Political Science 200A Week 8 Macro-Outcomes: Emergence of Democracy

Brian Downing Ph.D. University of Chicago 1992. The Military Revolution and Political Change: The Origins of Democracy and Autocracy in Early Modern Europe. Political commentator in Washington area

Downing 1. How would you characterize Downing’s analytic approach? 2. What is Downing’s chief hypothesis? What is the dependent variable? How does he explain variation in this variable?

Downing Why did democracy emerge in some European countries but not others? 1. Medieval constitutionalism Parliaments controlling taxation and war/peace Decentralized government Independent judiciaries and rule of law Basic freedoms and rights for much of population 2. Military Revolution of 16-17th Centuries Centralization/Mobilization of domestic resources 3. Avoiding this Revolution or External funding

Downing 3. Are there missing domestic elements in this realist middle-range theory?

Note the organization of this book Downing Note the organization of this book Introductory chapter Question and thesis on page 1 Alternative answers to question Sketch of thesis on page 10 Research design on page 15 Organization of the book Chapters 2-3: The Theory Chapters 4-9: Case Studies Chapter 10: Restatement and summary

Barrington Moore (1913- 2005) Ph.D. Yale University (1941) 1948-79. Affiliation with Harvard University Social Origins of Dictatorship and Democracy (1966)

Moore Social Origins of Dictatorship and Democracy A. Revising the Marxist class story Subtitle: Lord and Peasant in the Making of the Modern World Key dependent variable—democracy, fascism, or communism

Moore Social Origins of Dictatorship and Democracy B. Rise of bourgeois democracy [1] Early elimination of peasant question (enclosure) [2] Balance between crown and landed aristocracy [3] Shift to commercial agriculture (gentry) [4] Rise of town-dwellers (“no bourgeois, no democracy”) [5] Weakening (not elimination) of landed aristocracy [6] Prevention of aristocratic-bourgeois alliance against peasants and workers [7] Revolutionary break with the past

Moore Social Origins of Dictatorship and Democracy C. Rise of fascism [1] Preservation and subordination of the peasantry [2] Stifled growth of cities (no commercial bourgeoisie) [3] Failure to develop nobility’s independence from crown [4] Alliance of landed aristocracy and industrial bourgeoisie Junkers Alliance of iron and rye [5] Mass anti-capitalism

Moore Social Origins of Dictatorship and Democracy D. Rise of communism [1] Survival of traditional peasant social institutions [2] Failure of aristocracy to develop commercial agriculture

Barry Weingast 1978 Ph.D., Caltech Professor, Stanford University

North & Weingast “Constitutions and Commitment” (1989). Explaining evolution of constitutional institutions I. The King’s Credible Commitment Problem Ability unilaterally to alter the terms of his agreements ex post II. Institutions to Tie the King’s Hands Parliamentary Supremacy Power of Purse to Parliament End of Royal Prerogative Independence of Courts plus Credible Threat of Revolution III. Why Didn’t Parliament Become Tyrannical?

Alexis de Tocqueville (1805-1859) Administrative post and trip to America 1835. Democracy in America Career in French politics and forced retirement

Tocqueville 1. Explanations for America’s democratic success a. Mores and religion of Americans b. Institutions and the laws c. Physical setting 2. Primacy of mores and customs a. Commercial rather than political passions b. Love of order c. Religion checks innovation and shapes notions of duties Direct versus indirect effects of religion

Tocqueville 3. Tocqueville as a social scientist Hypothesis: Importance of mores over geography and laws Controlled comparisons with Spanish America and French Canada Controlled comparisons of Eastern and Western USA