Summer School 2013 By Baldur Thorhallsson

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Presentation transcript:

Summer School 2013 By Baldur Thorhallsson Shelter and Scotland Summer School 2013 By Baldur Thorhallsson

Key concepts of the literature Vulnerability Capabilities Economic problems ! Political problems !

How can small states compensate for their vulnerability? Domestic arrangements External arrangements Alliance formation Bilateral relations Multilateral organizations

Seeking shelter Bilateral or Multilateral Compensate for greater vulnerability Small economy, economic fluctuations … Limited domestic/international political power … Limits political and economic constraints

Shelter Reduction of risk before the crisis event Assistance in absorbing shocks when risk becomes severe Help in recovering after the event

Shelter Political shelter Economic shelter Societal shelter

Nordic nations – ‘EU’ shelter: Benefits and costs

Benefits Larger and more stable markets - competition Freedom of trade Assure supplies – more stable prices Share and spread risks Emergency help More co-control than with a 1-state shelter Exploit supranational features influence via Commission, EP, Court, lobbying etc

External benefits Part of a larger trading bloc better leverage over terms + rules of trade with individual large partners in international organizations Part of a larger currency bloc Chance of defence if economic interests ‘attacked’ by an outsider

Costs Opening to competition Losing/diluting control of national resources Regional trade/import dependence likely to grow Submission to extensive regulations Budget contributions

Costs Sovereignty Identity Still a small voice Help in trouble ! - Harsh conditions ! Burden Conflicts Harder to get out / shift sides

Scotland as an Independent Small State: Where would it seek shelter?

Scotland and Nordic nations: comparison of variables commonly used to define size of states

Present economic, political, societal and security shelter of the Nordic nations and Scotland

Four key sources of shelter Sought by SNP: NATO European Union Equally (or more) vital in practice: USA as a nation Remnant UK (rUK) Potential Nordic roles institutional options

Scotland and the rUK

Scotland and USA

Scotland and NATO

Scotland and the EU

Scotland and the Nordic nations

Scotland - Arctic

CONCLUSIONS: Hypothetical shelter solutions for Scotland after independence