SR 156 Level 2 Toll Study TAMC Board Meeting August 23, 2017

Toll Demand Modeling and Analysis Process AMBAG Model Toll Alternatives Supplemental EIR Information and Analysis Financial Analysis Sub-area Toll Model Scenarios and Testing Traffic Operations Cellular / GPS Data (Big Data) Socio Economic Data Blue Tooth Path Survey Traffic Counts Road user profiles by day and season Visitor Data Travel time surveys Speed surveys AMBAG model input review Emphasize the sub-area toll model looked at weekends and peak periods.

Primary Diversion Routes Castroville Boulevard Blackie Road

Peak Season Weekend Midday – Volume/Capacity

Peak Season Weekday Midday – Volume/Capacity

US 101 Weaving Constraints 0.70 miles spacing 5 conflict points NB Replace arrows with “collision stars” showing four conflict points removed by the project.

US 101 Benefits 0.85 miles spacing 3 conflict points NB Replace arrows with “collision stars” showing four conflict points removed by the project.

Construction Schedule

Diversions with Toll and Year Delivery Method Year Daily Toll1 Daily Diversion2 Public Opening (2028) $3.60 35%-45% 2035 $3.90 40%-45% 2078 $5.90 45%-50% P3 Opening (2025) $4.20 2075 $7.60 45%-55% 1 – 2015 U.S. Dollars 2 - varies by time of year, time of day, and vehicle type.

Local toll discounts

Financial Forecasts Two base scenarios Toll rates increase annually Public Funding Option P3 Funding Option Toll rates increase annually Toll diversion based on toll rates Costs only for Toll road construction, maintenance and reconstruction Roadway capacity impacts on Expressway and diversion routes based on toll rates and season Stress test

Toll Road Project Funding Sources Capital funding options available to pay project costs include: Financing Options Toll Revenue Bonds Federal TIFIA Loan Equity Other Funding Sources: Local, State, Federal Grants TAMC: Measure X P3 Scenario Changes from June results Stripped out Construction Costs: Associated with existing SR-156, Blackie and Castroville (about $20 million) Lifecycle Costs: Major Maintenance and full reconstruction costs for existing SR-156, Blackie and Castroville New lifecycle cost curve for the tolled portion of SR-156 Full funding of all lifecycle costs For public delivery the reduction in costs translates to almost equal reduction in funding gap For P3 the unfunded gap increased slightly from June due to funding of full reconstruction costs from residual revenues as well as a slightly higher target IRR

Toll Revenue Cash Flow Waterfall Toll revenues are the sole funding sources for all ongoing costs Gross Toll Revenues Less: O&M Costs Net Revenues Senior Lien Debt Service (Bonds) Sub. Lien Debt Service (TIFIA Loan) Less: Major Maintenance Costs Less: Full Reconstruction Set-asides Residual Revenues Gross Toll Revenues Less: O&M Costs Less: Major Maintenance Costs Net Revenues Senior Lien Debt Service (Bonds) Sub. Lien Debt Service (TIFIA Loan) Less: Full Reconstruction Set-asides Residual Revenues Return on Equity Public Delivery P3 Scenario

Summary of Assumptions: Public vs P3 Delta (P3 – Public) Notes Project Costs* Project Cost $374.3 MM $339.0 MM -35.3 MM Shorter schedule/reduced inflationary impact Project Schedule Project Start 2019 Increased delivery efficiency with P3 Tolling Start 2028 2025 3 yrs Toll Rate and Revenues Total Revenues (50 years) $3.66 B $3.71 B 51.5 MM Increased revenues driven by higher toll rate increases Annual Toll Rate Increase** 1.00% 1.50% 0.50% Operations over 50 Years Total O&M Costs (50 years) $1.42 B $1.26 B -169.2 MM Earlier start date provides inflationary benefits to P3 Major Maintenance $63.7 MM $57.7 MM -6.0 MM Full Reconstruction $258.2 MM $232.6 MM -25.6 MM *Include the impact of inflation **In addition to inflationary toll increase of 2.50% annually

Summary of Results: Public vs. P3 Delta (P3 – Public) CAPITAL FUNDING RESULTS Funding Uses Construction Cost $374.4 MM $339.1 MM -$35.3 MM Financing Costs $41. 3 MM $26.6 MM -$14.7 MM Total Project Delivery Costs $415.7 MM $365.7 MM -$50.0 MM Funding Sources TR Bond Proceeds $103.3 MM $47.9 MM -$52.5 MM TIFIA $135.9 MM $117.1 MM -$18.8 MM Equity* NA $52.5 MM Grant Funds/Other $69.85 MM - Total Funding Sources $309.1 MM $290.9 MM -$18.2 MM Project Funding Shortfall $106.6 MM $74.8 MM -$31.8 MM OPERATING PRO-FORMA RESULTS Residual Revenues $1.4 B $0 -$1.4 B Change from June

P3 Delivery: Cash Flow Timing + Funding Gap

Conclusions Traffic growth requires additional roadway capacity Increases in construction cost from Level 1 study Construction for Public option is longer than the Private option Shortfall in construction cost for both scenarios P3 has a smaller shortfall Stress test higher toll results increased diversion and lower tolls may decrease the funding gap if more cars divert to the toll road congestion on Castroville and Blackie keeps more cars on the toll road Viability of the project: Is there a partner to fund the shortfall upfront? (public or private)

Caveats and Next Steps Public-Private Partnership State authorization expired Aggressive P3 schedule Coastal Commission Permit Santa Cruz Long-Toed Salamander Opportunity for Caltrans to weigh in Tolling Study Report at October TAMC Board Meeting