“Interesting Times” Global Economy in 2017 Wisconsin ICE Chris Kuehl Managing Director – Armada Corporate Intelligence Economic Analyst – FMA, NACM

How Americans See Europe

How Europeans See America

Trump’s Foreign Policy (so far) America First Assertion of unfair trade practices, currency manipulation etc. Desire for more burden sharing – Nato, IMF etc. Desire to discourage imports and promote exports Quasi-isolationist Not supportive of institutions such as WTO Stepped up defense spending Aggressive tactics as far as Terrorism is concerned Allies and Enemies Deep distrust of China and Europe in general Ambivalent towards emerging market states Potential rapprochement with Russia

Global Growth

Regional Growth Rates

We Are BIG and that can be an Issue

Major European Issues Brexit, Frexit, Nexit, Grexit Geert Wilders fell just short but still a factor Marine Le Pen has half of Europe terrified What is up with Greece, Spain, Italy, Portugal these days Relations with the US Eurozone economies starting to recover a little Immigration still vexes the whole continent Middle East and North Africa Eastern Europe Looming Economic Issues Aging population – labor shortage Productivity and role of government National Defense

PMI Data for Europe

Looking Up

Brexit Still a Threat

EU and China

Public Debt

Competitiveness

Forgotten Europe?

Hmmmm.

Asian Economic Issues How to perk up the Chinese economy and what will the US relationship look like in the years to come. Will Japan be able to sustain the trade based growth of late? What happens to the yen? Does South Korea shake off this latest political mess? What is anyone going to do about North Korea? Will the real Narendra Modi please stand up? What does the Philippines do with Duterte? Can Australia prosper if China isn’t? What does the rest of Southeast Asia look like? Vietnam Indonesia Malaysia

India Rising

Asian Forecasts

Still Rapid Progress

Status Projected for 2020

Digging Out of a Hole

Latin American Issues Brazil in recession with a side of political crisis Argentina back in the good graces of the financial community Leftist disasters continue in Venezuela, Bolivia and Ecuador Central American instability expands and related to US immigration Mexico deeply worried Trade barriers and tariffs The wall Drug war and expanded crisis Succession planning

Latin Progress

Growth Forecasts

Growth Trends Look Bleak for Mexico

This is Where it all Started

Growth and Politics

Middle Eastern Economic Issues Starts and ends with oil prices Cost of dealing with terror and conflicts in the region Syria Yemen Libya Iraq ISIS and related groups Egypt reemergent Israeli impact Future of Saudi Arabia Iran – moderates and hardliners

Confidence Levels

Terrorism Threats

African Economic Issues Large and young population Economic success stories Rwanda Botswana Ghana Economic disasters DRC Sub-Saharan states Should be better than they are Nigeria South Africa Kenya

Who are the Dominant Players?

Rise of the Middle Income

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