The International Politics of the Gulf By: Maryam Al-Kharusi

Outline Introduction Iraqi Wars Decisions Saudi Arabian Alliance Decisions American Policy in the Gulf Conclusion The International Politics of the Gulf Local states interactions Gulf’s strategic role US intervention in the region

Introduction 1970s marks a dramatic change in the structure of power in the area. Why? IRs of the Gulf before& after 1970s 3 main regional statesـــــــ Gulf security issues

Introduction Security agenda Social dislocations(Iran& Iraq) Transnational identities (4) ـــــــDomestic stability Iran, Iraq, KSAــــــــ Balance of power “threats“ (e.g. Iran, Iraq) Regime security

Iraqi Wars Decisions (1980-1990) war against foes. Why? Coz; Regime security. The prospect for victory was an important element;(the invasion would be met with some support). Transnational connections.

The Iran-Iraq War Shah’s Iran# Ba’thist Iraq; Coz border crises 1975; Algiers agreement Iranian revolution(new regime) 1979 unstable relations (-) violent demonstrations in Iraqi Shi’i areas & border clashes in the Kurdish areas.

The Iran-Iraq War July 1979, Saddam Hussein: * Islamic Liberation Movement(topple Ba’thist regime) * Org. of the Iraqi’ Ulama(violence #Gov.) * Al-Da’wa party( military wing) 1980 , export Iranian revolutionary model. Escalating the crisis.

The Iran-Iraq War War decision: 1. Planning and organization 2. organize a military coup in Tehran(fail) The changes in Iran & Iraq. unsuccessful attack; Iranian decision. 1987; US involved in the war. 1988; UNSC: Res598 calling for a ceasefire.

The Gulf War International conspiracy: overproduction by Kuwait & UAE; a hostile attitude by US. Israeli strike on Iraqi nuclear establishment. A secret Org. “ intelligence” 1989, a failed coup. Bad domestic POL& ECO situation; fall of USSR. Changes in Iraqi FP.* “The mother of battles”

The Gulf War August 1990, Iraq invaded Kuwait. The devastating attack by US and coalition forces (34). Why Saddam refused to with draw from Kuwait?! Iraq’s defeat on the battlefield. *

Saudi Arabia and the Iran-Iraq War Iranian revolution/ Shi’i communities. Iran has challenged the al-Saud’s Islamic credentials; Iranian pilgrimags behaviour (1982/1983/1987*) So, KSA aligned with Iraq. At the beginning of hostilities: Financial aid, opened Saudi ports & Saudi bases. 1982; fully support(i.e KSA was in Iraq’s camp) 1981; GCC Iraq

Saudi Arabia and the Gulf War Iraq was now an immediate military/ideological/domestic threats: *The border of the oil-rich E province of KSA. *Revolt against their Gov. *“propaganda barrage” would destabilize = accept the new realities. Both balance of power& domestic security levels = open military alliance with US*

Saudi Arabia and the Gulf War American-Saudi relations excited domestic Pol. Opposition= US facilities were attacked in 1995/1996. KSA relations with Iran began to improve: 1- the death of Ayatollah Khomeini 2- the collapse of oil prices But !? Both side do not trust each other: (ideological competitor, RP).

Saudi Arabia and the Iraq war Why KSA not supported US attack on Iraq? 1- Iraq was not nearly the threat to KSA 2- Saudi public opinion had taken a dramatic anti- American turn. But! KSA see American allies as its long-term security guarantors = more secret cooperation. 9/11 attack; US#KSA (Israeli-Palestinian violence in the 2 intifada/US attacks on al-Qaeda in Afghanistan)

Saudi Arabia and the Iraq war Shift !! (KSA has seek for balance Coz its interest) KSA increased oil production to prevent price spikes. It permitted US to coordinate air attacks on Iraq from airbase south of Riyadh. It allowed American forces to access the isolated base that near from the Iraqi borders.

American Policy in the Gulf WW2; oil resources. Developed relations Coz interests & USSR. 1971; US policy in the region. US military involvement: 2ed GW of 2003.

The 1970s: Oil Revolution and the Twin-Pillar Policy “Nixon Doctrine” = supporting the military build–up of Iran& KSA. USSR strengthened its relations with Iraq. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VCLRlVxOH-Q Iran increased oil prices to their highest levels in history = sending US and other states into a recession. The oil revolution strengthened the “twin-pillar policy”. How? 1970s

The Iranian Revolution and the Iran-Iraq War “twin-pillar policy”, 1979. Hostage crisis Iranian revolution, Afghanistan invasion, Iraqi attack on Iran, oil prices crisis = reconfiguration of US military power on the Gulf. President Carter. Regan administration/(AWACS) aircraft. 1982, Iraqi forces withdraw from Iran.

The Iranian Revolution and the Iran-Iraq War US supported Iraq in the war: “dual-use” technologies, weapons, agricultural goods. 1985-6 Regan administration: Iran-contra scandal. Iran attacked oil tankers shipping in the Gulf. UNSC 598 re.

The Gulf War and the 1990s A new level of military cooperation (security alliance). The end of cold war/ Local actors. The monarchies welcomed the security cover by US. Why? = US military bases in Qatar& Kuwait… the Fifth Fleet in Bahrain… Oman & UAE provided access to their facilities… US air wing operated out of Saudi airbases.

The Gulf War and the 1990s Negative public reactions( e.g.1996 bombing) “dual containment” policy: containment of Iraq was legitimated by UNSC resolutions: economic & military sanctions. containment of Iran was unilateral by US.

9/11 and the Iraq War Turning point in US policy in the Gulf. Before & After 9/11. The new US “ war on terrorism”. President Bush: Iraq was the center of this new “axis of evil” threatening US security. Limited Int’l support for the war.

9/11 and the Iraq War War decision : WMD, moderation& pro-Western democracy , reform=reduce terrorist groups developing. BUT!? strategic benefits (2) 2003, US had occupied Iraq The American failure in Iraq. 9/11 was a lesson for US to not re-engage with Iran. Why?

9/11 and the Iraq War Iran remained natural in Afghanistan & Iraq wars; + discussions. But! It is one of the members of the axis of evil. Confrontation continued to dominate the relationship between them . Why not KSA? It is an ambivalent ally in the war on terrorism. Why Riyadh expressed Misgivings about US policy in Iraq?

Conclusion

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