Statistics Killed The Radio Star (yes it did) Michael Shadbolt Otumoetai College mshadbolt@otc.school.nz Presentation for Auckland Math Association Statistics Day, 25 Nov 2016 Created: Nov 2016 Michael Shadbolt, Otumoetai College. mshadbolt@otc.school.nz Based on multiple sources and inspirations Image source: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/0/04/Video_Killed_the_Radio_Star_single_cover.jpg

Introduction Otumoetai College State Co-ed in Tauranga. ~1950 students, decile 7. 2IC Math Dept. 10 years teaching. L3 Statistics for most of that. Previously: Diploma in Commercial Broadcasting (NZRTS) Marketing and Promotions Manager for Radioworks Tauranga (Mediaworks) Breakfast Producer for Classic Hits Wellington (TRN/nzme) Image: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/62/Round-Radio.png

What is the Number One radio station in New Zealand? Suggestions? Image: http://www.nosleeptillnumberone.com/images/layout/number_one.png

Source: GfK_RAM_Total_New_Zealand_Press_Release_Survey_2_2016.pdf From: http://www.gfk.com/fileadmin/user_upload/dyna_content/NZ/Documents/Press_Releases/GfK_RAM_Total_New_Zealand_Press_Release_Survey_2_2016.pdf How can The Edge be Number 1, and Newstalk ZB be Number 1? Answer: We’re measuring two different things. Cume: Total different listeners at some point in a week. Share: Percentage of total commercial radio listening. People listen longer to talkback than music. Older people listen more than younger people. Who has the most listeners? The Edge. Who is the most listened to? Newstalk ZB Note: This is for commercial stations only. Nationwide, the weekly cumulative audience for RNZ National is 529,000 or 13.2% of the 10+ population. Among all radio stations in New Zealand, RNZ National’s station share is 11.1%*, which would put it Number 1 for Share

Source: http://www. gfk

What is the Number One radio station in your region? Suggestions? Image: http://www.nosleeptillnumberone.com/images/layout/number_one.png

Region: Share/Cume leaders Nth: More/More Auk: Newstalk/Edge BoP: Coast/Edge Wai: Rock/Edge Tar: Sound/Edge HB: Edge/Edge Mnwt: More/More Nels: Edge/Edge Wgtn: Newstalk/ZM Chch: More/More Image: http://newzealandmap.facts.co/newzealandmapof/NewZealandBlankMap.png Source: http://www.gfk.com/en-nz/insights/report/radio-audience-measurement-reports-archive-1/ Dun: Rock/Edge Sth: Edge/Edge

Wait, let’s take a step back… isn’t radio dead? Especially with youth? Image: https://pixabay.com/p-147188/?no_redirect

75.1% of Kiwis aged 10-17 listen to a commercial radio station in NZ each week Source: http://www.gfk.com/fileadmin/user_upload/dyna_content/NZ/Documents/Press_Releases/GfK_RAM_Total_New_Zealand_Press_Release_Survey_2_2016.pdf Image: http://data.schwabenorthamerica.com/nway/images/alive-logo.png Note: Nationwide, the weekly cumulative audience for RNZ National is 529,000 or 13.2% of the 10+ population. Among all radio stations in New Zealand, RNZ National’s station share is 11.1%* *As at 10 Nov 2016. Source: http://www.gfk.com/fileadmin/user_upload/dyna_content/NZ/Documents/Press_Releases/GfK_RAM_Total_New_Zealand_Press_Release_Survey_2_2016.pdf

Demographics and Market Segmentation PPDAC: Problem: Background research and understanding context Image: http://www.synotive.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/niche-audience.jpg

Place on the Quadrant Graph Newstalk ZB Radio Hauraki Radio Sport The Sound The Rock Flava The Hits The Edge Coast ZM Horizontal axis: Younger audience to Older audience. Vertical: Female skew to Male skew Quadrant graph: Try to place the following radio stations, as to the demographic that they are pitching to: Newstalk ZB, Radio Hauraki, Radio Sport, The Sound, The Rock FM, Flava, The Hits, The Edge, Coast, ZM

Source: http://www.trb.co.nz/station-matrix.html

Why do radio stations care about ratings? Q: How do radio stations make their money? A: Ads, ads, ads. Image: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/1/1b/4_stars.svg/1280px-4_stars.svg.png

