The Decline of George W. Bush’s Approval Rating Richard M. Skinner Political Science 160 (all data is from the Gallup Poll)

A Story of Decline…

… To Historic Lows … George W. Bush’s last approval rating of 34% placed him in the company of: Richard Nixon during the Watergate scandal. Harry Truman during the Korean War. Jimmy Carter during 1979-80, a time of gasoline shortages, double-digit inflation, and the Iran hostage crisis.

… Interrupted By Rallies George W. Bush experienced four “rallies” during his administration: After the 9/11 attacks, his approval rating rose from 51% to 90% within two weeks. After the 3/03 invasion of Iraq, his rating rose from 58% to 71%. After the 12/03 capture of Saddam Hussein, his rating rose from 56% to 63%. After the 6/06 killing of Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, his rating rose from 36% to 40%.

A Polarizing President …

… With a Loyal Base … For most of his first term, George W. Bush enjoyed the approval of 90% or more of Republicans – support as high as that enjoyed by Presidents Reagan and Eisenhower. His support among Republicans declined during his second term to about 60% in the fall of 2008. He suffered particularly among Republicans during the spring of ’06 and again during the summer of ‘07, when conservatives attacked his immigration policies.

… But an Angry Opposition … During his early months in office, Bush enjoyed the support of only 1/3 of Democrats – reflecting the bitterness of the 2000 election. After 9/11, his support among Democrats rose from 27% to 84%. This support dropped rapidly in 2002 and 2003, falling to 12% in February ’04. His support never recovered, and often fell into single digits during his second term.

… And an Alienated Center Bush’s support was relatively low among Independents during ‘01, until 9/11 raised it from 44% to 89%. His popularity among Independents declined in ‘02 and ‘03 much as it did among Democrats, falling below 50% during ‘04. Independent support continued to drop rapidly during ‘05 – falling from 48% after the ’04 election to 31% at the end of the year. By the end, fewer than 1 in 5 Independents approved of Bush’s performance.

The “Approval Gap” George W. Bush’s support among Republicans 55 his support among Democrats 5 ---- 50 The Gallup Poll, October 3-5, 2008

Barack Obama Obama experienced a honeymoon in his first months in office, with his approval rating remaining above 60 percent (but below 70) from January through April 2009. His popularity declined during the summer of 2009, with his approval falling into the 50s, before stabilizing around 50 percent in the fall. His popularity declined again in the summer of 2010 to about 46%. In January and February 2011, it rebounded to around 48%.

Still a Polarized Nation Obama has proved be as polarizing as George W. Bush. An average of Gallup Polls taken in February 14-20, 2011 showed: 83% approval among Democrats 43% among Independents 15% among Republicans

Two Summers of Decline

The “Approval Gap” Continues