Energy in the Developing World: Perspectives from the Field Professor Catherine Wolfram April 2017

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The developing world accounts for most expected growth in energy and CO2 emissions http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/ieo/ 2016 Click on interactive Table Source: Energy Information Administration International Energy Outlook, 2016

Energy correlated with economic growth Source: World Bank, WDI

Previous projections underestimate energy demand in the developing world World Energy Outlook - New Policies Scenario of the World Energy Outlook broadly serves as the IEA baseline scenario. It takes account of broad policy commitments and plans that have been announced by countries, including national pledges to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions and plans to phase out fossil-energy subsidies, even if the measures to implement these commitments have yet to be identified or announced. - Current Policies Scenario assumes no changes in policies from the mid-point of the year of publication (previously called the Reference Scenario). Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2015

Previous projections underestimate energy demand in the developing world World Energy Outlook - New Policies Scenario of the World Energy Outlook broadly serves as the IEA baseline scenario. It takes account of broad policy commitments and plans that have been announced by countries, including national pledges to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions and plans to phase out fossil-energy subsidies, even if the measures to implement these commitments have yet to be identified or announced. - Current Policies Scenario assumes no changes in policies from the mid-point of the year of publication (previously called the Reference Scenario). Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2015

Development Angle

Randomized controlled trial (RCT) Communities are randomly divided into a treatment and a control group Compare changes in social and economic outcomes for both groups

Step 1: Distribute “subsidies” to households

Step 2: REA extends national grid to households

Step 3: Kenya Power installs prepaid meters

Many households are “under-grid”

Households want high wattage appliances

Very small impacts of electrification Picture of lightbulb or meter on woman’s hut. Very small impacts of electrification

Are we too focused on rural electrification? Most of the growth will come from commercial, industrial and existing on-grid households.

Energy in the developing world 1 We need to understand the drivers of energy demand in the developing world,

Energy in the developing world Develop both technological and policy solutions that work, and 2

Energy in the developing world 3 Gauge climate solutions based on impacts in China, India, and Sub-Saharan Africa.

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