Designing scenarios and RAP model Loveleen De and Katharina Bollig, ILO Manila 2 June 2015

Agenda Where are we now? Steps of ABND Designing scenarios Which recommendations to select? Fixing the parameters RAP model Structure of RAP Advantages and limitations Workshop mechanics

Where are we now?

Step 1 – Assessment matrix Steps of ABND Step 1 – Assessment matrix Step 2 – Cost estimation Step 3 – Launch of the SPF

Steps of ABND 1. What is the existing situation? 2. What are the policy and implementation level gaps? 3. Recommendations to close the gaps 4. How much will it cost to implement until 2020? 5. Is it affordable? 6. Finalizing the ABND report 7. Launch of the SPF

Steps of ABND 1. What is the existing situation? 2. What are the policy and implementation level gaps? 3. Recommendations to close the gaps 6. Finalizing the ABND report 7. Launch of the national SPF We are here 4. How much will it cost to implement until 2020? 5. Is it affordable?

Designing scenarios

ABND matrix SPF-1 Health SPF-2 Children SPF-3 Working age SPF guarantees SPOFS provisions Existing schemes Policy gaps Recos Imp issues SPF-1 Health Social insurance Social welfare Safety nets LMIs SPF-2 Children SPF-3 Working age SPF-4 Elderly

From Step 1 to Step 2 There are 2 types of recommendations We can use the RAP model Recommendations to introduce non-contributory benefits, increase non-contributory benefit amounts, extend coverage Recommendations to introduce social insurance, improve coordination between schemes and operations, qualitative recommendations to improve quality of services We need to conduct further studies There are 2 types of recommendations

Which recommendations to select? √ ‘Children’ guarantee Expand the CCT programme to cover more households Merge the CCT and scholarship programmes Calculate the cost of a universal child allowance Improve management and efficiency of the school feeding programme √

Which recommendations to select? ‘Working age’ guarantee Explore the feasibility of introducing unemployment insurance, linked with employment services Introduce a public employment programme for workers in the informal economy √

Framing scenarios ‘Children’ guarantee Recommendation Sample scenarios Recommendation 1: Expand the CCT programme Scenario 1: CCT to all poor households (not only very poor households) at the current benefit level Scenario 2: CCT to all poor households (not only very poor households) with increased benefits Recommendation 3: Introduce a universal child allowance programme Scenario 1: Child allowance for all children at a specific benefit level

Framing scenarios ‘Working age’ guarantee Recommendation Scenario Recommendation 2: Public employment programme for workers in the informal economy Scenario 1: Establish a public works programme providing 50 days of work at the minimum wage per person per year

Fixing the parameters ‘Working age’ guarantee Scenario 1: Establish a public works programme providing 50 days of work at the minimum wage per person per year Benefit: Minimum wage (US$ 10 per day) for up to 50 days per year Estimated beneficiaries: unemployed and underemployed informal economy workers + agricultural workers in the low season Take-up rate: progressively grow from 0 to 100% over 5 years Administrative costs: 10%

Rapid Assessment Protocol (RAP) model

Structure of RAP 1. Input data Labour market (EAP) Demographic data (POP) 1. Input data General government operations (GGO) Macroeconomic data (ECO) Cost of benefits 2. Estimated cost of benefits PHP % of GDP % of govt expenses Summary of results 3. Cost of SPF till 2020

RAP model Example - SPF benefits as % of GDP in Thailand 1.2% 0.5%

Advantages and limitations of RAP Shows the cost of the ‘nationally-defined SPF’ in a country Provides a basis to initiate and facilitate national dialogue Results are simplistic and indicative, and further actuarial studies are needed before designing a scheme

Workshop mechanics

Day 1: 2 June Quiz Who wants to be a protectionnaire? – earning budget money in “Coresia” Group activity on the RAP model for “Coresia” – using the RAP model to calculate the cost of the SPF within the national budget Presenting the results of RAP to the Coresian government Presentation of the RAP model for the Philippines – based on the initial draft prepared by ILO

Day 2: 3 June Core Group discussion to decide the scenarios and parameters for the RAP model in the Philippines

Thank you