SENSIBLE LAND USE COALISION Hazel H Reinhardt January 25, 2017

WHY DEMOGRAPHICS One of the drivers of change Lends itself to long-term projections Age is a prime example

WHAT’S HAPPENING Population is changing From fast growth to slower growth From a young population to an old population From a homogeneous population to a diverse population From a population with a large middle income group to a population with smaller middle income group and larger “tails”

DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS Aging of the population Increasing racial/ethnic diversity Immigration Different fertility rates

DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS Socio-economic changes Geographic distribution Family/household composition Education/Income gap increasing Geographic distribution Concentration of population characteristics by geography

DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS Of the four trends, aging is changing the world as “we know it” Age is more than a number

WHY THE AGING POPULATION MATTERS Unprecedented Population has been young historically Pervasive A global phenomenon affecting every man, woman and child

WHY THE AGING POPULATION MATTERS Enduring We will not return to the young populations that our ancestors knew Profound Implications for many facets of human life

AGING Dimensions of aging Physical, including life expectancy Psychological Life stage Generation effect (cohort)

INDICATORS OF AGING Standard indicators of aging Median age Dependency ratios Percentages of selected characteristics

7-COUNTY TWIN CITIES REGION

PERCENTAGE OF 65+ 7-COUNTY TWIN CITIES REGION

MEDIAN AGE BY RACE/ETHNICITY MINNESOTA

TRENDS AMONG THE YOUNG Rise in median age of first marriage Rise in 25-34 year-olds living at home Stagnant number of births

MEDIAN AGE AT FIRST MARRIAGE UNITED STATES

LIVING AT HOME 25-34 YEAR-OLDS UNITED STATES Men Women 1967 9.1% 5.3% 2000 12.4% 7.6% 2010 15.1% 9.6% 2016 18.5% 11.6%

MINNESOTA BIRTHS STAGNANT

RACIAL/ETHNIC DIVERSITY Immigration Relationship to age Correlation with socio-economic indicators Future of current categories

INTERNATIONAL AND DOMESTIC MIGRATION Minnesota Beginning in 2002 domestic net migration has been negative but international net migration (immigration) has been positive Net losses to domestic migration concentrated in three age groups 18-24 year-olds 35-39 year-olds 60-69 year-olds

INTERNATIONAL AND DOMESTIC MIGRATION Minnesota and the Twin Cities Region dependent on international migration for growth

INTERNATIONAL AND DOMESTIC MIGRATION, MINNESOTA

SOCIO-ECONOMIC CHARACTERISTICS Family/household composition Levels of educational attainment Income Relationship of education, family composition and income

SHARE OF HOUSEHOLDS BY SIZE MINNESOTA

SHARE OF HOUSEHOLDS WITH CHILD(REN) UNDER 18 MINNESOTA

COLLEGE GRADUATES MINNESOTA Age 25+

INCOME The terms “middle income” and “middle class” often used interchangeably in terms of consumption But middle class connotes more than income, be it a college education, white-collar work, economic security, owning a home, or having certain social and political values Household income effected by household composition, education and martial status

MINNESOTA INCOME (in 2015 dollars)

INCOME BY COUNTY (in 2015 dollars)

MEDIAN HOUSEHOLD INCOME MINNESOTA (in 2014 dollars)

SHARE OF HOUSEHOLDS WITH INCOME BELOW $35,000 MINNESOTA

INCOME After more than four decades of being the nation’s economic majority, the American “middle class” is now matched in number by those in the economic tiers above and below it Source: Pew Research analysis based on the Current Population Survey, Annual Social and Economic Supplements

INCOME One sense, represents economic progress While share in lower- and upper-income grew, the share in the upper-income tier grew more

INCOME However, the nation’s aggregate household income has shifted from middle-income to upper-income households 49% upper income, up from 29% 43% middle income, down from 62% 9% lower income, down from 10%

RECENT RESEARCH Earnings of 30 year-olds compared to their parents earnings at age 30 90% in early 1970s 50% today Reasons are many, hard to reverse Educational attainment

GEOGRAPHIC DISTRIBUTION Twin Cities Metro Area Suburban Minneapolis and St. Paul only 23.4% of 7-county regional population Communities have different characteristics Most suburbs are aging

GEOGRAPHIC DISTRIBUTION 7-CountyTwin Cities Region 90% of Minnesota’s population increase 2010-2015

WHAT DO THESE DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES MEAN For land use, communities and real estate (housing)

WHAT DO THESE DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES MEAN Aging Really uncharted waters Slower economic growth Less moving (changing address) Aging in place

WHAT DO THESE DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES MEAN Aging Household size will decrease Housing More one-person households Less demand for single-family detached units

WHAT DO THESE DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES MEAN Land use Redevelopment of existing residential areas Challenge of who can afford what Exurbs

WHAT DO THESE DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES MEAN Housing for the less affluent Basically three tiers of households Top 25% of households are doing OK College graduates, married Middle 50% are not doing so well Bottom 25% not doing well at all

WHAT DO THESE DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES MEAN A more complex market environment More market niches Aging population will have profound effects 24% 65+ in 2030 (Twin Cities region) Affordability