Population and Economic Transitions for Colorado Growing Forward Population and Economic Transitions for Colorado Colorado Association of School Executives- 2017 Elizabeth Garner State Demography Office Colorado Department of Local Affairs Demography.dola.colorado.gov

Main Points Growing Forward Income Migration Aging Growing and slowing Ethnicity/race.

Big Picture - 2015-2016 Pop Change US – 323.1 million, + 2.2 million or .7% Colorado - 5,540,500 Ranked 7th fastest 1.7% - UT, NV, ID, FL, WA, OR 8th absolute growth 91,700 – TX, FL, CA, WA, AZ, NC, GA Range in Colorado +14,000 -50

Weld + 30,,600 since 2010 29 negative growth 10-13 X negative pop change 14-15 19 with negative pop change 13-14 12 negative natural increase 12-13 9 negative natural increase 13-14 23 negative net migration 13-14 30 negative net migration 12-13 Weld + 30,,600 since 2010

Percent Change in Birth Rate by Age 2009-15 Fertility rates declined during the recession – not unusual – historically has been a delay in childbearing resulting in similar completed fertility. Significant declines for younger females during the recession was unusual Likely means permanent lower fertility for younger females. What is yet to be known is what these young women do as they age and if we will see continued increases in older female fertility rates. At the moment – fertility rates are down. Birth Rates from Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment, 2016

19 with negative pop change 13-14 12 negative natural increase 12-13 9 negative natural increase 13-14 23 negative net migration 13-14 30 negative net migration 12-13

ACS 2014, Census Bureau The number turning 65 were: 2000 – 26,000 2010 - 44,000 2015 – 58,000 2025 – 72,000 2030 – 66,000 Deaths 2014 – 34,000 ACS 2014, Census Bureau

State Demography Office v2014

Counties in Green or Yellow have recovered all the jobs that were lost during the recession. Dark green = Strongest Recovery. Lack of economic diversity has caused nearly all of the counties in the western 1/3 of the state to lag in the recovery and remain between 5 and 10% or more below pre-recession peaks. 13 counties still 10% or more below pre-recession peak, 12 counties between 5-10% below, and 11 counties that are 0-5% below. Only 28 of the 64 counties have fully recovered. 18 – have more than 5% and half of those are above 10, and 10 have 0 to 3% more jobs. It is also worth noting that the pre-recession peaks for many Western slope counties were “frothy” and it is questionable if those employment levels were sustainable.

I M A Growing and Slowing E

Population changes as a result of three things – a birth, a death, or a mover. Those moved in minus those that moved out is net migration. As we look back – times with significant job growth, saw significant population growth. (1970s, 1990s) Natural resource bust, tech bust, great recession. Note that of 100,000 person increase last year as well as forecast for this year – only 60% of that change is due to migration – the remainder due to births. Natural Increase is projected to decline after 2028 as the population transitions from a young age distribution to a more average distribution causing an increase in the death rate. The number of births will continue to increase, a result of a larger population base from which they are born. The number of deaths also increases, but increases faster, given a larger population base and a larger share of older persons who are subject to higher mortality rates. Slow our overall population growth. In recent years births also slowed – consistent with slowing of births during recessions, also unique new trend – significant decreases in younger women’s fertility. Colorado’s economy was growing rapidly in 1970……

2040- 7.924 Change from 2010-2040 State – 2.8 mill Front Range – 2.4 mil Denver Metro – 1.4 NFR - 534K SFR - 390K WS - 342K CM - 61K SLV - 11K EP - 64K Non Front Range - 470

Median Home Value

I M A G Ethnicity/Race increasing

This makes it look like aging Hispanics may not be a big deal but between 2000 and 2010 Hispanic 65+ increased by 56% compared to the entire population which increased by 32% Forecast to increase by 97% Census Bureau

Source ACS 2014 1 yr PUMS

Source ACS 2014 1 yr

I M Age G E

We Are Aging – Fast! Currently very few people over the age 65. 6th lowest share of all states in US (13%) in 2015 Baby Boomers Born 1946 – 1964 1,360,000 Boomers in Colorado (25% of pop. in 2015) By 2030, Colorado’s population 65+ will be 77% larger than it was in 2015 growing from 719,000 to 1,270,000. (primarily from aging) Transition age distribution from “young” to more US average between 2015 and 2030. State Demography Office, Census Bureau

