Demography or Economics? The Impact on Admissions of External Factors D. Scott Looney, Director of External Affairs Cranbrook Schools, Bloomfield Hills, MI 48304 slooney@cranbrook.edu 248-645-3409 For titles and subtitles each word capitalized except articles and prepositions and conjunctions for four or fewer letters. Title and subtitle text appears black on clear/white backgrounds.

Public & Charter Schools The Economy Demography Enrollment: Public & Charter Schools Private (Parochial) Independent

Public & Charter Schools The Economy Demography Enrollment: Public & Charter Schools Private (Parochial) Independent

Assumptions Demography and Economics Matter Probably more than good marketing and admission practices Demographic, Economic and Socio-graphic predictions are only as good as the set of assumptions on which they are based (baby boomlet error). Economic and Demographic trends are relational. When the Economy and Demography are pointed in the same direction (good or bad) they are compounding. It will get either better or worse, eventually…both economic and demographic trends are cyclical… (but only somewhat predicable).

More Assumptions All Demography that matters is local…even to a large extent for boarding schools. The location of a school can either insulate it from negative impacts of national demographic and economic downturns, or intensify the effects. Schools which may feel isolated from national demographic or economic trends, can still be indirectly affected by the Government’s reaction to the trends. Demographic research is essential, and not necessarily difficult or expensive.

Independent Enrollment Questions for Another Day… Private (Parochial) Impact of Growth of other Types of Schools…? Independent Enrollment Private (Parochial) Enrollment Public Enrollment Charter Schools?

Growth in Charter Schools Center for Education Reform

Economy or Demography? Which has the greater impact on enrollment growth: the economy or demographics?

Z - Scores A “Z – Score” is a score that is converted to a common scale where scores from sets of data with different units can be compared. Z = (Raw Score – Mean of Group Scores) Standard Deviation In other words…what is the ratio of the difference in this specific score from the group mean (average) to the standard deviation of this group. Z-score education and explanation courtesy of Tom White, SSATB

Numbers 1 through 10 Graphed Chronologically Numbers 1 through 10 Converted to Z scores

Z Scores (Raw Score – Mean) / Standard Deviation Private, Public, NAIS Enrollment (3 –17 yrs), K to 12th , SSAT Test Takers and GDP

Z Scores (Raw Score – Mean) / Standard Deviation Private, Public, NAIS Enrollment (3 –17 yrs), K to 12th , SSAT Test Takers and GDP National Center for Education Statistics 2001

Public, Private and NAIS Enrollments 1986-1999 1990

Private and NAIS Enrollments 1986-1999 1990 1993

NAIS Enrollments 1986-1999 1989 & 1990

K- 12th Public, Private, NAIS Core School Enrollment, SSAT Test Takers, GDP and Per Capita Income in Relation to Population of Children (Difference in Z-Scores of School Age Children, 1986 - 1999) SSATB, The Bureau of Economic Analysis & The National Center for Education Statistics 2001

K- 12th Public, Private & NAIS Core School Enrollment, Population of School Age Children, SSAT Test Takers in Relation to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) 1986 to 1999 (Difference in Z-Scores from the Public School Enrollment) NAIS, SSATB, The Bureau of Economic Analysis & The National Center for Education Statistics 2001

9th - 12th Private School Enrollment, NAIS Core School Enrollment, SSAT Test Takers and GDP in Relation to Public School Enrollments (Difference in Z-Scores from the Public School Enrollment, 1986-1999) NAIS, SSATB, The Bureau of Economic Analysis & The National Center for Education Statistics 2001

9th - 12th Public, Private & NAIS Core School Enrollment, SSAT Test Takers in Relation to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) (Difference in Z-Scores from the Gross Domestic Product – Inflation Adjusted, 1986 to 1999) NAIS, SSATB, The Bureau of Economic Analysis & The National Center for Education Statistics 2001

Enrollment

Public vs. Private Enrollment Growth 2000-2011 (Z-scores) National Center for Education Statistics 2001 SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Statistics of Public Elementary and Secondary Schools; Common Core of Data surveys; Private School Universe Survey, various years; and National Elementary and Secondary Enrollment Model. (This table was prepared May 2001.)

Enrollment Growth N.A.I.S. vs. Public and Parochial NAIS Statistics 1997, Vol.1

The Large get Larger, the Small get Smaller N. A. I. S The Large get Larger, the Small get Smaller N.A.I.S. - Enrollment Growth by School Size (1987-1997) NAIS Statistics 1998, Vol 1.

N.A.I.S. - Enrollment Growth by School Type (1989-1999) NAIS Statistics 2000, Vol 1.

