Current State of the Real Estate Market

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Presentation transcript:

Current State of the Real Estate Market TALKING POINTS We appreciate this opportunity to present to you the strong fit we see between [prospect] and Cartus. We’d like this to be an interactive discussion today, so at any point in the process, please interrupt – and we’ve built the presentation so we can quickly link to topics that are important to you. Note: please see optional cover images deck; also feel free to customize with a high-quality image of your servicing team. Note: throughout, do not place punctuation in your header, as this can break links. Jack Craven, SGMS, SCRP Vice President, Strategic Business Solutions Cartus

Overall Market Housing market in 2017 proved to be strong in Q1 Indicators are all positive Housing market in 2017 proved to be strong in Q1 Stabilization in the high-end markets Job growth is strong Home sale programs affected by increased values/lower inventory Low inventory is for rent & purchase

Real Estate Market Support Median Home Price Unemployment Underwater First-time Buyers Listing Inventory Total Sales Median Home Price: $234,900 Up 5.1% YOY Unemployment: 4.8% October 2009: 10% at peak Percentage of underwater homes: 10% 2010: 27.3% at peak Percentage of first-time buyers: 33% Typically represents 40% Months of listing inventory: 4.9 months 6 month’s supply equals a balanced market Total home sales: 5.61 million seasonally adjusted Up 1.9% YOY Source: RealtyTrac; Zillow; NAR; Bureau of Labor 3

United States Job Growth The driver of real estate activity 8.7 Million Jobs Lost Payroll changes 000’s Source: US Census Bureau 4

10 National Rental Rates 1 BEDROOM MEDIAN RENT PRICES January 2017 TOP North East New York, NY Boston, MA Washington, DC West Coast San Francisco, CA San Jose, CA Oakland, CA Los Angeles, CA Seattle, WA January 2017 Midwest Chicago, IL South Miami, FL Source: Zumper 5

Surplus/Shortage of Vacant Homes Rental Rates & Vacancies Surplus/Shortage of Vacant Homes Numbers in Millions Source: Freddie Mac 6

Rental Rates & Vacancies Transferee challenges Extremely low inventory levels Cost benefits of owning vs. renting Low supply will drive increased rents Assistance may be needed 7

First-Time Home Buyers What does this mean for your transferees? Most states are below the 40% first-time homebuyers Student debt Dodd-Frank 8

Student Loan Debt The cause of the missing first-time home buyers? 9

Student Debt & The Market 70% more students are getting loans Tripled in size in the last decade to $1.3 trillion First-time homebuyers historically average 40% of the market Typical student taking on twice as much debt Source: CFPB 10

Number of Borrowers (in Millions) Student Debt & The Market Number of Borrowers (in Millions) Source: CFPB 11

Mortgage Delinquency Rate Great Recession Percent # of Loans Source: Corelogic 12

Home Price Performance by State Q4 2015 – Q4 2016 United States 7% Source: Freddie Mac 13

Top 10 Hottest Suburbs Source: NAR 14

Supply & Demand Over 6 months supply 4 to 6 month supply Drives the market Over 6 months supply 4 to 6 month supply Under 4 month supply Oversupply Balanced Market Undersupply 15

Existing-Home Sales Sink 2.3 Percent April, 2017 2.3% decrease from March, 2017 Expected due to strong March sales New and existing inventory is NOT keeping up with the fast pace Demand is outstripping supply Inventory in April is at 3.8 month supply New heights in California: Statewide Median Value $537K (up 5.4%)

Housing Supply & Demand Tight housing supply levels Levels have shifted Sellers’ market Undersupply Limited supply increases values Corporate inventory Increased AV/BVO activity Appraisers having trouble keeping up 16

Appraiser Issues… Heavy decline in licensed real estate appraisers 72,000 licensed appraisers with 40,000 being active in residential appraisals (50% drop) Licensing standards rising, keeping new entrants from entering the profession Appraisers being stretched Appraisal management companies (AMC’s) Appraisal fees: doing more for less Turnaround times: everyone is rushed Technology/big data: the automated appraisal Forecasting 17

Forecasted Home Price by State 2017 Projections Source: Corelogic 18

2017 Projected Top 10 Metros 3 4 1 2 8 10 6 5 7 9 Boston- Cambridge Price: 6.1% Sales Growth: 6.3% Boston- Cambridge Price: 6.6% Sales Growth: 5.0% Portland- Vancouver 3 4 Price: 7.2% Sales Growth: 4.9% Sacramento- Roseville 1 Price: 4.2% Sales Growth: 7.6% Raleigh 2 8 Price: 6.9% Sales Growth: 6.0% Los Angeles- Anaheim 10 Price: 5.7% Sales Growth: 6.9% Riverside- San Bernardino 6 5 Price: 5.7% Sales Growth: 6.1% Jacksonville 7 Price: 5.9% Sales Growth: 7.2% Phoenix-Mesa- Scottsdale Price: 6.1% Sales Growth: 5.5% Tucson 9 Price: 5.6% Sales Growth: 6.1% Orlando- Kissimmee 19

Forecasted Appreciation Source: Home Price Expectation Survey 20

2017 Trends That Could Reshape Housing Expected to fuel demand for at least the next decade in the housing market. Millennials expected to make up 33 percent of buyers. Millennials now leaning towards renting vs. buying Baby boomers expected to make up 30 percent of buyers. 33% Millennials 30% Baby Boomers Midwestern cities will get more attention from millennials. Midwest 15/19 Strong Affordability Western markets continue to dominate top housing markets list GO WEST! The following metros have an average millennial market share of 42 percent or higher: Madison, Wis.; Columbus, Ohio; Omaha, Neb.; Des Moines, Iowa; and Minneapolis, Minn. . Source: FHFA, NAR 23

2017 Trends That Could Reshape Housing Better Affordability Smaller House Public Transportation Driving To Work Rental affordability will improve as incomes rise and growth in rents slows Cities will focus on denser development of smaller homes A new focus on housing close to public transit and urban centers The % of people who drive to work will rise for the first time in a decade Source: Zillow 24

QA

THANK YOU TALKING POINTS If needed: remove the thank you in the tab, and replace with whatever is applicable to the presentation. THANK YOU