation Marcelo Carvalho @MCarvalhoEcon

GLOBAL MONETARY POLICY Fed Funds target rate and 2yr Treasury bond yields (%, a.r.) Source: ECB, FED, BoJ, Macrobond, BNP Paribas Global monetary policy: still easy

GLOBAL: COMMODITY PRICES IMF non-fuel commodities price index (2005=100) Source: IMF, Macrobond, BNP Paribas. Dotted lines show IMF forecasts. Looking better

LATAM: COMMODITIES AS A SHARE OF LATAM EXPORTS (%) Source: IBGE, DANE, INEGI, BCRA, INE. Ratios based on 2013 data. Export exposure to commodities varies across the region

LATAM: REAL GDP GROWTH PERFORMANCE (%, y/y) Source: IMF, BNP Paribas; *BNP Paribas Market Economics forecasts Growth is down from the golden days of the commodity price boom, but should recover

LATAM: DOING BUSINESS RANKING CORRELATES WITH INCOME BIGGER NUMBERS MEAN WORSE AT DOING BUSINESS RANK Source: World Bank, BNP Paribas; The good: Chile, Mexico, Peru, Colombia. The bad: Brazil, Argentina. The ugly: Venezuela.

Latam: Quality of education and infrastructure HIGHER MEANS BETTER *Students’ outcomes on mathematics test in the latest Programme for International Assessment (Pisa). The scales reflect the percentile ranking. Source: OECD, World Economic Forum, BNP Paribas. Latam countries need to improve their human capital and physical infrastructure