Donald Trump’s Foreign Policy: Populist or Conventional? Matthew Kroenig Professor of Foreign Service and Government at Georgetown University and Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council Presented at Giornate 2017 June 17, 2017

Question and Answer Question: Is Donald Trump a populist foreign policy president? Answer: It is too early for a definitive assessment. There are elements of populism. But, Trump’s foreign policy is much more conventional than most expected.

Outline The Inheritance Trump’s Team Policy Conclusion “America First” Defense Europe Middle East Asia The exceptions? Trade and immigration Conclusion

The Inheritance Trump inherited a world in disarray. This is perhaps the most difficult international security environment since the height of the Cold War. There is significant room for improvement.

2) Trump’s Team Trump has assembled a highly-capable foreign policy cabinet. Sub-cabinet posts being filled by my friends and colleagues; traditional Republican foreign policy hands. Appointments to key posts are too slow. Few from outside the mainstream and they seem to have waning influence.

3) Policy A) “America First” Not isolationist: Early engagement in Asia, Europe, and Middle East. Continuity with past: Obama “nation-building at home.” Early results on the economy and defense. Effort to rebalance international trade and alliance relationships.

3) Policy B) Defense Trump promised “largest military buildup in history.” Trump is delegating authority for warfighting to military officers. Trump promised a nuclear arsenal “at the top of the pack.”

3) Policy C) Europe Pursue better relations with Russia, like Bush and Obama. Encourage NATO allies to increase defense spending. To date, actual policies are tough on Putin and pro-NATO.

3) Policy D) Middle East Syria strikes enforced “redline” on chemical weapons use and improved U.S. credibility. Unshackle military to defeat ISIS. Effort to reassure traditional partners in the region needed after the Iran nuclear deal. Qatar crisis is a challenge, but outcome could be beneficial for global stability.

3) Policy E) Asia North Korea nuclear and missile program is foremost priority. Tactical decision to work with China risks giving China a free hand. Allies in region initially reassured, now less certain.

3) Policy F) The Exceptions? Trade and Immigration Trump withdrew from the Trans-Pacific Partnership and has promised to renegotiate NAFTA and KORUS. But, there were real concerns about TPP, Trump administration remains open to future trade in Asia, and some updating of NAFTA and KORUS is necessary. Trump’s first act in office was “travel ban” which has been blocked by courts. Yesterday, Trump decided to continue Obama’s “Dream Act.”

6) Conclusions Much controversy, but Trump’s actual policies are quite conventional. Trump’s style is highly unconventional; this has costs and benefits. Former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger predicted that Trump presents a “historic opportunity” for the United States.