기말고사 6월 16일 10시 30분 교과서 범위 중간고사와 포맷은 동일 반드시 지정 분량대로 답안을 쓸 것 6장, 9장, 11장, 16장 (2절까지), 17장 (3절까지) 중간고사와 포맷은 동일 multiple-choice + short ID + short Analysis 반드시 지정 분량대로 답안을 쓸 것 (예: 3줄 정도, 반 페이지 정도 등) 분량에 못 미치는 경우 full credit 어려움 지난 중간고사 때와 마찬가지로 분반

Theories of Voting (투표 이론) III. Rational Choice Approaches Anthony Downs (1957): An Economic Theory of Democracy Citizens are rational and they vote on the basis of a calculation of which party is most likely to satisfy their own self-interested preferences Parties are like business competing for customers in the market place. They try to locate themselves and their policies close to the median voter. Median voter is in the middle of the distribution with equal numbers of voters to the left and right and is therefore a typical, middle-of-the voter.

Spatial Competition and the “Power of the Median Voter” Voting in a Congressional Committee over Two Minimum Wage Proposals, X and Y Five Senators A, B, C, D, and E and their minimum wage level preferences as follows Senator A: the minimum wage should be abolished. Senator B: $2.00 per hour Senator C: $5.50 per hour Senator D: $6.50 per hour Senator E: $10 per hour (the highest level)

Five senators on the committee and their minimum wage level preferences

The Power of the Median Voter 1) If senators choose between the two minimum wage proposals, X ($3.50) and Y($7.00), which proposal will prevail in this committee, X or Y? Senators A, B prefer X vs. Senators C, D, E prefer Y  3-2 majority decision in favor of proposal Y

The Power of the Median Voter 2) Suppose it was possible to make amendments and option X was changed into $5.00/hr, leaving Y unchanged. Then, which proposal will be chosen, X or Y? This time, senators A, B, C prefer X vs. senators D, E prefer Y  3-2 decision in favor of proposal X

The Power of the Median Voter 3) Allow one more amendment and this time moving Y precisely to Sen. C’s ideal minimum wage ($5.50), then, what happens? 3-2 (C, D, E vs. A, B) majority favors proposal Y.

The Power of the Median Voter Then, no other amendment to X would allow it to unambiguously defeat proposal Y. The best thing supporters of proposal X could hope to do would be to amend it so that X, too, perfectly correspond to Sen. C’s position. In conclusion, the motions in this example tend to converge on Sen. C’s ideal minimum wage level. By the way, who is Senator C? Senator C is the median member (voter) of the committee.  The Power of the Median Voter

Who in 2009 was going to be a critical member of the Senate during the first year of the Obama presidency?  한국 대통령과 정당정치에 적용 가능성? If Not, Why Not? Woon (April 2009, 331): Predicting policy change in the Obama presidency

Party Position vs. My Position Mean & Standard Deviation When a voter is deciding her electoral choice, both party position & party unity (split) matter. (Average) Party position is represented by mean. Party unity(split) is represented by standard deviation.

Party Position vs. Party Split If the Democratic Party’s policy position is closer to the voter’s ideal policy position, the voter will vote Democratic. What if, however, Democrats are too much divided? Then, it is possible that this voter would end up voting Republican, instead.

Hinich and Munger (1997, 125)

Mean and Standard Deviation: (Ex) Party Position and Voters’ Choice Voter i’s ideal policy position: Party’s average policy position:  Mean Party’s split:  Standard Deviation

Mean vs. Standard Deviation: (Ex) Party Position and Voters’ Choice Then, voter i will vote for Republican Party. BECAUSE, 1) The smaller the difference between voter’s position and party’s position, the better. 2) The smaller the party split, the better. 3) With both party position and split taken into account, vote i will vote for R, when the condition above is met.

If If we partially use the formula to only consider the difference between this voter and mean party position, then Which party shows a smaller distance with voter i’s position?  It is D (4), not R (16)  So, will this voter vote for the Democratic Party, whose average policy position is closer to his or hers?

Now, after taking party split (sd) into account, which Wait a minute!!! We also have to consider party split as well as party average position. Now, let’s use the full formula to consider party split as well. As for the Republican Party, As for the Democratic Party, Now, after taking party split (sd) into account, which party is a better fit to this voter?  It is the Republican Party! (18), not the Democratic Party (20)

Mean and SD for party politics In short, this voter will vote for Republican Party after considering not only party position (mean) but also party split (standard deviation). Conclusion: “In spite of party position (mean) being close to a voter’s preference, the voter could end up supporting the rival party, due to party split (standard deviation).” Again, party labels offer a shorthand cue that keeps voting decisions cheap and simple, if and only if the labels are fully informative. A high level of division  a high level of uncertainty  then, party labels are not necessarily informative

Which Party System do you prefer? Party Polarization (정당양극화) No room for negotiation Responsible Party System? Ready to compromise No difference between the parties Third party or 안철수?

Reasons for Abstention (기권)? Do not know about the candidates Personal reasons/time conflict Voting doesn’t change anything Not interested No preference for any candidate Any other reasons?