Population and Economic Trends For Northern Colorado Transitions Population and Economic Trends For Northern Colorado EDCC 2017 Elizabeth Garner State Demography Office Colorado Department of Local Affairs Demography.dola.colorado.gov

Transitions to Watch Disparate growth across state. Industrial transitions Retail – consolidation Manufacturing – more automation Transportation – more automation Construction – more automation Aging – will impact economy. Increase racial and ethnic diversity Growing and slowing

Big Picture - 2015-2016 Pop Change US – 323.1 million, + 2.2 million or .7% Colorado - 5,540,500 Ranked 7th fastest 1.7% - UT, NV, ID, FL, WA, OR 8th absolute growth 91,700 – TX, FL, CA, WA, AZ, NC, GA Range in Colorado +14,000 -50

19 with negative growth from 2010-2016. This is an improvement from the past. 29 negative growth 2010-13 27 negative growth 2010-14 22 negative growth 2010-15 14 counties lost pop 2014- 2015 10 counties lost population 2015-2016

Weld 2nd fastest and 6th in total change since 2010 Larimer 5th fastest and 7th total since 2010

Age

State Demography Office v2015

Employment Transitions: Retail - Consolidation Manufacturing – automation Transportation – automation Warehousing - automation 48,000 job change since 2010 and about 80,000 people.

Economic Drivers

AGE

Why Are We Getting Old Fast? Currently very few people over the age 65. 6th lowest share of all states in US (13%) in 2015 Baby Boomers Born 1946 – 1964 1,360,000 Boomers in Colorado (25% of pop. in 2015) By 2030, Colorado’s population 65+ will be 77% larger than it was in 2015 growing from 719,000 to 1,270,000. (primarily from aging) Transition age distribution from “young” to more US average between 2015 and 2030. State Demography Office, Census Bureau

Growth in young adults due to migration Demographic Dividend AGE

Aging

Aging Issues Numbers Economic Driver - wealthier …. depends Impact on occupational mix Labor Force Housing Income – Downward Pressure Health Disabilities Transportation Public Finance – Downward Pressure

Labor Force Tightening Largest share of population in highest labor participation rates hit peak in 2010. Boomers aging out – but many staying longer Participation rate of 65+ increase from 14% in 1990 to 19% 2010 Approx. 1,000,000 workers aging out the next 20 years. Largest increase in leavers between 2015-2025 Female share of the labor force peaked in 2010 at 46%. Fewer Gen X Oldest Aged Industries - Education, Health, Utilities, Mining, Govt., Transportation. Higher un/under employment for 18-34 year olds during recession. Lowest unemployment region in lowest unemployment state. Estimated leavers based on age and participation rates. 2000-2010 = 300,000 2010 – 2020 = 400,000 2020 – 2030 = 600,000 Manufacturing a touch older than the median nationally - 42.2 Median age for all workers and 44.5 for Manufacturing. Challenge nationally attracting some younger workers.  They were in the bottom third of all industries in terms of their share of Millennial workers in 2015 at 27% Millennial vs. 35% for all industries. In 2015 there were roughly the same number of 55-64 year olds as there were 25 to 34 year olds working in manufacturing at about 29,500 for each age group. However for all industries there were 558K 25 to 34 year olds and only 393K 55-64 year olds

Median Home Value

Commuting to Jobs In Larimer and Weld 2014 Data Source: https://onthemap.ces.census.gov/

More Racially and Ethnically Diverse

This makes it look like aging Hispanics may not be a big deal but between 2000 and 2010 Hispanic 65+ increased by 56% compared to the entire population which increased by 32% Forecast to increase by 97% Census Bureau

Growing and Slowing

State Demography Office v2015

2040- 7.924 Change from 2010-2040 State – 2.8 mill Front Range – 2.4 mil Denver Metro – 1.4 NFR - 534K SFR - 390K WS - 342K CM - 61K SLV - 11K EP - 64K Non Front Range - 470

Larimer and Weld Growth Rates

Forecast – Fastest Region in State 175,000 jobs 470K people

Summary in Northern Colorado Migration – how much, where, and can we compete for the best and the brightest? The Right Fit Aging – we are getting old fast, is NOCO ready for the changes to the labor force, income, industrial mix (job growth), housing, etc. Ethnic/race diversity – increasing and aging into labor force. Educational attainment gap continues putting downward pressure on income and labor force. Industrial transitions – Ready for the transitions? What are your biggest risks or constraints? Automation, Consolidation - Retail Plan for the Transitions – Discuss and Design, Implement when needed. What would we do if…….

Thank you State Demography Office Department of Local Affairs Elizabeth Garner Elizabeth.garner@state.co.us 303-864-7750 Demography.dola.colorado.gov