Growth in young adults due to migration Demographic Dividend AGE

Aging Issues Numbers Economic Driver - wealthier …. depends Impact on occupational mix Labor Force Housing Income – Downward Pressure Health Disabilities Transportation Public Finance – Downward Pressure

We are currently nearing the middle of a very unique decade in the history of the age distribution of Colorado’s population. This most significant event is the aging of the baby boomers – something most of the people in this room are uniquely familiar with due to the impacts their aging will have on the labor force, economic development, housing, transportation, health services and public finance just to name a few. We can watch as between 1990 and 2010, the baby boomers aged out of the 25 to 44 year old age group, while the share of persons age 45 to 64 increased as a result over the same time period. This current decade we see the share 45 to 64 drop as those same baby boomers age into the 65 and older age group and we see those dramatic increases in the blue line Expect age distribution to remain relatively stable after 2030. 1990-2010 2010-2030 2030+ Source: State Demography Office

Income M A G E

Household Income….its future is demographically challenged. Age distributions – “End of “Demographic Dividend” Occupational Mix – high and low service More race/ethnicity diverse especially at young end but achievement gap is growing as well. Household type and size – single and smaller. Youth un and under employment - Long term permanent impacts on earnings. State Demography Office

To Ponder in My Community Income Challenges – how could downward pressure impact our community/state? Migration – how much, where, and can we compete for the best and the brightest? Aging – we are getting old fast, is the state ready for the changes to the labor force, income, industrial mix, housing, etc. Growth – disparate across the state, what is causing it and what can be done? Ethnic/race diversity – increasing and aging into labor force. Educational attainment gap continues putting downward pressure on labor force and income.

Thank you State Demography Office Department of Local Affairs Elizabeth Garner Elizabeth.garner@state.co.us 303-864-7750 Demography.dola.colorado.gov

Slow, decline K-5 Slow, decline HS Slow, Decline MS

Average Taxable Expenditures and Colorado population in 2010, 2030 Average taxable expenditures also change with age, with 65+ making on average few taxable expenditures. This will impact per capita sales tax in Colorado. Below are examples of the potential impact using forecasts of households by age in Colorado. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Expenditure Survey (2009), State Demography Office

The Colorado “Not So” Paradox Is the educational attainment difference between Colorado natives and non-natives Colorado specific or does it span the US and is it reflective of the nature of migration? 1 vs. 3 – traditional 1 vs. 2 – high ed also leave CO 3 vs. 4 – better for CO 1 vs. 5 – better for CO 2 vs. 4 – equal 4 vs. 5 – No Paradox in Colorado

Why Review Historical Forecasts? Can reveal continuity or changes in demographic trends. Serve as basis for improvement in assumptions or methodologies. Inform us about the limitations of demographic projections and what we can reasonably expect from them. Evaluation of historical population projections: 1 – informative of period in which they were prepared, can reveal continuity or changes in demographic trends. 2 – serve as basis for improvement in assumptions or methodologies – our last major methodological change was proceeded by projections that did not performing well in the late 1980’s and early 1990’s. At that time we used historical net migration to forecast future net migration, as a result we switched to our current methodology 1 - identifying base industries within counties, looking at national forecasts for those base industries and what that should mean for the county In terms of evaluating our current methodology…. The 15 year forecasts provide most data points for current evaluation. 3 - inform us about the limitations of demographic projections and what we can reasonably expect from them. Currently in discussions with other demographers across the country about starting a national effort to quantify errors in historical population projections and elevate error into the discussion.

Uncertainty Most state & local population projections have a Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE) of 6-7% for 10 year projections and 11-15% for 20 years1.  Colorado State Demography Office MAPE 10 Year (1988-2005): 5.2% 15 Year (1988-2000): 9.9% 20 Year (1988, 92, 93, 95): 14.3% Migration most uncertain component. Dampening Forces: Housing Prices Bolstering Forces: Broadband outside Front R Survival rates Mortality levels most certain part of the model. Relatively little variations by region or over time. Fertility Very accurate, however, more variation by region. Migration Job forecasts, relative growth by region, and labor force participation rates are all subject to error. Consistent and within the context of national forecasts, expert review. 1"State and Local Population Projections" Smith, Tayman, and Swanson.