Unit 2: Research Methods (8%-10%) Thinking Critically With Psychological Science Unit 2: Research Methods (8%-10%)

Module 4 4.1 – Describe how hindsight bias, overconfidence, & the tendency to perceive order in random events illustrate why science-based answers are more valid than those based on intuition & common sense. 4.2 – Identify how the three main components of the scientific attitude relate to critical thinking.

(4.1) The “D’oh” Factor (aka “May the force be with you?”) Psychology is just fancy jargon for what we already know… There is something inside us that provides a reliable guide… We need scientific methods because we often overestimate the value of these things….

See what I mean? Reno is east of Los Angeles. Rome is north of New York. Atlanta is east of Detroit.

“Those who trust in their own wits are fools.” Proverbs 28:26 Anything seems commonplace once explained.” Dr. John Watson to Sherlock Holmes “Life is lived forwards, but understood backwards.” Soren Kierkegaard

Hindsight bias (aka “I knew it all along”) Demonstration (Split into 2 groups…2 close/1 open, reverse ) Group 1 – Psychologists have found that separation strengthens romantic attraction. (“Absence makes the heart grow fonder.”) Group 2 – Psychologists have found that separation weakens romantic attraction. (“Out of sight, out of mind”) The tendency to believe, after learning an outcome, that one would have foreseen it.

Overconfidence Is Boston north or south of Paris? WREAT WATER How sure are you of your answer? WREAT WATER ETRYN ENTRY GRABE BARGE How long would it take you? OCHSA ???

Perceiving order in random events The human brain strives to find patterns & make sense of the world. “Rage for order” - Wallace Stevens If we flip a coin 6 times… Which of the following would be more likely? HHHTTT HTTHTH HHHHHH Kahneman & Tversky (1972) found most people believe the 2nd choice is MOST likely… yet statistically all are equal! Activity: Flip a coin 51 times… What do YOU see?

4.2 The Scientific attitude

4.2 The Scientific attitude Curious Desire to explore & understand w/o misleading or being misled Skeptical “To believe w/ certainty, we must begin by doubting.” What do you mean? How do you know? Humble Awareness of our own vulnerability to error & an openness to new information & perspectives

Critical thinking “The real purpose of the scientific method is to make sure you haven’t been misled into thinking you know something you don’t actually know.” Robert Pirsig, “Zen & the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance” Examine assumptions Assess the source Discern hidden values Confirm evidence Assess conclusions Bullet example Spiral track example