More listeners = Charge more for advertising https://woliveiras.com.br/public/images/money.jpg More listeners = Charge more for advertising

Robbie Rakete Radio School Video: RRRadio Part Two https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z_9GydNtaSc (1 min 40) See https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p_mOWM_LqPc for part one https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z_9GydNtaSc

Everyone is Number One! …in some demographic You’re number one! And You’re number one! And You’re number one! http://gallery.yopriceville.com/Free-Clipart-Pictures/Decorative-Numbers/Metallic_and_Blue_Number_One_PNG_Clipart_Image#.WDU9PPl96Uk

The Problem

How I feel sometimes, when I am teaching period 5… Radio is true, old-school one-to-many one-way broadcasting. Image: http://weknowmemes.com/generator/uploads/generated/g1364561777273360016.jpg

How do you measure the immeasurable when it needs to be measured? Q: Suggestions? Image: https://pixabay.com/p-158276/?no_redirect

UK Radio Listening Diary. Non-sampling errors that you can think of? Image: http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-cfjopNzcLo0/UXUfJsPq09I/AAAAAAAAT8g/XN3n57q7zXY/s1600/photo.JPG

USA Radio Listening Diary. Non-sampling errors that you can think of? Image: http://www.markramseymedia.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/diary_instr.gif

Write down the time of day, location and station for all the times you heard the radio on Monday. (Midnight to Midnight) Q: How hard was that? Q: How accurate do you think you were? Q: Did you count radio that you heard, but didn’t intend to? (radio in the taxi, radio in the store/gym, visiting a relative) Q: How do you know what station you are actually listening to? http://images.rosendahl.dk/products/436/72/43672/v/43672/Large/station-table-clock-black-white-oe-11-cm-alarm-arne-jacobsen-460x460.png

In groups: What are the non-sampling errors inherent in taking these samples? https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/5/57/Circle-style-warning.svg/400px-Circle-style-warning.svg.png

In groups: Invent a better way! http://cliparts.co/cliparts/8T6/LGR/8T6LGRRTE.gif

“It’s thought the local industry has tested an app from Ipsos called MediaCell, which detects inaudible codes inserted into the audio streams of any medium—principally radio, television and the internet. When people hear the sounds, their smartphones automatically capture the time, date, place and source of their listening.” It has been trialled in the UK, Italy, Mexico and the UAE. http://stoppress.co.nz/news/bye-bye-diary-radio-industry-reviews-its-research-methodology-looks-move-away-twice-yearly-survey http://stoppress.co.nz/news/bye-bye-diary-radio-industry-reviews-its-research-methodology-looks-move-away-twice-yearly-survey http://www.ipsosmediacell.com/

http://uk.ipsosmediacell.com/System.html

Level 2 – Statistical Reports https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/c/c3/New_Zealand_Qualifications_Authority_logo.svg/1280px-New_Zealand_Qualifications_Authority_logo.svg.png

Useful Websites www. trb. co Useful Websites www.trb.co.nz - The Radio Bureau – cross-industry radio promoter www.gfk.com/en-nz/insights/report/radio-audience-measurement/ - Archive of audience measurement reports www.gfk.com/en-nz/insights/ - For latest press releases http://advertising.nzme.co.nz/brands/ http://nzmesurveyresults.co.nz/ - nzme websites http://www.mediaworks.co.nz/ - Mediaworks website http://www.radionz.co.nz/about/audience-research - Radio NZ audience measurement www.ipsosmediacell.com - The MediaCell software https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Portable_People_Meter - A similar automated surveying device

Articles and Press Releases: http://stoppress. co

Video resources: https://youtu Video resources: https://youtu.be/T_28KPUitf4 - Video of a focus group of consumers discussing radio https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p_mOWM_LqPc - RRRadio Part One. In the first part of the video, the radio stars give a series of faux tips on how to succeed in the radio industry. Throughout the course of the three-minute video, several instances of presenter nudity hint at how radio is starting to shift into visual channels. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z_9GydNtaSc - RRRadio Part Two. The second video is dedicated almost entirely to how radio ratings can be cherry-picked to make every station number one in at least one obscure category.

Find this presentation at: https://goo.gl/X06SkV