SSAT Test Takers 1956 to 1999 Courtesy of SSATB

Private School Enrollment Projection by National Department of Education (in thousands) National Center for Education Statistics 2001

Population Demographics

U.S. Population Growth, 1950 to 2000 Source: US Census 2000 Brief: Population Change and Distribution, 1990-2000

Number of Births (in thousands) in the United States, 1909 - 1994 Age 43 Age 28 Age 12 American Demographics, 1997 Age

Numbers of Births in the United States 1951-2011 SOURCE: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, Current Population Reports, Series P-25, Nos. 1092, 1095, and "National Population Estimates for the 1990s," January 2001, and "Annual Projections of the Total Resident Population: 1999 to 2100," January 2000; and U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS), Annual Summary of Births, Marriages, Divorces, and Deaths: United States, various years, National Vital Statistics Reports; and unpublished tabulations. (This table was prepared May 2001.) National Center for Education Statistics 2001

U.S. Population by Age, 2000 Boomers Boomlet

U.S. Population by Age, 2025 Boomers Boomlet

U.S. Population by Age, 2050 Boomers Boomlet

U.S. Population by Age, 2100 Boomlet

The Boomlet Distribution American Demographics June 1999

Populations of School Age Children 1986 to 2011 (in thousands) SOURCE: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, Current Population Reports, Series P-25, Nos. 1092, 1095, and "National Population Estimates," June 1999, and "Annual Projections of the Total Resident Population: 1999 to 2100," January 2000. (This table was prepared June 2001.)

Populations of Children Age 14 to 17 from 1986 to 2011 (in thousands) SOURCE: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, Current Population Reports, Series P-25, Nos. 1092, 1095, and "National Population Estimates," June 1999, and "Annual Projections of the Total Resident Population: 1999 to 2100," January 2000. (This table was prepared June 2001.)

School age U.S Population to 2050 (in thousands)

U.S. Teen Population ages 12-19 (in millions) “What number do you think is the ideal number of children for a family to have?” Two Children More than Two 1976 1986 1996 1976 1986 1996 50% 50% 55% 33% 37% 29% General Social Survey National Opinion Research Center University of Chicago, 1997 +9% +7% +3%

School Age Population Between 1996 and 2004 the numbers of school age children is projected to increase each year. Between 2005 and 2010 the numbers of school age children should be stagnant or decreasing slightly each year. Between 2010 and 2020 there will be dramatically decreasing numbers of school age children, so… Between 1996 and 2020 the total number of school age children will increase very little. After 2020 there should be a dramatic increase in the number of school age children.

Suburbs Gain (percent living in central cities, suburbs and non-metropolitan areas, 1950 and 1998)

Economic Factors

Per Capita Income 1986 to 2011 SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Statistics of State School Systems; Common Core of Data survey; Early Estimates survey; and Revenue Receipts from State Sources Model; DRI•WEFA, "U.S. Quarterly Model," and National Education Association, Estimates School Statistics. (Latest edition 2001. Copyright 2001 by the National Education Association. All rights reserved.) (This table was prepared June 2001.)

Gross Domestic Product (in Billions) 1929 to 2000 in Real Dollars and 1996 Constant Dollars

Births Logged for Peak in Family Spending The Spending Wave Births Logged for Peak in Family Spending Immigration 70,000 U.S. Births Logged for Peak Spending 50,000 30,000 Dow Adjusted For Inflation 10,000 5,000 1,000 Dow H.S. Dent Foundation, from American Demographics, December 2000

Consumer Spending Spending The Baby Boomers Age Peak in Spending 2000 H.S. Dent Foundation from American Demographics, Dec. 2000

Average Household Spending by Age Group Indexed to 100, 1997 Average Total American Demographics April 1999

Income Demographic from 1997 to 2020 (in thousand of families) Number of Families (in Thousands) ISACS homepage: (www.isacs.org)

Income Demographic in thousand of families (from $75,000 to over $150,000) Number of Families (in Thousands) ISACS homepage: (www.isacs.org)

Percent of Household with Incomes of $100,000 or more, 1980-1997 (in 1997 dollars) In 1996, 67% of Americans agreed with the statement: “Both the husband and the wife should contribute to the household income.” In 1986, only 48% felt this way. General Social Survey National Opinion Research Center University of Chicago, 1997 American Demographics, Jan. 1999

Average Family Income by Educational Attainment of the Householder, 1997

Median Family Income by Educational Attainment of Householder, 1973 & 1997 (in 1997 dollars)

Percent Change in Average Household Spending by Age Group 1987 to 1997 (in 1997 Dollars) American Demographics April 1999

For more resources on this topic, go to www.nais.org slooney@cranbrook.edu